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I like CIR. I don't remember now why I didn't take the plunge and actually it hasn't done too badly - at least compared to RENX and EKF.
Anyway, I wouldn't be surprised if biotech & healthcare turns out a good place for your money over what may become a tricky next few years, so I'd be hanging in there Silverblade.
I will top trump you unhooked - I’m in ekf, Renx and cir - all following Mr Mills. And mmx which he was into as well - just about ok on the last - current disasters on the rest!! SB
10 years ago the share price was around 29p, today it's 34.5p, so hardly an acceptable return over a decade.
And I thought this was a high quality company with some unique IP and well-regarded investments.
Unfortunately, I'm also in RENX.
Feels like I've swallowed hubris from the Christopher Mills stable.
And the dividend doesn't even go ex until near the end of the year.
£200m in lost shareholder value in 3 months - more than 50%. The current price even makes the buy back look like an ill timed judgement call which accelerated the price decline. SB
Plus we ended up with some shares in Trellus which has done equally bad!
Despite broker views and the much heralded positioning of the business for growth - we are now price wise back to where we were 2 years ago pre pandemic hits. For a business with decent cash in bank, strong EBITDA and PBT, cash generating, some decent investments in other companies and in its own business lines and paying a 3% yield - it doesn't half feel like there is real market downer on the business. The bonuses paid out to senior and now departed managers last year based on creating shareholder value feels a bit raw. SB
As far as I can see the three brokers who cover EKF have all updated their forecasts and views since the FY21 results update and all are rating the stock as a Buy, with the following price targets: Panmure Gordon 60p, Investec 94p and Singer Capital Markets 62p
DYOR but my humble view is that EKF have adeptly navigated the pandemic and positioned themselves as a much stronger, sustainable growth business and once the covid-blip is out of the way we should have greater visibility on the breadth of the growth opportunities ahead!
I have become slightly overweight on EKF, but I am optimistic that they will deliver on their plan. I am still uncertain on the buy-back policy. More so after listening to podcast by Chris Bloomstran of Berkshire Hathaway. He says that buy back is now a trend with companies trying to boost their share price. His view that this would be better invested and the share price may mask underlying growth issues within the company. It is clear that advisors are pushing this to businesses right now, not least for the arrangement fees.
I think EKF have made their investment for future growth, so not such a worry here.
Next milestone is AGM in May.
So the company has now completed their buyback program and we can return to usual liquidity levels. The shares are arguably now discounting revenues and earnings to just above 2019 levels and this is well overdone (IMHO). The market seems to be saying covid-related Contract Revenues are going to zero which is utter nonsense as they're still ongoing (albeit declining), and the company are shifting their Contract Revenue manufacturing resources to higher margin (non-covid) opportunities, what's not to like? I am buying shares below 40p for sure, frankly happy to buy up to the 50p level and add to the long-term portfolio.
Top up for me earlier today and might have another go next week.
.... 200k to go and looks like 150k away already. Few days to settle then slow rise ....
There are most certainly institutional shareholders who sit below the 3% radar - so our total II holding is likely somewhere in the c.60-65% range. I think the downer on the business which resulted both from the referenced covid business decline and the price at which the buyback was established is way OTT. The building blocks in place to grow the business are there - in the meantime the company will still continue to benefit from albeit reduced covid revenue and has shown to be using that benefit wisely in its investments. The current price looks very attractive imo. SB
This is list of major shareholders. After the buy back this would equate to something like 55% of total shares in issue.
However it could be more if these shareholders are buying during the buy-back period.
Harwood Capital 130,875,000 28.21%
Canaccord Genuity Wealth Mgt 30,875,780 6.66%
Liontrust Asset Management 29,682,369 6.40%
Schroder Investment Mgt 20,100,000 4.42%
Octopus Investments 19,278,000 4.16%
Stock Invest 17,830,000 3.84%
Could be today, but certainly by end of the week.
Today the last buy back day?
Been following the trades - yesterday 2 x 1M bought, but only 1M was for the buy back. 2 x 1M extra from Friday.
I think someone is building a stake here. There was a 1M buy this morning already at circa 42p. The stock is drying up IMO, will have to tick up to complete the buy back.
Like buy back could be finished sooner rather than later. Still adding as i think due tick up after all shares bought. GL
Dartron,
Manufacturing revenue (covid related) was still at 2021 rate for Q1, then it tails off. So if you strip out all manufacturing revenue that gives you a very conservative forecast. Margins on this are also low compared to other business.
The singer target is also quite conservative and so from current price there is upside potential.
I and other current shareholders are a bit miffed about the way the buy-back was done, which largely signalled a 45 p valuation.
I saw enough in the presentation the other week to accumulate at this price and expect a tick up leading to the AGM in May. At the AGM they are requesting approval to buy-back another 15% of issued share capital.
0
3M shares bought at or above ASK throughout the day on Friday from delayed trades (which have not been used in the the totals shown on this site). Another 1M was bought in 4 x 250k purchases between 10.30 and 11.30AM which printed and were not delayed.
01-Apr-22 15:04:38 44.0488 1,000,000 Unknown* 42.20 43.50 440.49k O
01-Apr-22 11:23:14 44.00 500,000 Unknown* 42.20 43.50 220.00k O
01-Apr-22 12:33:21 44.00 500,000 Unknown* 42.20 43.50 220.00k O
01-Apr-22 15:04:50 44.0488 1,090,005 Unknown* 42.20 43.50 480.13k O
Not delayed trades
2022-04-01T11:33:35.283 GBX 44 250000 110000 Off-Book AIMX P LRGS AIMX
2022-04-01T11:33:26.627 GBX 44 250000 110000 Off-Book AIMX P LRGS AIMX
2022-04-01T10:23:22.690 GBX 44 250000 110000 Off-Book AIMX P LRGS AIMX
2022-04-01T10:23:18.050 GBX 44 250000 110000 Off-Book AIMX P LRGS AIMX
I expect 1M above to be Fridays Buy back.
Meanwhile, the Algo bots are trying to present a different storey, closing on a day low of 42p for 65 shares!
2022-04-01T15:23:23.743 GBX 42.1 65 27.365 AT AIMX P ALGO
I have also been through the fundamentals of the company, but from an accounts perspective:
EV 167M,
Rev 81.8M,
Non Covid revenue roughly 56% (I stripped out all the manufacturing revenue)
Margin 48%
Ebit 26.5M
Cash 20M
Substantial 'hard assets' 16M
Ev/Ebit = 6.3 for 2021
Singer broker target 62p (from reading other site). Not sure what multiple that would give for 2022 ??
I think this is over sold currently, and am expecting some recovery. Maybe only a few pence, but would make current price the low entry point. - Thoughts?
Thanks for info, wadded in with a couple of bags of sand a few mins ago. GL
They target to complete before the AGM in May.
At the May AGM they are requesting shareholders approve a mandate for buy back of a further 15% of issued share capital.
This does not guarantee they will execute, but they have the option.
Followed a company with similar buyback and similar amount of shares. After buyback 50% increase in sp. Iam not saying that will happen but with the current situation iam happy to buy and hold. GL
This buy back should be concluded quite quickly, looking at the amount they buy each day. Maybe 2 more weeks.
They might extend it, if they feel the shares are around half price.
I bought yesterday. I think a few pence rise is more or less guaranteed - because it is over sold rather than the buy back.
This company has plenty of cash and plenty of work. That's good enough reason.