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Aandi - thanks very much for the links to EQT info, very useful.
I see you as somewhere between an EQT cheerleader and head librarian.
Interesting last week or so:
- all my smelly old fossil fuel stocks and even BATs are up significantly
- all my green start ups down
-my strategy at present is to use fossil dividends to purchase green AIM stocks so working well at present.
Think EQT / VLS / GETECH etc are all losing out at present as investors switch from growth stocks into more defensive ones. So, patience needed here methinks, it's going to take excellent news, JVs, cash inflows or takeover speculation to bump the price up over next few months - lots of opportunities for top ups whilst we're being patient.
2015 to 2021 financials and other info from stockpedia. I like the Graphs near the end..
https://drive.google.com/file/d/102EdU7eqBz071equY0b7HoFWPVixKIVi/view?usp=drivesdk
Arden note from December with 4.9p prediction and some nice data on gross revenues for different parts of the business. 75% gross margin for future licensing revenue looks very promising.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/13jZSqFB8jAK41KL2LBm-FLy0-fF4SyD6/view?usp=drivesdk
2020 company slides presentation
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_p6eGBo9RwGDEI_j9Flud8fbvIglB0VS/view?usp=drivesdk
2021 interm slides
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_ii_BDgWWOVSAjsbAwErj6A4bp6H1YA2/view?usp=drivesdk
Eqtec vs PHE comparison
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1K0FzkWLbLqTcZO1z416zKHqGq4wlLgwv/view?usp=drivesdk
Aim investor case for buying eqtec from August 2021
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hKL7dfEh6TbW-SCepFPG4IS1Mo1QCY9E/view?usp=drivesdk
Collection of links, research, RNS, full info known to the market on all 17 projects currently under development. Please read the disclaimer first, credit to RollonRetirement
https://my.hidrive.com/share/4-d-n-4npd#$
Thanks for posting this again. I missed it the first time around. It really gives an insight into how much is going on and the dramatic growth in revenues which are expected in the current year.
My concern about the danger of overtrading was alluded to by the CFO towards the end of the video, when he said the balance sheet was in good shape and that EQT would leverage the borrowing capabilities of its JV partners in the projects in which it invests.
https://youtu.be/S-09kQD0ej4
Here is that "meet the eqtec Directors" 2021 round up video again from december.
It is the first result in YouTube against eqtec so I am sure most will have seen it already.
Andy, yes March, you're correct. But we haven't previously had one in early/mid Jan like other periods updates, we usually have to wait longer (March)
Hi trytry, regarding the pipeline, we were told 3 things in the trading update in march 2021, the number of new projects in the pipeline, an update on the monetary value of the opertunity pipeline, and the value of full commercial offers sent out. Here is the snippet from that update:
"Since the announcement of the Group's interim results in September 2020, the number of opportunities has grown from 41 to 75, an increase of 83% over six months. Additionally, between July 2020 and February 2021, the Company added non-contracted tender opportunities worth a total potential of €316 million for a total potential pipeline value of €657 million. Over the same period the Company sent full commercial offers worth a total of €246 million."
Radio silence on the pipeline ever since..
We also learned about the court case being thrown out and new partnership with MetalNRG so as said, maybe they only release quarterly updates when there are big ticket news items worth reporting.
The full year results 19th april included some good information from Q1, then we got a Q2 update 19th July, then Interm results 28th September could be classes as a q3 update.
A Q4 update with blockbuster news on the 19th January would be nice!
aandi
I have only been investing here since the Spring but in that time I have come to appreciate just how well Eqtec keep their shareholders informed compared to many other listed companies.
So, my guess is that when they have news that is relevant we will get it, sooner rather than later. Although that might just be a few snippets between now and April.
Its also important to note that the news flow is generally governed by how long it takes customers to respond, planning, financing etc etc. and with Covid still hanging around it must be very frustrating closing deals at the moment.
The December update was certainly very welcome because although it contained some negative news, it was very necessary to put the record straight.
A Q4 update is unlikely I think. They're not required to, and we didn't get one in early '21. I suspect we'll get a full trading update for the 6 months at EoY results in April. As you say, a pipeline update would be nice, but perhaps only reporting on those they expect to get some cash from within the next 12 months, or those very advanced? It might not be worth dwelling on others which they've only had the first phone call on.
Hi chilting, interesting times ahead indeed. Both eqtec and Ceres power have mature management in place I feel, although eqtec have so far resisted, or perhaps are still too early in their journey to attract large partners interested in taking large equity stakes. At Ceres power, many of the big deals happened pre covid, whether it is relevant or not.
On a different subject, any thoughts on if we will get a Q4 trading update anytime soon? There Wass aa trading update in December but it was more to address the revenue targets. Hopefully there is more news worthy of a Q4 update we can look forward to shortly..
Can we expect to be told estimated 2021 revenue before the end of year results?
What is the status with Kibo and their prophesied Billingham investment?
Is the Billingham land purchase agreement deadline in february jeprodised in some way or will this still go ahead?
What's happening in France?
Has the pipeline grown significantly in the last 12 months with additional growth attributable to new partners Woodgroup and Anaergia?
Any further news on the Carbon Sole/Irish plants?
What number of projects are in development now? Last count was 17...
Back in September when there was the investor presentation Q&A session, the Company spoke about increasing the frequency of communications with investors in the future. There was a high quality proactive investors video back in December but no further presentations or Q&A sessions. Perhaps we will need to wait until EOY results in april now, in which case I would like to see a Q4 update soon to keep investors informed and happy, please! (oh and a pipeline update would bbe great too)
Thanks :)
aandi
We certainly have interesting times ahead and if Eqtec can start to emulate Ceres then that will be quite some achievement.
I have invested in Ceres since pre share consolidation days when the SP was below 15p.
The key to their development and the growth in the SP has been the partnerships with Bosch and Weichai, maybe we will see something similar with Eqtec, with Wood taking a stake to fund rapid expansion.
The new factory being built by Weichai isn't due to come online until 2024, or at least reach full capacity by then. The latest broker notes don't show 'explosive' revenues in 2022 or 2023 so I suspect a slow ramp up of production is anticipated.
Eqtec were forecasting a maiden profit in 2021 but missed it by around €2.5m. All expenses are already accounted for from sales/ongoing revenues. Investment capital for the market development centres are already covered with current cash flows.
Yes the company could chose to rapidly expand and maybe take a larger percentage of equity in more projects, but if they did that it would only be done from a position of strength (i.e a higher share price).
The last two equity raises cleared debts, injected funds in key projects to ensure their success (some of them being legacy arangements set up under previous management), we now have substantial equity in some large projects (Billingham and Deeside) which can be released at a gross margin of 52% for development fees, and a gross margin of 24% for technology sales.
Here is the relevant research note which highlights this..
https://drive.google.com/file/d/18HqPWX5vMESBmfFyQoJVQnlgvjzektWr/view?usp=drivesdk
I repeat, all overheads are covered by the growing revenue and eqtec have cash in the bank.
Good luck
The optimist may also say we're roughly level on the 6 month chart now after a pretty serious retrace, so lining pretty squarely up for another rerate. Multibags incoming.
Ok aandi
Look at it this way.
Eqtec will have to fund their expansion and yes, if it turns out as forecast it is rapid growth and the SP will undoubtable respond as revenue grows over the coming years.
At the moment Ceres revenue is constrained because revenue is only coming from one small factory.
If things go to plan then Weichai Power - a Chinese state owned company - will fund large scale production and Ceres will receive licencing revenue.
So, with Ceres its potential that fuels the SP, built on years of R&D - Eqtec will have to rely much more on hard graft with numerous equity raises along the way to get their tech adopted.
The pessimist would say the share price is a dissapointment. The optimist would say the low share price is an opportunity to get in low!
Yaaaaawn....... Let me just check to see if the share price agrees with you. Eerrm..... Nope.
Added two extra years for trailing 12 months by mistake, now corrected.
Ceres power 2017 - 2023 past revenue and forecast future revenue:
£6.3m, 15.3m, 18.9m, 31.7m, 31.9m, 35.5m, 39.9m
Eqtec
£20k, 2.18m, 1.69m, 2.23m, 10m, 58.7, 96m
Page 9 compares all the peers as they are considered to be "Alternative power companies on the Aim"
https://www.alignresearch.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Eqtec_Align_Update_July_2021.pdf
Chilting, you state that eqtec do not have the potential for "explosive growth"
Cwr 2017 - 2023 past revenue and forecast future revenue:
£6.3m, 15.3m, 18.9m, 31.7m, 29.9m, 31.9m, 35.5m, 39.9m
Eqtec
£20k, 2.18m, 1.69m, 2.23m, 1.95m, 10m, 58.7, 96m
Who has the more explosive revenue increase between 2020 & 2023?
I don't make any comparison between EQT and AFC as to me they are in completely different markets.
If eqtec miss the broker note revenue forecast by the same margin in 2022 and 2023, end of year 2023 could still be €60m with a gross margin of around 35%... That's comparable with CWR making £32m @ 70% gross margin this year.
So based on the projected rate of growth, best case eqtec 40 bags, or worst case we 10 bag. What we also have not accounted for yet is how quickly the pipeline order book is filling up. There is potential for further upside based on a huge order book much larger than any of the other green energy companies such as ITM, PHE, CWR, AFC.
The other players are all relying to some extent on the hydrogen market. Eqtec have power, heat, biochar, hydrogen, methane, biofuels, waste disposal as sources of revenues.
Which company is the most flexible and which has the fastest growing order book? Eqtec wins every time.
I don't expect we will see a lot more of revenue forecasts. They'd do better to keep them to theirselves.
And, I would continue to take the revenue forecasts with a pinch of salt. I think Eqt will have done well if c. €10m is the actual for 2021. The forecast €15m was very ambitious but given it wasn't met, doesn't allow the most to be made of the actual.
aandi
I don't think that you can compare EQT with CWR.
Ceres potential is based on what will be a licencing model for the large scale production of fuel cells in much the same way as ARM Holdings did with computer chips.
With EQT the growth will have to be far more organic and slower - EQT certainly haven't got the potential for explosive growth like Ceres.
The long term potential here is excellent, but I think it will be some time before the SP reflects that potential.
Seconded. Thanks for sharing the awesome info, aandi.
aandi , keep up the good work. ATB