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I'm with you on this one Drac, Faron have treated the smaller long term investors apallingly over the so called "hiccup"- SP has not recovered to any significant extent, - some kind of explanation is the least we deserve. Maybe the larger institutional investors were given some some kind of reassurance and promise it would soon recover but we will never know..
Its worth pointing out that Gilead bought Forty Seven to get hold of Magrolimab , which at the time- 4 years ago- had gone through a promising phase 1B , for myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) and acute myeloid leukemia What happened next is that the FDA approved a phase 2 , and subsequently a phase 3 for these conditions- they did not expedite any accelerated programme despite there being an unmet need scenario. This was in the face of serious lobbying from Gilead who are a USA company with a lot of financial clout. If you do your research you will find that The FDA has stopped the phase 3 trials https://www.gilead.com/news-and-press/company-statements/gilead-statement-on-discontinuation-of-phase-3-enhance-3-study-in-aml. This is due to a higher death rate in the treated cohort. The likelyhood of BEX getting an accelerated trial/ approval with a small cohort is Zero. If they went down this route every time a small phase 1 posted stunning results they would be killing people left right and centre, plus litigation would be unreal. As always a full one properly designed and approved phase 111 - if successful- is what is needed for approval.
Drac, I guess like all CEOs Marku had to put a rather optimistic spin on things but ultimately it just makes new investors very wary and only makes raising funds even more of a white knuckle ride. I would have more respect if CEOs just told it how it is, instead endless jam tomorrow stories..
Any income stream Faron may get from Bex is 4-5 years away- this is the time scale to get through Phase 11, get approval for phase 111, get funded by whatever means possible , run phase 111 and finally get approval and then launch. Realistically the best we can hope for , medium term as investors ( everyones definition of this is different )is a partner to come in which will hopefully push the SP up. Then its decision time- wait for further developments or take profits - whichever way you cut it, its going to take years,-unless phase 11 is absolutely stunning- then a buyout may happen but I doubt it. Meanwhile Faron have a ton of money to raise.
That whole " hiccup " episode does stink. I find it hard to believe an experienced CEO such as Marku ( plus other people in the management team ) who has been involved in commercial Biopharma for a long time , took their eye off the ball and allowed it to happen.
For what it’s worth here are a few more thoughts on the current situation. Regards options going forward , it may be that a co development partner comes in , or some kind of rights issue, fund raise etc allows business to go forward- but my personal opinion ( as stated in an earlier post ) is that phase 111 data needs to be seen before big pharma attempts a takeover. The reason I say this is the results so far are encouraging,( but with small numbers ), certainly not stratospheric, no matter what Marku says. I also get the impression that there is still work to be done determining what the best combination therapy might be and which cancer type is best suited to treatment with Bex. This does not necessarily mean a completed Phase 111 trial but at least some interim data with a larger cohort. This of course is just my view , but what I think is much more certain is that a buyout will not happen any time soon at the current SP- Faron cannot let this happen unless they are on the rocks. If you go back over the director share deals then there is the standout deal where Jonathan Knowles bought 63 000 shares at £ 7.25 in 2017. There is no way he has averaged down over the years to anything like this, so takes a big hit if a takeover comes in at 2-3 times current SP which would be a good result in most people’s estimation. Then again how much clout does he have ? – he is the head of the SAB , and formerly on the board of directors but amount in question might be small beer to him . Who knows? Other insiders take a sizable hit as well, until the SP gets back to £ 5-6 .
What I would like to know,- is the current status – blocked bank account- a sort of legal position which is automatically set in motion due to some regulatory rules, and the situation is usually resolved amicably and everything carries on as normal , or is this really bad news with a very uncertain outlook? Any thoughts ? I am in here to the end, and there will be answers one day !
This situation needs clarification asap from Faron. In general the investors in this type of company -ie high risk but potentially high reward are supportive over the years.- The management at Faron have been doing a decent job - they have been a bit less than transparent at time but no less than other boards . Obviously their hand has been forced but as share holders we deserve an explanation and reassurance-soon. If this goes on the SH will drop further which gives Faron fewer options for getting back on track. If no investors are lined up for a share option - or Timo gets nervous then it may come down to a fire sale which leaves everyone up the creek.
If you invest in early stage , one lead candidate companiies such as Faron then it's imperative to fully understand the timeframes involved. Despite Marku, plus other folks invested on this board thinking we are in the final stages of approval , the reality is more like 4 years before BEX gets approved- if it does.
BEX has only just got going in phase 2, nothing gets approved in these risk adverse times without a full- on placebo controlled double blind trial. These are , expensive, time consuming and uncertain. Bex has shown potential for sure but there are serious hurdles to still get over - anyone who thinks we are all going to be rich in a years time is in for a disappointment. If big pharma is going to come to the rescue then they are going to want to see some serious phase 3 data before they put their money down- no matter how much Marku talks it up , that is the bottom line.
Part of the problem is that sentiment has really gone against SMT over the last year or so , you can call this totally rational, as who likes to see their pension pot go down the chute-many of the public investors are reasonably well off middle aged folks who cannot wait for ever to see things turn around. You could also call it totally irrational as history tells us economies invariably turn around, so be patient. In my view many investors piled in when the returns just kept coming without really having a decent understanding of the portfolio and the risks associated with Chinese element and that of the so called disruptive companies- Tesla, Moderna, Ginko etc. They are now receiving a tough lesson. If you've no idea when these outfits will come good then you get out- or more likely do not even get in ...
From the new website, looks like Traumakine with respect to ARDS is really dead and buried now- this was predicable right from the YODA trial days, when Marku indicated that they would not be putting any more money into Traumakine trials- it was a very smart move though, to get serious compensation from the German company who were contracted to produce it, then pulled out.If faron genuinely believed Traumakine had future in ARDS they would have funded and re run the INTEREST trial . I reckon Traumakine does have a clinical benefit somewhere-yet to be found- the question is - does it have a commercial future ? - not enough IMO for big Pharma to shell out for what is only a delivery system of a biologic with no patent protection. As for Bex , its a waiting game- one I'm prepared to hang in for.
Right now to progress the development of Bex through phase 111 Faron have to partner or get handed some significant money- or get bought out. The lack of communication may mean- being opitimistic - that Faron are into some serious negotiation . Big pharma have had plenty of time to run the rule over this outfit maybe it really going to be Farons day. Only time will tell. Another good set of results might settle it ?
I am well in the hole with SMT , but ever optimistic , will hold out for an upturn. Its been said by many commentators but here it is again. The massive discount is due to the market just not believing the value SMT has put on the unlisted portion of the fund, until there clear evidence to support their valuation. Unless some IPOs take place or buyouts, or others ways of clarifying the value of the unlisted segment this disconnect will persist. Unfortunately the IPO market is slow right now so its going to be a long wait long wait to get this fund back on track. All IMO of course.
Some of the writers for the Motley Fool are clearly useless- eg , this morning in the Motley Fool James beard when talking up SMT states that ASML - one of the large holdings- cannot make semiconductors fast enough to meet demand. Someone should point out to him ASML do not make semiconductors- they make machines which enable manufacturers to produce chips. Somewhat different.
What I like about the Faron management , is that after the Traumakine dive , they did not panic but methodically got on working out why Traumakine didn't act as expected. They then got on with developing Bex , raised money and remained pretty stable re personnel. The Truamakine outcome would have sunk many other small pharmas. Marku is a seasoned pro who has done this before , so although timescales might be longer than a lot of get quick merchants would like , I trust the
management team to get the job done.
Going alone you are looking at 3- 4 years to market- a phase 3 has to be designed , approved , funded, run and data analysed. A submission has to be made to the relevant authorities depending on where the launch takes place. Finally someone has to be ready go out and promote it to the clinicians- most likely a partner or a licensee. Setting up a sales organisation from scratch would take another year or so plus a lot of investement. Knowing what the founders and board have done before now, they must be pushing for a decent partnership tie in rather than going the whole distance themselves. What may speed things up is, if the therapy gets some kind of accelerated development status -if the phase 111 interim results are stunning. Its almost 5 years since traumakine tanked and despite Marku talking it up at various times it has got nowhere near the market, although more is known about the pharmacology.
Going alone you are looking at 3- 4 years to market- a phase 3 has to be designed , approved , funded, run and data analysed. A submission has to be made to the relevant authorities depending on where the launch takes place. Finally someone has to be ready go out and promote it to the clinicians- most likely a partner or a licensee. Setting up a sales organisation from scratch would take another year or so plus a lot of investement. Knowing what the founders and board have done before now, they must be pushing for a decent partnership tie in rather than going the whole distance themselves. What may speed things up is, if the therapy gets some kind of accelerated development status -if the phase 111 interim results are stunning. Its almost 5 years since traumakine tanked and despite Marku talking it up at various times it has got nowhere near the market, although more is known about the pharmacology.
I guess the market is going to take a pretty harsh view of SMT until some of the unquoted investments start coming good or at least the worth of them becomes less opaque. Therefore I predict a rough ride for a bit longer yet.