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Wow - I’ve not looked at the DKL price graph for a while - in the last 6 months down 43%!!
Given the CPO prices are at highs and cashews supposedly about to come online - That is some statement of faith on DKL the leadership
Basically market saying we have zero trusts in you or your ability to deliver!
Trust - a lifetime to achieve and a second to destroy - a long road back unfortunately - if ever
I wouldn't get too downhearted about 8p because if you look at the chart, when we got news (and photos) of the Cashew facility built and ready to go, this went back up from lows of 1.8p to 5.5p in short order.
The market has currently lost all confidence in the board, but if they can simply get the cashew facility operational and generating revenue, then the SP will respond.
I'm not sure how it's even possible to procrastinate this process for 3-4 years.
And spot on to you too DB - I have exactly the same sentiments. I average 8.5p here and I know I won't see most of that again. To be frank, I am over £20,000 down. Best not to dwell on it too much. At least I got into Rolls at 1.11, so that has more than compensated me for DKL. Swings and roundabouts I guess. Or with respect to DKL perhaps better to say a trapdoor to the murky depths where the sharks circle...
Absolutely spot on Danny!
i actually sold some shares to buy in here 10 years ago! i have to try really really hard not to think about what an error that has turned out to be - if only id left the money in the shares i sold id be 1000s better off!
DKL has been a very very costly mistake when you look at it in those terms!
and as you note Danny, only gets more painful when you consider the methods in which the board has funnelled our investment money to themselves! - shocking
The real tragedy isn’t necessarily the worry to “break even at 1.55”. - No investor is happy to just get their money back. By definition you invest to make a return.
It’s missed opportunities elsewhere as well. If you would have bought Rolls Royce less than 2 years ago you would be looking at 400% profit.
If you wouldn’t be sitting on continuous losses here for the last 10 years (while management gets paid every month) you could have taken other positions elsewhere.
I'm 50% down on my first buys but I added considerably around current price, well around 1.3p so my average is ~1.55p.
Fine for now (although need to make up for losses elsewhere!)
I'm also aware that anymore major slip ups and there is a chance of failure here, so the next 3 months or so are critical.
The problem is JK is DKL will just announce any date that is a few months down the line.
they have no actual plan or any idea at all when things will actually happen - completely clueless.
the tactic seems to be - just say any date that's a few months away - kick the can down the road and hope nobody notices.
problem is - after the 50th time of seeing it - everybody notices!
Dbentley, if HarChris bought in at circa 2p (from memory), then unfortunately it's already half way there in terms of 50% down on original investment!
The only way is up though, as they say.
For anyone expecting a miracle next month, I suggest October is a more likely timescale. That's already been telegraphed in the April RNS.
Remember, the equipment was ordered in January 2024 - a mere 3-4 years after operations were due to commence. The key date though is that, quote, "deliveries expected to start arriving in June 2024, which will be announced in due course." Note, "start arriving".
Even if that timetable is acheived the April RNS already stated that "we expect to see a material improvement in cashew production volumes and quality during Q3 2024."
In a nutshell, more waiting.
"How hard can it be to eventually iron out the cashew issues? I mean come on, they were predicting 10tkpa back in 2020 for the following year with a phase 2 ramp up to 15ktpa and then eventually 30ktpa."
indeed they have stated this - like so many claims before from production targets, new sites, roundtable credentials, dividends - and the list goes on and on and on
eventually Harchris - you just get used to it
Harchris! - is this true what i read!! - is that the first sign of frustration, doubt, the dawning realisation of the level of incompetence you have bought into here!
you will soon be one of us
your halfway there stating that you need faith! - all that remains is the final step - the final realisation that there is indeed no limit to the leadership incompetence!
Harchris - welcome to the club :)
The positives are that DKL survived last year without further funding, something that looked rather unlikely following the H1 results and scarily low cash position vs near term debt obligations.
How hard can it be to eventually iron out the cashew issues? I mean come on, they were predicting 10tkpa back in 2020 for the following year with a phase 2 ramp up to 15ktpa and then eventually 30ktpa.
I have faith that there is a limit to this management team’s incompetence and that they’ll get it right at the fifth, sixth, or is it seventh? time of asking.
Well the update has really stimulated the market hasn't it. Not a single trade today so far
I am beginning to have dreams and hallucinations at 8p per share. That would give me an overall very small gain on my overall cost. Can it ever happen? Will I live to see the day? It seems that W H Ireland are anticipating a full year of near to namepate capacity cashew nut production, Wow - that would be a miracle based on ourprevious experience of new plant implementation and production ramp up history. I had a dream.......
WH Ireland retain 8p price target.
"With the palm oil business continuing to deliver and a step change in profitability anticipated as the cashew project approaches nameplate capacity, we view Dekel on an upwards trajectory....Forecasts unchanged - With FY2025E expected to be the first full year of the cashew project operating near full capacity, we expect profits from this business next year and hence potential for a meaningful pivot towards cash generation and higher levels of profitability.
Full report available to view in the usual places.
No fireworks but positive all the same, looking at ~€18.5m revs for the first half of the year which should keep delivering profit.
Obviously everything rests on finally delivering on the cashew front so the next update is a biggie.
DKL bingo excuse card needs dusting off. I am going for unusual currents in the Suez canal due to El Nino has caused the shipping of components from Italy to be diverted to Southern Brazil and the board are fully confident of a Q4 uptick.
But operating off a very low base after the BOD have trashed not only the SP but thankfully any illusion of competence on their behalf. No cashew update in May or today AFAIK 😕 so my
A steady as she goes month for CPO in May against a really strong comparative due to the odd high season last year, but with terrific extraction rates and also a very good month for PKO in both sales and pricing.
Above all:
"The Palm Operation is continuing to be a strong performer with strong production, high historical CPO prices and excellent extraction rates. We remain well on track with market expectations for H1 2024 which we look forward to announcing next month."
The next (July) update will hopefully comment on the cashew equipment which is expected to start arriving this month, unless there's a separate cashew update.
Likely positioning more for the cashew update in a month’s time with the safety of what should be continual solid cash generation from the CPO operation.
Full year results landing this month won’t look too shabby either.
Have been a few reasonable size buys in the last day or so as production update approaches
From REA's AGM update this morning:
"Global CPO production is now growing at a lower rate than global vegetable oil consumption and, with limited availability of plantable land and increasing regulatory restrictions constraining expansion of oil palm hectarage, this situation is likely to continue. Accordingly, CPO prices may reasonably be expected to remain at remunerative levels for the foreseeable future."
I note that international CPO prices have risen nicely in the last week to $1,030:
Https://rea.co.uk/investors/CPO-price/
I assume the next monthly update will be on Monday (the 10th). Hopefully including a slow and steadily improving cashew news update too.
Danny, the target price has nothing to do with whether the share price has been consistently going down (or up, for that matter).
Having a target price of 8p for a couple of years, while the share price has been consistently going down from the equivalent of 11p to 1.1p is all you need to know about their quality of analysis!
Currently Nomad and joint broker to DKL is offloading its loss-making capital markets division to concentrate on wealth management. The 'buyer' for a token £1 was Zeus Capital which last year took over Arden . Hopefully Zeus will do a better job in promoting DKL then WHI.
Whilst it hasn’t yet translated into high local prices it’s a big plus that international prices remain so strong:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/palm-oil