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Of course I could have been boring wait for all others and just put 0,01 higher then highest.
Now Romaron have second highest at 72.
So I just need above 78,5 average to win:-)
It’s doable!
Pelle,
Thank you for posting your Model.
I see you have come up with some really big numbers. Getting even bigger.
What were you thinking about when you were formulating your figures ?
Certainly not oil prices, Breast Sizes maybe !
Hi Whiteace,
Good to hear from you.
I think I've basically won a bottle of bollinger from the kind romaron.
However I need to do the maths. Living in Suffolk I need to add up the cost of all the train fares in going to collect the prize. Overnight accommodation won't be a problem, I'm sure he'll put me up !
No Jan,
My model says 68 in March.
To not break down every months I give you
Q1 62
Q2 80
Q3 97
Q4 100
Maybe it’s high but maybe closer then others
HI Jan!
Your back of the fag packet calculations are on form this afternoon !
Therapist,
I see you have just slipped under romaron with your 71.196574p recurring figure. A clever move if I may say so. I feel the others are holding back to place sneaky bets between our numbers. However I doubt they will get between you and romaron as there is only 0.81 between you.
I would actually like to hear what price Gkb47 would come up with for POO average for 2021. Although I don't think he should be allowed to be included in the bollinger prize. I will put up the prize for Gkb47. A glass of Gin and Bitter lemon.
Don't you guys realise that an average is just that.
Pelle to get an average of $85 for 2021 you will need POO to be $100 from April. With Jan and Feb numbers already in you get an average of $60. Indeed someone posted this a day or so ago. So already to get your $85 average for 2021 you need $90 from 1st March. Your to high ! We may hit $85, but to average it for the year is a very big ask !
Remember if you are driving and want to average 70 kph. If you stop at the lights for 3 minutes then to keep your average, you then need to drive at 140 kph for 6 minutes to make up for lost time.
No, I will win the bollinger. However will gladly share a glass with you !
Therapist, let’s see if Romaron accept yours
Hi Romaron,
The answer will of course be $71.19. I've worked it out on a spreadsheet so little chance of being wrong.
GLAXXX
Hello Romaron,
Statistic is not so useful for an event that never happened before.
US production going down and demand will go up a lot with start in Q2.
These are extreme movements and I doubt OPEC will or can keep an lid on oil prices.
So I stick to my 85!
Remember oil average over 100 a couple of years before. So 85 is not that extreme
Ah- you run the risk of being discarded. Is that your final answer? I didn't invite gkb because an estimate of c. $30 would have had a similar result at the other end. I expect a statistician to say that between me and Juan we've buggered it up already.
Hello Romaron,
Nice competition, I will try hold Swedish flag high:-)
First I come up to 77 but I think this can go extreme and I want to have the highest estimate in competition.
So my final answer is 85!
Romaron,
A bottle of bollinger, very kind.
My average for Brent 2021 is $67.
Sorry - when I said 1 and 7 I should have said lowest and highest.
What is the point of them? This today's 3 minute read from Reuters who I usually have a lot of respect for:
https://www.reuters.com/article/oil-prices-poll-int/oil-set-for-steady-gains-as-economies-shake-off-pandemic-blues-reuters-poll-idUSKBN2AQ1IG
Some pretty graphs and the consensus that the oil forecast for 2021 is $59.07 for Brent. I've checked their calcs and we have averaged $58.80 so far this year. So after careful thought the 55 participants average guess is $59.07 for all of 2021.
In that case Juan you might as well go back to bed. Nothing likely to change until 2022.
I have set Libor rates in the past (Italian Lira) and from memory it was 7 banks provided them. They knocked off numbers 1 and 7 and took an average of the other 5 (BCI was always a bit high because Foreign Trade Moscow was a big customer).
So the unusually high criteria for the chosen 7 is that they have shown that a few brain cells still function and they aren't members of QAnon.
I invite these 6 to give their estimate for Brent 2021. I'm the 7th (my ball) and will kick off with $72
Pelle
Hitman
E121
L7
Juan
Therapist
******** I think these exercises are a little puerile but then so is the Reuters poll. It is only a bit of fun but there will be a bottle of Bollinger for the winner in 10 months time.