Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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A sloth would have got more done in the time GC has been in charge . 🤣
I bet if you went round GCs house and he said “ do you want a sandwich ? “ I reckon he’d be gone in the kitchen for 6 hours . . ( that’s if he gets eisa to build one )
When
Is this godforsaken potash going to be produced .,?
How does GC become an expert in the industry if all the jobs take so long . ??
Add his time here onto his Sirius days where nothing got achieved there and it’s probably 8 yrs since he done anything worthwhile or am
I missing something . ? ( I have no
Idea what achievements GC has ever done if someone wants to fill me in )
AJ27
Never in the field of company endeavour have so many companies failed to meet forecast capital payback time frames.
And I do not expect EML to buck this trend. Then, as I alluded to, after debt paid of, there is capital reqiured for business expansion, MnA, new plant, machinery, etc, etc, The list goes on and on. Something else where companies prefer to use surplus cash is Share Buyback programmes. It benefits SH's in reducing no of shares in issue, so is an obvious benefit when divis are eventually paid, and equally as important, taxation benefits. 20 years may have been conservative, but definitely no divis within 10 years. Hope we are both around at that time to continue the debate.
Even using the old numbers the project had a 2.6 year capital payback so 20 years until dividends is beyond conservative.
Wheresallthemoney.
Divis will only be paid to SH's when the mine is up and running, profitable and has cleared majority of debt, and has all the necessary assets to mine for 20,30 years. t may also want to venture into the acquisitions market. The timescale for divis is therefore at least 15/20 years away. If, as I suggested, the sp attains a MC in line with the profitability statements issued by the Company, then it will be around the ÂŁ2.30ps mark. I would expect a yearly divi of 15p ps. Anyone buying in now, and holding for 15/20 years would then have to take into account the actual values of 2p and ÂŁ2.30 after inflation and taxation. IOW, it is not as good as the figures suggest at first glance.
Good post Testpack, the only thing I would say is that surely in the worst case scenario insolvency can easily be avoided by just cutting costs, preserving cash by mothballing the project if they really had too rather than the downside risk you state. The company after all has no debt and could easily do a mini raise to keep the lights on if they really had too. They do after all hold the licences, the mining permit and the new process IP, which would be worth something. Surely it makes sense for all parties to get this project rolling now anyway.
Hi testpack, thanks for your input. Given those figures, what would you expect the half yearly divi's to be around?
I believe there are only 2 'near term' outcomes, first, no EISA award and the company files for bankruptcy because of lack of cash. No reason for OCP or any other party to act as White Knight, since a 'Firesale' will be a more cost effective solution.
second option is award of EISA, and an immediate rerate of sp to ?. I have posted a year or so ago, when sp was a higher, that EISA would give a 15p sp , based on the '2 year run up' to production and a probableÂŁ2.30 sp based on projected revenues. Since nothing will have changed, except for the positive elements provided by KMA and some 'better' more expensive saleable products, then 15 p is still a 'target' sp, albeit more likely attainable after a month or so after EISA award. I reason this since there will have to be the inevitable fund raise following award of EISA, and this will diminish the fervour to buy immediately after award. I 'guess' that 7p is a more realistic target immediately following award.
at 2p, with '2 month target' of 15p following award, there is a 13p upside and only a 2p downside. It is irrelevant if you buying at 2p now or have bought higher). My thought is that it is more 'likely than not' to be awarded following return of decision to local and the new KMA process. I therefore believe it is better than a 50:50 chance of approval, and a 750% gain. A no brainer. Other investors will have a different probability of EISA approval, and can do their own maths. A decision not to 'buy' can only be made if their probability is 7.5 /1 against award.
Naturally, by my reasoning I should be 'going all in'. I already have 'bought back in', and will 'invest' a further ÂŁ1k, and my final 'investment' will be what I am prepared to lose, which should be the 'mantra' for all investment decisions; Only invest what you can afford, and are prepared to lose.
The KMP process will not work for all potash miners as the minerals that make up the potash differ between mines.
The potash mix in Khemisset is, carnallitic and rinneitic this process won't work for other mineral deposits.
One down side of the Khemisset mine are the impurities that meant that the processing needed an extra stage pre KMP to remove magnesium (Mg) and iron (Fe).
Now with KMP those impurities have been reprocessed to produce new fertilizers.
If you follow most AIM miners, the one word you hear most often from the BOD is 'soon'
but building mines in Africa is a slow process & often the BOD are more or less as much in the dark as investors as to what is holding the project up.
Currently we know the decision on the permit is back with the local CRIU, if we follow their flowsheet Emmerson should hear a decision within 90 days.
Hopefully the paperwork including the KMP is back in, however they may be waiting for the revised DFS, which is being redrawn, as the whole project has grown & changed completely.
But is the KMP really such a game changer? Has it been independently verified as such outside of EML? Am I right to be suspicious that this revolutionary, game-changing process has been developed by a tiddler-sized company, a long way from being in business, yet this process has been missed by all the other major potash mining companies? It’s good to be optimistic but reality is what dictates the share price and the market makers are clearly not convinced.
Communication is truly awful from this company, it is sporadic, vague, lacks detail and more than often raises more questions than they answer. There doesn't appear to be any urgency to expedite things or push for answers and dates from the government decision makers. I accept the KMP was a great piece of work and potentially a game changer but at this rate there is going to be no game to play. Why can't EML just make it clear and unambiguous what is happening, it's not too much to ask.
Can't help thinking we're being played. I've always thought that there are dark forces at work holding EML back from getting all the approvals required to progress. Something doesn't smell right to me.
Agreed, Trev.
Only uncertainty is whether Graham’s knows the timing or what’s required.
We have been played when you read back, so is the Pied Piper Graham, the approval authorities or both - Graham hired a PR specialising in crisis management and the RNS are too vague to use, as you say, so there is spin from Graham, at a minimum!
Yes i feel the same trev.
Bewildered.
still hanging on tho.
wont sell/
chisler
On the basis of the last 2 years the quarterly update, should come within the next 2 weeks. Re-reading the quarterly update from this time last year and 2 years ago, does make very sombre reading as we still still await the ESIA.
The update needs to be very detailed and clear, and not vague. It needs to tell us shareholders what the timeline is now for a decision by regional. The company was stating a year ago that their efforts to finalise the remaining outstanding items with the relevant authorities in Morocco was being rewarded with 'constructive meetings and encouragement from the various agencies involved'. They were then confident that national would award the ESIA.
Surely now with the extra revisions/improvements and the referral back to regional they can now fully provide regional with what they need to finally award the ESIA.
What an award of the ESIA would do to the share price is anybody's guess. For now the market is much less confident of the award coming soon than it was in early 2022. What I am trying to work out now is should all long term shareholders be more confident now that this is finally coming, as GC must now have an extremely clear idea of what they need to revise to finally get this over the line?
I have believed RNS's from GC over the years, only to see things not come to fruition, I think the 9th January 2023 RNS where he stated ' I am confident we will be able to provide some substantive updates over the course of Q1, and that 2023 will be a transformative year for Emmerson' really does spring to mind as I genuinely believed then that the ESIA would drop before end of March 23.
Now a year on, I really don't know what to make of it all. I guess the market doesn't either, hence the drift here.
I took the decision to stay invested a while ago but like many long term holders my average is over double the price today, just have to hope that GC for all his endeavours can finally at last get the ESIA awarded.
Such a hurdle overcome it would be, really hope it comes soon.
Nope. Just the same weary non-news and an awful lot of opportunity lost.
You haven’t missed any news, it’s the slow painful decline that comes after each false dawn. The only news to lift this from the doldrums is the approval of the ESIA and if and when that lands I suspect it will come with a whole load of conditions. 3 years on from what should be a ninety day process. God I hope our patience is rewarded after all this time.
Have I missed some bad news, or is this the pre end of Tax year / isa sell off?
graham clarke is a clown. end of. if we as shareholders, with all his bull**** and made up timelines can’t take him seriously, what makes anyone think that those in government view him any differently? it’s staggering he’s still in post.
Thanks for this Beyond the sea, whilst not strictly confirmatory in my view it does show the direction of travel in relation to the approval and the fact that it has in effect been signed off at National Level, which must make it more tricky for the local council to throw out. Emmerson need to get on ASAP and get their revised application in demonstrating significant reduced water usage. Some proper clear unambiguous comment from EML is required setting out its revised time scales etc.
I fully agree with your sentiment. Hayden should have remained in post until all the permits were approved and the finances signed off. GC is the right man for the build and operational aspects but not CEO material pre build. Nothing against the guy but the negotiating and operational aspects require 2 very different skill sets. Let’s just now hope that the KMP process is the game changer that gets the ESIA approval over the line.
While Sunday browsing (which invariably sends me to investments & Emmerson), I came across this bit of news posted on a Khemisset forum.
The post is dated March 11th (the same day as the RNS on ESIA referral back to the CRUI.
Abdullah Bouano, the head of the Justice and Development Parliamentary Group in the House of Representatives, asked the government why it was late in granting environmental approval to the “Potash” project, which was licensed by the British company Emmerson PLC” in the Khemisset region.
In a written question addressed to Leila Benali, the Minister of Energy Transition, speeding up the environmental licensing of this 19-year project.
This project is expected to invest a total amount of about 2.5 billion dollars during this period, and it is expected to create about 2,000 job opportunities in Morocco.
According to Buano, the company “waited to receive environmental approval during the second half of last year 2023 but the relevant ministerial committee has not recovered for that purpose.”
The translation isn't 100% but it looks as though at least one minister is interested in getting the mine up & running.
Yet another quarterly update is due in the next few weeks. The ambiguous language used in the RNS makes it impossible to know if the announcement does genuinely make the awarding of the EISA closer or not. I sincerely hope so but the RNS is vague on detail. I don’t recall either GC or the finance director informing shareholders at any point, certainly not in their interviews in February where they said they were confident the ESIA would soon be awarded that national upholding the referral back to regional was even a possibility. s this has now happened and they are pleased I just really hope as a long term share holder that this really is a positive and the ESIA does soon follow.
Lots of helpful and informing posts recently, Beyondthesea. Thanks for taking the time to share.
Junior workers sometimes go silent when they’re overwhelmed. By CEO, it should be possible to handle pressure and communicate about it.
I think Graham’s out of his depth and that it was an ill judged and overly technical hire by Hayden; doesn’t mean I think badly of Graham but I’m not seeing the gravitas (and it’s only a personal opinion).