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Well - we called it didn't we - we all said that the chances of DKL managing to deliver the improvements by Q2 was minimal.
there's been a number of posts this week about DKL market cap been insanely low and we should be valued higher etc - whilst on a numbers basis alone this is true - this share will go nowehere until DKL do what they say they are going to do.
Cashew in Q3 - its a lottery - they have no idea, you can't place any faith in DKL statement that they will sort this in Q3 - its simply just kicking the can down the road - they say whatever they need to say to get through today.
this is why this share will never see a material pick up - the leadership management are simply incapable of leading and managing!
Its completely ridiculous at these prices to be issuing 670k of additional shares for the poultry sum of £8k.
and who are these 'certain advisors' - ill bet as much as like that it is board members or associates.
you simply wouldn't do it - why issue out this number of shares if you believe the company is undervalued to a large extend - £8k for 670,0000 shares!!
its the usual self interest at the expense of everybody else
I do not think this is going anywhere for a while - next few months will be telling
Cashew - facility must be fully fixed Q2 as promised - chances of this happening with DKL is minimal - and even if they say it is fixed who would believe them
Year End Report - usually around June - if this is laced with lots of new equity issue, payments in equity for anything and everything, issue of shares in exchange for salaries etc
Chances are DKL will screw up both the above - Cashew delayed, loads of new shares in issue - if this happens expect this to tank yet further - regardless of Palm Oil updates, CPO prices, cashew prices etc
this share is blind hope now - ive kind of written the money off - it needs to succeed in spite of the board, if success is reliant on board competence and management - bye bye
That's the reason that with CPO prices approaching near record highs - we still see DKL fall.
its not irrational markets - its a complete lack of belief in the DKL management - we are totally reliant on DKL performing in spite of the leadership not because of it.
We are all with you Harchris
the circumstances you currently outline though have been present periodically multiple times over the past 5-10 years - in one guise or another.
the single point of failure every time is leadership and execution.
that's the problem - one win every now and then won't fix it - it needs to be sustained
You would think every leader in the business now would be moving mountains to make sure the cashew business is up and running, as they claim, by Q2 - for me id have leadership on calls every day - where are we against plan, what are the obstacles, who owns them, when will they be sorted
yet who here has any confidence this will be the case - when i hear Q2 from Lincoln my immediate thought these days are - ahh well so not this year then!
you can't buy a company with leadership at this level of capability
Yep - spot on JK, agree with every part of that
with the right level of focus and effort, with an aim for ALL shareholders to benefit been at the heart of everything DKL do - this business should be relatively straight forward - to operate and scale and be profitable.
by far the biggest drain on this share price and the biggest risk to the future of the company is the management and leadership.
my addition then to the excellent list of points JK makes would be leadership changes - but i can't see that.
I hate to say it - but my biggest worry is they let the business and share price fail to derisory levels - and then via one of their other companies - buy DKL - via issue of shares in their other company.
Blue2Guit - you reference scam - if its going to happen, along those lines is how it will take place.
Yes i get what you are saying and agree - we probably don't disagree on that much.
my frustration with DKL is ive probably seen too much of it over the years.
with DKL they've taken share allocations in exchange for related party transactions to acquire nothing more than ideas from themselves (shell companies) - and then they depleted the very modest cash reserves to turn them into actual businesses - and then they have failed on that!!
we as PIs we have been hit on all sides by this utter shambles and there comes a point when the standard self interest (which i agree happens everywhere) just becomes unacceptable (i could go further - fraudulent?)
You are a more generous person than me Harchris - i think how you acquire these shares matters alot
there's the correct, ethical and morally right way to accumulate reward (and i have no issue with that) and there is the DKL way.
i won't go into it all again as can just read previous posts
Lincoln started with 1m shares - he's now got circa 5m
given he has bought hardly any (if any) of these additional 4m shares - then a share price drop of 80% has no material financial impact on him at all!
much easier to make money allocating yourselves greater equity to mitigate performance than get down to the hard work and fix things!!
this has been DKLs approach to date
Agree with all that Harchris
my only point would be (and sorry to keep saying it) - although the BOD hold 20%+ of the company, if you look at what they have actually bought out of their own pocket (rather than allocated on the back of related party transactions, shareoptions etc) then its more like 7-8% max - and that is assuming they invested own cash when DKL first established - which i doubt!
so their alignment to our interest i would say has not been significant at all - their interest has been more in allocating themselves a greater share equity - to mitigate their own poor performance.
of course the flip side of that is PI dilution - us retail investors have pretty much taken the full financial hit in relation to poor share price performance to date (we can handle a share price drop of 50% if somebody gives us double the number of shares!)
if we want alignment of interest - this behaviour we need to stop! -
just in case anybody had not heard that message before!
Quote from Lincoln March 23 - Dekel Agri-vision doing a lot better than people realise
since then the SP is down 25% and the forecast SP down from 9p - 8.5p (admittedly the forecast is by WHI)
unfortunately Lincoln is absolutely clueless - if he jumped of a boat he'd miss the water!
When you actually look holisitcally at what DKL has delivered since inception it really is appalling (let alone comparing this to what was promised) - how Lincoln and others are still in post is both incredible and does not bode well for the future.
we are still at less than 40k tonnes produced - after what - 8 years of production? against a capacity of 70k (which was then subsequently reduced to 60k without adequate explanation)
outside of that they've delivered nothing - no guitry and a pathetic performance in delivering the cashew capacity which is already significantly overdue.
lets be honest we are all now just hoping for performance in spite of the board - we are hoping for a business that can succeed regardless of how bad the management are !
that is really desperate!! but its unfortunately where we are - i can't see the leadership making the necessary changes (or they simply cannot recruit the right calibre)
Hmmmm - any material uplift not until q2 when recommendations implemented!
We all know DKL - that target will be missed by a mile - it’s another year of poor cashew performance
Q2 with DKL management and delivery - no chance
The business is very simple - hence the initial attraction - sound solid business, build upon sound fundamentals slowly and take growing annuity type profits each year in form of expanded business footprint
2 issues scuppered us so far
- lack of delivery has resulted in numerous failed promises
- Dekel acquiring shell businesses (i.e. ideas) using significant issue of shares to BoD - and then requiring finance/debt to turn them into actual businesses - double hit
hence my ongoing point - sorry
- fixing issue 1 is critical - and i would conceded that we are starting to see more consistent positive updates - this needs to continue
- but point 1 will not be enough without evidence that we are not going to continually see more of point 2 - doesn't matter how good everything else is if this continues.
Its what we have been saying for a while - at the risk of been a stale old timer as Hereandnow tells us - it is worthy of note for everyone
this share will change when we've had a period of not just positive updates - but sustained proof that DKL is operating on behalf of all shareholders - not just the BOD (i wont go over all the reasons again - but ive been saying this for a while now)
with regard the valuation you can definitely make the case that DKL is worth alot more than the current valuation - as Danny notes below the current valuation is basically no higher than the current net asset value!
value doesn't impact share price though if board have history ofv finding ways to focus the additional value on themselves
i know its boring and stale hereandnow and you are sick of hearing it - however how about the solution been that the board adjusts its behaviour and shows a sustained effort to reward shareholders - rather than the solution be that everyone who can't shut their eyes and close there ears should sell up and move on.
Its says it all FK
in the last week or so - we've had
- Production updates with narrative suggesting the we are on for strong finish to the year
- impressive increases to the CPO price over the last week or so - as reported by Harchris
- WHI coming out re-iterating the 9p target price
net result - a 10% decline in the share price.
DKL are a totally busted flush - the market has seen them for what they are and given up! there's no interest in a self serving board who simply can't deliver for their S/Hs - through either lack of capability / effort or likely both.
its a long, long road back now - best thing DKL can do is shut up completely and focus solely on deliver and proving they can generate value to S/Hs
nobody has any regard for the puff pieces or updates - they have become an embarrassment - only results over a long period will sort this - short term results won't help either now because the market simply expect the board to dilute the benefits away from retail s/h - there's simply nothing to invest in here at the moment.
My tone and narrative will certainly change if i see a change - believe me - i'm not here to make losses.
but im not though going to pretend reality is different to what it is - Dropside has nailed it below - the promises (some of which id even forgotten about) that were made to what has materialised is pitiful - this business can work - but it needs better leadership.
HarChris - i get what you are saying - but the frustration is they have attempted to pull the wool over our eyes
- We say they have a huge amount of skin in the game? presumably because they have tons of shares (around 35% of total) - well i disagree because of that 35% only about 8% have actually been purchased (that's assuming they laid out capital at the start rather than fund raise - i actually expect they did not put cash in themselves but lets pretend they did) - the remaining 28% has all been given to them out of the 3rd party transactions - and i've made my views on them clear.
- The Board have done very well, due to the above, on the back of poor performance - whilst long term retail shareholders are 70% down - the board are up - the boards % shareholding has stayed consistent and market cap is up 40% - they are doing ok.
everything you note below id be in agreement with if wasn't for the above - i can take losses when it aligns to a board with integrity and genuine drive to deliver value - sometimes things don't work out, i can take that.
The board here haven't done that - they have looked to take the easy route - slapdash delivery, self interested transactions and a complete lack of integrity.
however - the positive is i think its reached the end of the road for them now - they have taken us for mugs for a much as they can - their interests now have to be aligned with ours - the market sees how this has operated to date and i don't believe it can work again for them.
and for whatever influence this board can have or my/our small voices - i am going to continually call them out on it