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All right - here are the facts:
1. Evraz plc has more than 3 bln usd in debt (you can see for yourself on their web site)
2. Evraz is losing it's Russian based assets in several months under the 670 law. This almost all of the business.
3. Evraz plc is right now in default on it's debt because they can't move money from Russia and sanctioned to death
4. Evraz plc has North America assets unreachable for the Rus Gov which were unprofitable even on the EBITDA level for many years but 2022-2023 seem to be fine for them. EBITDA (not profit!) for NA assets was 2019 = 38 mln usd, 2020 = minus 28 mln, 2021 = 321 mln, 2022 = 620 mln. Average ebitda = 238 mln a year, ebitda multiple 5, price 238*5 = 1200 mln, which is not enough to cover the debt.
6. There might be some compensation from the Evraz Russia for the seized assets, but the Gov regulation explicitly states that it would be frozen in Russia on the frozen account.
so basically any high hopes above 1 USD per share would be on that the war ends tomorrow and Russia gets the reserves back and unfreezes the compensation, which in return helps Evraz plc avoid upcoming bankruptcy.
Most have written these off as have I
Hi AndreyAA I think you were fine with your argument until you stated 'helps Evraz plc avoid upcoming bankruptcy' - why would you then want to buy any shares in a company that is about to go bankrupt? I think their is nothing wrong with your offer and if people wish to take $1 a share that is their call. However it is not truthful to state that the company is near bankrupt - indeed the company themselves have stated they have the money to pay the bonds and also RASP is also making a lot of money and owes them a lot of money (including dividends). I think that if you just keep factual and state - i will buy Evraz shares for $1 as I see value in them as I am a Russian and will benefit form the Russian law changes that is fine and people can make up their own mind what to do. No need to make up stuff is all i say.
If im honest Andrey, Id rather lose my money than sell to someone in Russia who will benefit.
The company cannot tell you anything on the financial state of the company because they cannot get an auditor to verify what they have to say, which kind of underpins the while shareholder communication process/system.
Those be the facts.
Nobody knows how this will end. Reports that Russian elites dont want to be separated from the west for years. Other reports that Putin is dead lol. I certainly wont be selling for a dollar.
Andrey,
You write facts which are NOT correct.
1. End of 2021 we knew the NET Debt position. We also know that RASP has paid all debt off, NA Debt position is down and as well that no Divi was paid for close 2 years which bring out NEBT DEBT to close zero!
2. Thats not what the law is saying. Fact is the law is saying that non russian share holders divi will be accrued (when not payable). Identifiable Beneficiaries (non russian) may as well receive Divi directly. As well if it should be a clean cut, there will be a compensation based on market value.
3. When you compare competition in US, you know that Evraz NA has a multibillion value. Worthington Industries is such competition in NA. You know the NA Asset will be on its own protect non russian holders with a value way way north of 1$.
4. At a sale of NA, financials of 1-2 years will be reflected and growth potential of the future. Stop to talk complete rubbish … thats known Industry standards. NA was nicely developed over 15 years to be that high end engine.
We all know that you drive your own Agenda and talking nonsense / missing many facts!
WoW,
We have RASP financials and 2022 NA financials too.
If Russia Gov force Evraz into ESO, Evraz need to provide a local audited position and most likely for 31.12.23.
Personal not worried about what Andrey is saying …. RA has billions frozen by UK Gov and is not a bandit. Guess if any ESO comes we will get a deal constructed similar to Yandex
Andrey,
Based on what people write, you see that we are all legit investors in Evraz. We dont believe what you say, people clearly see what you try to do.
We waited 2 years and will wait for the final solution. Try better to look for a other business you like to invest.
Have a great evening
All right - just post a price you would buy 30 000 Evraz shares. I can start - i can buy at $1. My sole hope is getting into ESO, if i were a foreigner I would honestly sell at $1.
'WoW,
We have RASP financials and 2022 NA financials too.
If Russia Gov force Evraz into ESO, Evraz need to provide a local audited position and most likely for 31.12.23. '
Who have they been audited by?
If the ESO happens why would Evraz accommodate anything and how would it be in their interests and which auditor would take that appointment?
Wolf, NA here the link :
https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/08311287/filing-history
Formal audited report. Auditor is from US and approved by FCA.
NA made 620M USD Ebitda in 2022
Nice Link, I see the cash element has increased by over $100 Million, probably due to the fact they cant pay any out to shareholders, so this will grow as long as the war continues next year it will double again!!!!!
If and when EVRAZ re-lists it will bounce very high!!!!
If the war stop and they can make a deal . How long can EVR share trade again on LSE ? One more year to clean off sanctioned or longer than that?
18 Months after war ends !
Evraz bosses have to be mentally ill to relist after what has happened to them from sanctions and also the end of the war does not mean the end of sanctions. Iran is still sanctioned for 40 years after everything has happened.
Perhaps the Russian government will want to be back to ' normal ' asap and looks like Europe and USA very forgiving if they need something, they'll move on to the next war and all will be forgotten? It's repetitive behaviour....
Iran has nothing the west wants or needs, Russia has everything the west wants and needs.
Sanctions for individuals were quick released back in 2014.
Will be the same case here
"Russia has everything the west wants and needs"
Really?
What?
That cannot be sourced from elsewhere (like it's being now).
I think when Mac Donalds are back in Russia, the sanctions will be lifted by then, Russians Havnt had a decent Burger and fries since they have upped sticks
Sanctions for individuals were quick released back in 2014.
Will be the same case here
no they were not. Sanctioned individuals almost always remain the the SDN lists forever. Russia is now basically part of China - 90% of everything is Chinese now, so there is no solution in sight since China is viewed as the top rival of the west.
Wait and see watch
Evraz will be first out of sanction status
The UK government were having beef with RA long before the war started ....
The idea that the war will end and sanctions will be lifted allowing him to carry on enjoying the ownership of this company is fanciful at best if not completely idiotic.
"The UK government were having beef with RA long before the war started ...."
That's very interesting, can you post any links to examples of that?
GLASH