Member Info for Dystopian

If you invest in early stage , one lead candidate companiies such as Faron then it's imperative to fully understand the timeframes involved. Despite Marku, plus other folks invested on this board thinking we are in the final stages of approval , the reality is more like 4 years before BEX gets approved- if it does.

BEX has only just got going in phase 2, nothing gets approved in these risk adverse times without a full- on placebo controlled double blind trial. These are , expensive, time consuming and uncertain. Bex has shown potential for sure but there are serious hurdles to still get over - anyone who thinks we are all going to be rich in a years time is in for a disappointment. If big pharma is going to come to the rescue then they are going to want to see some serious phase 3 data before they put their money down- no matter how much Marku talks it up , that is the bottom line.

Part of the problem is that sentiment has really gone against SMT over the last year or so , you can call this totally rational, as who likes to see their pension pot go down the chute-many of the public investors are reasonably well off middle aged folks who cannot wait for ever to see things turn around. You could also call it totally irrational as history tells us economies invariably turn around, so be patient. In my view many investors piled in when the returns just kept coming without really having a decent understanding of the portfolio and the risks associated with Chinese element and that of the so called disruptive companies- Tesla, Moderna, Ginko etc. They are now receiving a tough lesson. If you've no idea when these outfits will come good then you get out- or more likely do not even get in ...

From the new website, looks like Traumakine with respect to ARDS is really dead and buried now- this was predicable right from the YODA trial days, when Marku indicated that they would not be putting any more money into Traumakine trials- it was a very smart move though, to get serious compensation from the German company who were contracted to produce it, then pulled out.If faron genuinely believed Traumakine had future in ARDS they would have funded and re run the INTEREST trial . I reckon Traumakine does have a clinical benefit somewhere-yet to be found- the question is - does it have a commercial future ? - not enough IMO for big Pharma to shell out for what is only a delivery system of a biologic with no patent protection. As for Bex , its a waiting game- one I'm prepared to hang in for.

Right now to progress the development of Bex through phase 111 Faron have to partner or get handed some significant money- or get bought out. The lack of communication may mean- being opitimistic - that Faron are into some serious negotiation . Big pharma have had plenty of time to run the rule over this outfit maybe it really going to be Farons day. Only time will tell. Another good set of results might settle it ?

I am well in the hole with SMT , but ever optimistic , will hold out for an upturn. Its been said by many commentators but here it is again. The massive discount is due to the market just not believing the value SMT has put on the unlisted portion of the fund, until there clear evidence to support their valuation. Unless some IPOs take place or buyouts, or others ways of clarifying the value of the unlisted segment this disconnect will persist. Unfortunately the IPO market is slow right now so its going to be a long wait long wait to get this fund back on track. All IMO of course.

One of the few things you can say is that the fund cannot do a Woodford ( well I think it can't...) Everything else is opinion and conjecture right now. So, luck to the brave.

Some of the writers for the Motley Fool are clearly useless- eg , this morning in the Motley Fool James beard when talking up SMT states that ASML - one of the large holdings- cannot make semiconductors fast enough to meet demand. Someone should point out to him ASML do not make semiconductors- they make machines which enable manufacturers to produce chips. Somewhat different.

What I like about the Faron management , is that after the Traumakine dive , they did not panic but methodically got on working out why Traumakine didn't act as expected. They then got on with developing Bex , raised money and remained pretty stable re personnel. The Truamakine outcome would have sunk many other small pharmas. Marku is a seasoned pro who has done this before , so although timescales might be longer than a lot of get quick merchants would like , I trust the
management team to get the job done.

Going alone you are looking at 3- 4 years to market- a phase 3 has to be designed , approved , funded, run and data analysed. A submission has to be made to the relevant authorities depending on where the launch takes place. Finally someone has to be ready go out and promote it to the clinicians- most likely a partner or a licensee. Setting up a sales organisation from scratch would take another year or so plus a lot of investement. Knowing what the founders and board have done before now, they must be pushing for a decent partnership tie in rather than going the whole distance themselves. What may speed things up is, if the therapy gets some kind of accelerated development status -if the phase 111 interim results are stunning. Its almost 5 years since traumakine tanked and despite Marku talking it up at various times it has got nowhere near the market, although more is known about the pharmacology.

Going alone you are looking at 3- 4 years to market- a phase 3 has to be designed , approved , funded, run and data analysed. A submission has to be made to the relevant authorities depending on where the launch takes place. Finally someone has to be ready go out and promote it to the clinicians- most likely a partner or a licensee. Setting up a sales organisation from scratch would take another year or so plus a lot of investement. Knowing what the founders and board have done before now, they must be pushing for a decent partnership tie in rather than going the whole distance themselves. What may speed things up is, if the therapy gets some kind of accelerated development status -if the phase 111 interim results are stunning. Its almost 5 years since traumakine tanked and despite Marku talking it up at various times it has got nowhere near the market, although more is known about the pharmacology.

I guess the market is going to take a pretty harsh view of SMT until some of the unquoted investments start coming good or at least the worth of them becomes less opaque. Therefore I predict a rough ride for a bit longer yet.

Crazy times indeed, the third largest holding , Illumina ( 3.95 % ) went up 21 %, today , at the time of this post, but its done sweet Fanny Adams for the share price. Makes you wonder if the common man , wanting a return on investment would go anywhere near the equity market. So much for Mrs Thatchers " share owning democracy. More like a white knuckle ride with the timing completely out of your hands unless you aim on living to about 150..

I'm not convinced Z was a real person. More like a group of city wide boys having a laugh to see if they could make the price jump, or possibly some kind of 'bot . Nobody could possibly waste that much time spouting out garbage which had no influence on the price whatsoever..or could they?

Are we expecting some grim new when NASDAQ opens? I would not expect a fund with a reasonable spread among big name companies to just drop this amount, in literally minutes.

Are we seeing a delayed Bloomberg report effect? Seems like a rather large fall today.

By the look of it there is money out here to buy promising drug candidates, despite the uncertain economic uncertainty - the pipeline from Teneotwo is only in phase 1 ( haematological cancers ) but AZ have got in there with a big commitment. AZ are actually being careful , since it is still unproven- 100 million up front then milestone payments on development milestones, sales etc.

https://pharmaphorum.com/news/astrazeneca-agrees-1-3bn-deal-to-buy-oncology-player-teneotwo/

Faron is a one trick pony , Traumakine is a lost cause in the short medium term so the way I look at it is to consider the statistical likelyhood of success. The stats have not changed for years- ie compounds going into Phase 1 have approximately 10 % chance of going to approval, those into phase 111 , much better- about 50 % depending on who you ask. So being optimistic lets say Bex will go onto phase 111- subject to funding , approval etc. If so, it's still essentially a toss of a coin if it gets approved. All the interviews, talk from Marku etc can't change the fact it's a 50/50 gamble . Of course I hope interim results send the SP up or a buyout is on the cards and waiting years for approval is not required. I'm OK with the odds but anyone buying in now - at what could be all all time low (?) -should be aware.

The question is more like could it drop to a fiver- I hope not.....

Accord to HL 15 % is correct.....

Not good what happened with Synairgen- we were there back in 2018. It will be very interesting to see how they proceed from here. One things for sure- if it takes them as long as it did Faron to come up with , and implement a plan, then the stock holders are in for a very long wait.