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Wolf,
Good that we have Evraz NA
Regards
Evraz
No one really has a clue how much money any of the subsidiaries are making as they haven't been audited by western standards. No audit, legal firm or bank will touch them at the moment and won't for the foreseeable future.
So if the Russian assets get scooped up by the Russian state and in the unlikely event compensation is paid out to western holders (which seems a pipedream imo) you wouldn't be able to cash the cheque anyway if you are UK based without breaking sanctions. The likelihood is it would be incepted by your bank before it even got to you.
I'm increasingly seeing problems with businesses that are not even based in Russia where banks are making individuals and businesses jump through hoops to move money round, especially with Middle Eastern accounts because of the potential link to Russian money.
It's not because they can't transfer the ownership out of the current Plc structure. Even if they could it's unlikely that any of the major exchanges would have them and they wouldn't be able to employ the renowned investments banks, brokers and legal firms required to make such a move happen.
Under 470FZ Rasp and the metal assets in Russia will not be part of Evraz plc, it absolutely does not matter how much they cost for you!!! Russian citizens are buying Rasp in Russia on Moscow Exchange to get the divs after it's stripped from Evraz plc.
Andrey; RASP is trading and the value is only for RASP already 2$ in evraz value … RASP is a public company
So not sure what you are talking about … you realise that nearly all Steel Companies in Russia are back close to the SP before the war ?
No no - i see your points, you think that somehow a fairytale comes and it all goes back to 2021 and if you count the assets as if nothing had happened it costs a lot. That's 100% true, but 470FZ and the war happened and sanctions, so it's just misleading to count that way.
Deals were done till upto 2$ a share and most progressed last year.
well now we talking real market values and prices thank you. "up to $2" is not that far from good price if not for the 470FZ. Last year people sold at 50 cents and in large quantities, but I was buying other stuff unfortunately.
I know but you not consider my points.
So i feel extremely comfortable. Again my view here is thag you have an own agenda and try to get so many shares as possible for a steal price …
Alone RASP has a value of 2$ in evraz share value! And you want to pay 50% of that and get Evraz Russia for free on top!
I understand what you do. But dont think many believes you
Deals were done till upto 2$ a share and most progressed last year.
If you read the law, Evraz has no choice or say of whether to go ESO or not, it's the Gov decision and the terms are really strict
All right - what was the price you paid for the OTC deals? $5? $3? maybe less than $1?)) I don't know Roman personally - it's just a huge beautiful park for all.
btw for Poly it's not over yet - they will have to sell the Russian assets and you will not like the price i think
Yes; Evraz will follow the correct way and apply against the decision in court and yes i assume a compensation package will be calculated for those can receive any benefit.
But going back to my original point. Evraz is highly complex politically connected up between Russia, UK, US and Canada.
Majority of the bonds are owned by Russian / just little will be allocated to be paid by an NA Sale.
I personal think it would be way cleaner to sell NA, pay off the non russian bond holder and buyback the non russian free float before go ESO. Would be a clean cut
Thats wrong - i was engaged in 5 OTC exchanges personal. You are not the only buying! I think some wanted to sell because of financial challenges, most buyer see the longterm value of Evraz.
Nice to see that you know Roman personal, had never the chance to meet him but think he is a person with a huge heart. Gave already more than 5B$ to charity and hope he can get the Chelsea money back / not ok to force anyone.
Thats one of my key points. RA is well known and not as thieve but as smart and legit business man. Cant see him be part of stealing from ordinary people. I do understand when the offer in the end is not at 100% value but still way north of 1$.
I know the law really well. Also not mix 300-400B$ worth of state assets with oligarchs asset or our situation. Different cases.
For the gov its collective punishment 100% = foreigner's took their 300B = they took foreigner's assets
If you ask Evraz , you know what there strategy is around Eso.
Evraz will have to follow the law, they have NO choice if you read it. In reality FIVE Etalon Evraz all are waiting for the law to end this nonsense of "plc-ing" and get their business back.
Maybe you should ask, so we can safe time here and are at the same level of understanding.
have you asked? I think they can not tell the truth since the west still has their billions
I can sell you a lot of shares at 5$ now, you buying?) The thing is - there is only me buying, no one else. And if i were not 470FZ eligible and not in the same boat citizenly as the bosses i would have sold it immediately at $1. There is a huge probability that you are leading people to zero with their investments, not me. If you just count the numbers realistically assuming that the Russian business and its money is lost, you would sell at $1. But anyways, I liked your sane tone. I like Roman A also really much - we spend a lot of time with my kids in the Meshersky Park he helped to renovate near his home in Moscow.
I know the law really well. Also not mix 300-400B$ worth of state assets with oligarchs asset or our situation. Different cases.
If you ask Evraz , you know what there strategy is around Eso.
Maybe you should ask, so we can safe time here and are at the same level of understanding.
Andrey,
POG is a total different topic. POG could not serve the loans due to sanctions and was sold off. A business with way too much debt. You compare banana and apple.
Look Into Poly gor example / that went well.
Look into Yandex , even at 50% a good offer.
50% of Evraz now with 2 years all profits maintained as not divi paid is even with 50% rabat 5$ worth.
Andrey you deramping here driven by your own interest. Fact is that non russian shareholders even at a worsecase will have enorm value. For sure the case you explain with ESO, russian holders gain more value. Thats ok if this is the route to go.
Also one point you never mentioned. The ESO law has 3 important points:
1. Identifiable Beneficiaries may receive direct divi (those are not Russian in this case) - need court approval
2. Divi which cant be paid out will be accrued (not parked on any C accounts) and paid at later stage
3. The ownership of the Russian assets are only deactivated not lost. Its like a mirror concept the ESO setup.
Best point is that Evraz is a Uk registered company and by law the ownership is structured like this. I understand that every country can dictate there own law and rules. Lets not forget that Evraz NA is still part of PLC and 80% of bonds are russian owned.
In principal its more a political negotiation and fair value concept will need alignment between the Russian gov and UK (FCA) . So far have not seen that Russia was unfair around economic outcomes! Personal have many Russian friends too.
As well RA is a legit billionaire and Entrepreneur. Wrongly sanctioned 5-7B USD in Uk of his fortune. Think further all those points are in the mix.
There will be a fair solution coming for all of us. Also RA to get his Assets back! We like him here in UK - to me a legend.
Putin in June 2023 said that the gov should make a law to strip away foreign company's assets. The law is called 04.08.2023 470-FZ you can read it yourself. Evraz plc - a UK based entity - will loose all it's Russian assets under this law. Russian citizens like the bosses will get those assets thru forced stripping. The compensation to Evraz plc for it will be paid to a frozen C account in Russia in rubles until the west unfreezes the $300B Russian reserves.
why are you thinking that the bosses will give any money to the western creditors after they lost that much money arrested personally in the west? it's billions of dollars their personal. i think that evraz russia will give zero money to save the evraz international plc to repay the debts. so the evraz plc debt is only balanced by the na assets. if you heard about the petropavlovsk plc ( https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/london/pog/stock-price ) - it has sold its russian assets for very little, repaid some debt and went bankrupt. market cap was 3 bln usd and went to zero in 1 year. same thing here is in my view very realistic. they are really ****ed off for losing money. you know that they are already not paying eurobond payments, right?
Andreys narrative is to suit I’m his needs. Yes the situation isn’t ideal but both businesses are still thriving considering.
Care to explain How Rasp is no longer relevant to EVR?
Andrey,
Thats ok. Your view, but again i see it differently.
1. Close to 80% of bonds are russian owned. Only 300-400M USD are with west holders.
2. A business has its time to develop. The last 2 years performance count and a forwards projection. I think you are aware that Pr. Biden just signed a 16B investment in speed train tracks … guess who deliver them.
3. Clearly you dont know evraz that well. They are nearly NETDEBT neutral. Rasp paid of all there debt and has 600M$ cash ready for divi. NA should be around 350-400 debt by now (only). Most debt are the bonds which owned close to 80% by russian.
Overall it looks really well for western holder - way above 1$ value! way above.
Evraz, first of all nice to speak to a calm and savvy sane person!
You value NA assets at 2022 year Ebitda, but in reality they are not that good - there were a lot of years when they were terrible in performance and only lived off the Russian part of the business.
Ebitda NA assets 2019 38 mln usd, 2020 MINUS 28 mln dollars, 2021 321 mln USD, 2022 I have seen 296 mln for 1st half, but ok 620 mln
average ebitda 238 mln, multiple 5, value 1200 mln
Evraz has 3 bln debt - please see their own presentation!
I think that people who would stay in Evraz plc after stripping of Russian assets will get lower than my $1 after debt, maybe even zero + a chance to get the compensation from the Russian side in 2040 so my price is justified for the risk
Andrey,
I really appreciate that you would like to buy Evraz shares for a steal price of 1$.
Let me bring a bit light into your thoughts …
Evraz PLC has in addition to Evraz in Russia, Kaz and Czech R. / RASP in Russia an Asset in North America which made a whopping 620M$ Ebitda in 2022.
Even there will be a forced move to Russia the compensation paid and fact that Evraz NA is a mult billion asset and that way over 50% of bonds are owned by russian holders, you should really quick conclude that whatever outcome it will be, non russian shareholders will stay with a value way north of 1$ what you offer to people.
So just make sure next time that you reflect the situation 360degree and not scare people with a story where the most important facts are missing!
GLA
Raspadskaya and the metal business in Russia have nothing to do with Evraz plc anymore, Rasp shares are growing because it will be stripped from Evraz plc before 31/12/2023 and pay divs to Russian holders directly. Evraz plc may only file for a compensation for Rasp and the metal business, which will be frozen on the C ruble account until Russian $300 bln reserves are freed, which seems unlikely given the current state of relations between Russia and the West. But "diamond hands", let's hope, etc))) When they formally announce the stripping of the assets it will be too late to sell your lots because a lot of big guys will be running out and kill the price to zero. Btw if you know someone with a lot of Evraz shares (100 000+) and want to get a commission for the sale let me know in direct messages.
How can EVR shup down UK list and move its to US list exchange? Is this possible in this time or not?