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For what it’s worth here are a few more thoughts on the current situation. Regards options going forward , it may be that a co development partner comes in , or some kind of rights issue, fund raise etc allows business to go forward- but my personal opinion ( as stated in an earlier post ) is that phase 111 data needs to be seen before big pharma attempts a takeover. The reason I say this is the results so far are encouraging,( but with small numbers ), certainly not stratospheric, no matter what Marku says. I also get the impression that there is still work to be done determining what the best combination therapy might be and which cancer type is best suited to treatment with Bex. This does not necessarily mean a completed Phase 111 trial but at least some interim data with a larger cohort. This of course is just my view , but what I think is much more certain is that a buyout will not happen any time soon at the current SP- Faron cannot let this happen unless they are on the rocks. If you go back over the director share deals then there is the standout deal where Jonathan Knowles bought 63 000 shares at £ 7.25 in 2017. There is no way he has averaged down over the years to anything like this, so takes a big hit if a takeover comes in at 2-3 times current SP which would be a good result in most people’s estimation. Then again how much clout does he have ? – he is the head of the SAB , and formerly on the board of directors but amount in question might be small beer to him . Who knows? Other insiders take a sizable hit as well, until the SP gets back to £ 5-6 .
What I would like to know,- is the current status – blocked bank account- a sort of legal position which is automatically set in motion due to some regulatory rules, and the situation is usually resolved amicably and everything carries on as normal , or is this really bad news with a very uncertain outlook? Any thoughts ? I am in here to the end, and there will be answers one day !
Yes Sax, so far they’ve done marvelous job!
So if they announce a rights issue I am pretty sure biggest owners do have something to believe in it. With the same breath I could guess them being able to convince anybody else? If that’s enough to RNS already, we’ll see hopefully soon.
Maybe what needs to be appreciated is that Faron are still at the cutting edge of an unknown science . Clever-1 up until now has no track record to speak of . Faron have been the only ones to identify it , and work on their thesis , and to prove that up . Matins gave them a huge amount of information . But at every stage they were learning more - and actually giving themselves more headaches ( remember soluble Clever 1 ? )
Possibly they were hoping to strike it lucky on one cohort in MATINS as a monotherapy on solid tumours , but despite good data , nothing was big enough to force a BPs hand .
What it did help do was give them biomarkers , and proof of the IFNy connection etc .
Bexmab data then gave them a huge boost again in proving that Clever-1 was key . Given a clear shot at the right patients - it is proving beyond any doubt that it is clinically effective .
But we have to remember again that if Faron had sold out/partnered 1-2 yrs ago , it would have been at a paltry amount compared to what it is becoming worth now . This is where the patience comes in . That's why we have seen a build up in management and infrastructure . The high profile BOD appointments .
I follow plenty of very promising looking companies , and you could say the same thing about many of them - surely if it was this good , someone would have bought them out or made an offer by now ?
I'm coming to the realisation ( finally ) that the % of companies bought out for a dream price tag is very much the minority . More common seems to be the situation where they run out of money and perish , to be picked up for peanuts , or even just ignored despite having huge promise ( don't disrupt the market reasons ) .
So that's where we are at the moment .
Until Faron start generating cash - and standing on their own two feet - they were always going to be open to attack ( and I think that's what this was ) .
However- they are very close to getting Bex to market in some shape or form , and investors will hopefully see how once that happens , the future pipelines and developments will become hugely derisked financially .
As for sentiment - I guess that will have to wait until March 13th or the next RNS . Market is very fickle in the short term , but all will be forgotten if the SP doubles no doubt .
Jmax, I'm beginning to feel the same way. Faron are after being very successful In raising funds through their own very close Investors. All be It at a much reduced SP. So you have to ask Why the same hasn't occurred this time?. As you say. I find It hard to believe that with the great reports on Bex why hasn't Faron been bought out?. What sentiment Is there In the Co after that latest event.
Btw. would it mean you could get one share with 1,5£ against 10 shares to fill your obligation in financing 10m. With the need of 25m it could mean three shares each with 1,5£ a share and one share for free?
If the product had the potential that some think it has, would this situation have arisen, would a potential partner have stepped in by now ?
Also, how many other companies are trying to develop similar products ? Farn is a wait and see for now.
I think you are correct with your calculation.
Rising 10m when Mcap 100m would make 10/100=10% and with Mcap 250m it would make 10/250=4% . And if 10m wouldn’t be enough and the need were 25m, the respective percentages would be 25% and 10%. Huge differences that break mental covenants.
In both Mcap you need the same sum of money per share, financing 10m would mean 15c and financing 25m would mean 37,5c. With amount 5k shares it makes 750£ or 1875£ out of your pocket and with amount 5m shares 750000£ or 1875000£ out of your pockets. To negotiate these sums with your own bankers can be different when your additional need is +10% or +25% to your current wealth. Of course in Finland some people do grow money in trees literally.
I think the future financing will be a combination of vehicles. When successful with the RI, then easier to lift money elsewhere too and conversely. Positive news could change the situation.
Luckenbach
I agree a rights issue at low share price levels is not great but if they now do a Rights Issue to raise say £10 million we will all have to contribute 15% monetary value of our current number of shares so there is no dilution of % of ownership, we just have to pay more to maintain that %. As you say potentially the biggest losers could be the ones who were not able to participate in the issue even though they own shares but this very much depends on what the share price does. Maybe someone on here could correct me if my understanding is wrong.
ATB
SBT
It wouldn’t make any sense to make a rights issue when the SP on purpose at lowest levels. Why? Let’s think the company would need a certain sum of money to continue with clinical trials. The only thing that matters is how big proportion that sum is compared to the market cap. When the SP at lowest the dilution biggest. Who would like it? Biggest losers would be the ones who were not able to participate the issue even though they own shares and were entitled to use the rights.
Slight relief seeing this move up I can say . Still at a silly price - but maybe this hint of a rights issue will mean that instead of selling down before a placing , investors need to be holding or coming in . I guess you can sell your rights , but its not like the usual raise . Once the ship is steady - its back to business - which before Armageddon was looking pretty promising ! ( and I'll finish the week on a ! )
On bell
I’ve bought a few more today, but it would only let me buy in 500 chunks, I should have bought them yesterday at £1.29 when I had the chance!
A 5k buy spikes the price....
Seeing a slight uptick in the last couple of days . Not big volume , but I wonder if a few are now starting to accumulate shares should a rights issue occur . Given that the SP sunk by pretty much 50% , the air has already come out of the bag . Small discount from these levels won't be permanent - but you have to be in it to win it as they say .
It’s already less than two months to the AGM so technically they could present the meeting invitation anytime soon when possible. My guess is that if it will land at the end of the week after the 13th of Marc CEO/CFO presentation, then we’ll know what’s the market confidence in terms of SP for the possible RI. If it comes earlier then no RI but a limited one possible anytime? But let’s wait and see. The earlier the invitation lands the sooner we know if we have it in hands or pants.
Of course there can be any other kind of good reasons for any other outcome and order of proceedings.
Markku at the upcoming event. Needs to explain to an Interpreter exactly What Did Happen. The Interpreter then to present that reason and to remain there to present what answers Markku gives In the Q&A afterwards. With respect to Markku. I'd like to be able to speak Finish as well as Markku does. But he's not good enough for myself to understand a lot of what he says. There can be NO fudges this time. AIMO
I know its galling Drac . Fundraises are always one step back to make 2 steps forward , but so long as their isn't any mischief by Faron , the March day should lay things out , and if theyve got any sense , they'll pump the b'jesus out of the proposition up until the AGM - with Bexmab updates and potential values . Just having some clarity and confirmation that Faron will be able to proceed should stick 80p on the SP before they even start the book build . We are only at £1.25 because of the uncertainty ( he says with glass half full lol )
So , as expected for any reputable company - management monitors liquidity , and the monthly operations are tailored to the budget , and approved by the BOD . So what happened ?
Faron are running operations in Finland , and the US . Lots of moving parts , and sometimes the unexpected does happen .
Did they get caught short underestimating how inflexible IPF would be right off the bat - when perhaps they just needed a little time to get straight . Very embarrassing . Either way - we were either going to see a placing , which to be honest most LTHs wouldn't have minded seeing how close a P2 completion for Bexmab would be , or a partner would step up and join .
From Markkus last interview presentation , I think I heard him say that to get the MDS/AML indication to market alone was not out of the question . It was something they would consider . Things were starting to hot up . Despite a high probability of a fundraise , the SP was holding quite steady right up until the IPF RNS .
We were running on fumes - that is a fair comment I would say - but something out of the ordinary caused this I believe .
Sax that £15 million placement would be Ok IF the SP was still £3. Buck sake If that happens now means another Large bite taken from the usual Suspects the LTSHs. Faron with mishaps before re Traumakine mistake. Trusting and giving free doses to the WHO and the wasted time taken to satisfy the request. Those mistakes should have put Faron on high alert. This is almost unforgivable If this a method to lead to a cheap takeover. We SHs can forget about getting any protection from any State Watchdog. AIMO.
Just been scanning last years annual report ( that covered 2022 )
To protect the continuity of the
Group’s operations, sufficient liquidity and capital has to
be maintained. The Group aims to have funds to finance
its operations for the foreseeable future. The Group can
influence the amount of capital by adapting its cost basis
considering available financing. Management monitors
liquidity on the basis of the amount of funds. These are
reported to the Board of Directors on a monthly basis.
The Company’s Board of Directors approves
the operational plans and budget and monitors the
implementation of these plans and the financial status of
the Group on a monthly basis.
On 28 February 2022, Faron entered into agreement with
IPF Fund II SCA (IPF), which contained
• a Euro term loan facility (Tranche A) of up to 10
million euro,
• a Euro term loan facility (Tranche B) of up to 5
million euro,
• the possibility of Faron to request up to an additional
15 million euro facility (Tranche C), subject to IPFs
approval process and certain conditions to be met,
• Faron to issue warrants to IPF as part of the loan
agreement, based on the amount drawn in the
above facilities
The first tranche (Tranche A) of EUR 10 million was
drawn down upon signing the agreements. Faron pays a
cash interest on drawn amounts of the above facilities plus
a pay-in-kind interest (PIK) for drawn amounts in Tranche
A. In addition, Faron has paid a structuring fee of the
committed facility on the utilization date of the respective
facility. Tranche A has been measured at amortised cost
using the effective interest method. The carrying amount
of the Tranche A was EUR 9,557 thousand.
The interest on Tranche A facility amounted to EUR
1,225 thousand. The loan facility is subject to financial
covenants. The covenants measure the Group’s gearing
ratio and cash runway. Given that some of the inputs to
the valuation technique rely on unobservable market data,
loan fair values are classified in Level 3.
Liabilities designated at fair value through profit or loss
primarily represent warrants which entitle IPF to subscribe
for new ordinary shares in the Company. The subscription
price per share is the lower of EUR 1,85 or the subscription
price per share in any subsequent share offering
undertaken by the Company. The warrants were issued as
part of the loan agreement for no consideration paid and
have been treated as a separate financial instrument. On
initial recognition of the agreement, the fair value of the
loan facility was reduced by the structuring fee and other
fees that are integral part of the loan and by the implicit
costs of the warrants. On subsequent reporting dates the
changes in fair value of warrants have been accounted
separately through profit and loss. The warrants are
classified as level 2 instruments and their fair value is
determined using techniques whose inputs are based on
observable market data
having 4 million was the issue as we were supposed to have 6 in the bank at all times to satisfy the nervous nellies at ipf .
how we went into the red by nearly 2 million is still the ( 2 million euro) question , knowing that by letting that happen it would trigger pandemonium .
the acceleration of bexmab was costly - burning more than they originally planned - but they were getting the patients recruited and fast . top sites probably don't come cheap , but what i don't get is that they would see this coming , and worst case , just do another 5-7 mil placing with usual suspects - and we gain another 3-4 months of breathing space .
that's what i can't work out . what else was going on - that mean't they weren't looking at a placing ?
two other less obvious scenarios - one that luch touched on also -
1.) that they did this on purpose in some kind of proactive self defence . we don't know the details of the ipf agreement - but we do know that its been renegotiated once - and ipf got some very cheap options out of it . pure speculation , but perhaps faron saw this as a ' call my bluff' moment - allowing them to straighten things out on their own terms , albeit a bit of a nuclear option in the short term . this is a family company - very honest - but also very protective , and fiercely proud of what they have achieved , and who has helped them get to where they are .
2.) that during heightened negotiations - promises were made - and then broken - leaving faron high and dry . that's it - simple **** up . they can't say much else as they are doing what they can . if ipf don't play ball , then they'll just have to wait for the agm . the march13th day should answer the basics . i would then say its most probable that having gone this far into the abyss - faron might as well do one big final raise - say £15-20m , we all take it on the chin - and push bexmab through to completion . we are so close now .
knowing whats coming with bexmab - if that can get us to the point of finally commercialising bex , and then obtaining a partner for long term development - it will be worth it .
Strictly, snipers prey
They all need……Traumakine
We need something.. even if its a RNS saying we have a solution we are working on and all is well!
We have 4 plus million cash, what's the issue!
Does someone want to takeover the company at such a low SP?
Nokia lost our cause they were in the sauna too long.. was Nokia Finland or Sweden.. all the same from here!
The BOD and big investors aka Timo can't be happy plus the pension funds and euro money grants ect..
We need to ask big questions at the next Q&A
The CEO Trust the CFO to do their Job.. is this why the last CFO left? Did he mess up? Is. The new CFO to blame.. put a head on the block, that normally gives the markets confidence!
I bought more last week after the RNS so I'm invested here!
Also in for the long haul so SP today, doesn't mater if we strike a good deal!
Lastly.. do you get exrea points if you end sentences with a !
…if SNG belong to that list too?
The 14th was updated to 13th!
Now they have at least three weeks between the presentation and the AGM. The invitation to the AGM needs to be presented at least three weeks before the meeting and now it can be presented even two days after the presentation.