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Pickledpeck: I also hear what you say - but the fact is that after a monumental crash since Aug 22 the SP is currently at 1,102p (as I type). It would seem that the pessimists have a very firm handle on DEC - and until good ole Rusty can show he's in control again (which IMO he currently isn't) then there would seem little cause for optimism. I will be buying no more DEC - just a hold and hope for me (and no longer a good dividend to keep me happy whilst I wait).
I thought you said you weren't buying any more Clued - only holding?
Pìckedpeck, AI with human oversight is the responsible way to use AI. AI is a tool, an assistant, but should not be the decision maker until its algorithms have been trained to that level of competence.
Diversified Energy IS THE BEST SHARE TO BUY AND HOLD.
Notrex,
I understand where you're coming from, but I can also see where Rusty was between a rock and a hard place. I the same circumstances I would likely have done the same thing, it is hard to see what else they could have done. Given they only have a certain amount of FCF deciding to utilise to protect future years by paying down debt is the right choice.
The issue with interest rates is that it normally drives long term commodity inflation. What happened here was that the two moved in opposite directions, at the same time as finance costs went through the roof gas (and wider commodities) prices fell off a cliff. One of my other main investments literally went bust because of this effect, so I know exactly what feeling burned is like.
I actually think against that backdrop the company performance has been pretty good, in fact exceptional regarding emissions and effectively closing down the Congress inquiry. Maintaining FCF is no easy trick, it isn't a given that DEC couldn't have made worse choices and disappeared completely.
Pickledpeck: That's a bit like saying the car is overall in very good condition - it's only the engine that's buggered.
Incidentally, it was also manifestly clear that good ole Rusty had no contingency plan in place for when interest rates rose - which they were always going to do sooner or later. If so - why be talking about 'never cutting the dividend' until the minute before he was forced to do so? Not a good look is it?
Clued, we are all here to make money, shorts and longs are taking risk to do so.
I really do object to AI driven shorts as you may tell. AIs are good at trends, not fundamentals. They analyse what they see as correlating factors inflexibly, humans can adjust correlations when circumstances change.
We are right now in the midst of AI vs human investment wars, the AIs have been given the big Guns of ii deposits so human insight and intuition is currently the losing side.
Whilst skiers posts are simplistic most of his content is more or less right. The earnings potential and discount to NAV here is very high and shouts loud to that human intuition, whilst the bots see spot gas price negative sentiment, a high risk factor and other indicators which lead them to sell us down.
Clued: Most of the extant shorts (exempt Adage - who really are in the money) initiated their positions around £10 to £11 or below. Consequently, they really aren't currently looking that healthy - albeit they have jointly contributed to the dire sentiment here - but that is primarily down to good ole Rusty and the car crash crew. But why should he care eh - he'll just award himself some more options to reward his manifest failure (see SP for definition of manifest failure).
https://www.fca.org.uk/markets/short-selling/notification-disclosure-net-short-positions
Notrex, that's a negative reading of very positive results. In fairness all the business indicators are strongly up, EBITDA in particular near doubling in three years is not marginally up.
The biggest negative in the result is that FCF is effectively flat despite all the other performance improvements, undoubtedly impacted by the rise in interest rates which is beyond company control. That limits the company's room for manoeuvre so a shift to paying down debt to improve FCF is definitely the right way to go in my view.
Pickedpeck, thanks for that, I feel more important already !!
Diversified Energy IS THE BEST SHARE TO BUY AND HOLD.
Guaranteed rise from today !!
Pickedpeck, I would never lower myself to congratulate Shorters on making profits, certainly also not at my expense. Until they crystallise their gains they haven't really gained as recently they've been losing. I view them as leeches tbh.
I also bought at over £20, but won't buy more of DEC as have enough for that risk. I simply diversify more instead with the divs as that spreads the risk.
Whilst these boards are full of ramper /shorter accusations which are usually nonsense these boards do have an effect.
AI based trading platforms incorporate 'social media' listening algorithms to judge investor sentiment. They 'listen' to bulletin boards, twitter/X, and anywhere else they can to add a investor sentiment factor into the trading algorithm.
So, posting here, on twitter, or wherever, about how miserable your investment is making you may well actually contribute to your investment getting worse. Really.
So whilst people posting negative sentiment constantly may not actually be shifters, they may be contributing actively to fooling the AI algorithms regarding investor sentiment.
Bear in mind what's public lags what's proprietary by a few years, but have a look at:
https://www.financemagnates.com/fintech/education-centre/pros-and-cons-of-ai-in-sentiment-trading-revolutionizing-investment-strategies/
Pickledpeck: Well done for stating that which I was aware of - my point was to see if skiramp had any idea - as opposed to spouting his 'soundbite' ramps.
However, these improvements in the accounts have been known for some time - you yourself go back to 2021. But the SP has been falling consistently since 2022 (and that's putting it mildly!). Consequently, why should what are relatively marginal improvements in EBITA, Revenue and margins suddenly be a catalyst for dramatic improvement in SP. Particularly as FCF has (again as you note) been actually falling relative to the above?
We have a shed load of shorts who are clearly assuming DEC are heading south - albeit we have recently been making tiny improvements in SP. The savings consequent to the trashing of the dividend have not been (to date) spent of an aggressive BB campaign (it's currently pitiful). We won't know about repayment of debt for a while - but hopefully that will be a potential catalyst. However, given good ole Rusty's predilection for buying more and more wells I suspect that is where his focus will be - we'll see in due course I guess?
I doubt notrex is a shorter, just a long term holder who is burnt and negative about the experience. If you bought at 100p (£20) or above on the basis of income, then you have seen both income and asset value reduce dramatically. Bound to leave you pi55ed off.
Its interesting that it seems a lot of the asset value erosion, and consequently the demand to slash dividend, was driven by bot based shorters like Voleon. Forward selling 5% of the equity in a crashing gas market created its own momentum and narrative. Well played to the shorters, they made money.
The real question for Johnny come latelys is what next? The gas market looks set to recover, the shorts will have to fold at some point against the gas market reversal. So forgetting the slightly limp buy backs, 5% of the free float will have to be bought back by the shorters. In theory that should reverse the drop from 75-90 (£15-18) that the shorts precipitated.
Hello Axe - still playing solitaire I see!? LoL
Gas price is depressed right now, spot price coming out of the El Nino winter of 23/24 is in the gutter.
However:
November 2024 Contract $2.993 and rising
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/futures/NGX24
November 2025 Contract $3.884
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/futures/NGX25?mod=quote_search
November 2026 $4.181
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/futures/NGX26
All three futures are trending up sharply, so a six, eighteen, and thirty month gas market view looks a lot healthier for producers, and DEC forward hedges should be easy to achieve at a decent profit margin.
NOTREX the SHORTER! - Continually goes on about how much he is down here, and then bashes the company and any poster every single day that remains positive about company!? Agenda folks - it all there!
Yep - SHORTER!
Also...
Net cash provided by operating activities
2023 : $ 410,132 2022 : $ 387,764 2021 : $ 320,182
But...
Free cash flow
2023 : $ 219,096 2022 : $ 217,727 2021 : $ 227,334
So cash generation from operations consistently up, but FCF not keeping pace due to increased interest payments, holding just about level.
Across the last 3 years the results for 2023 were obviously the strongest, with most indicators strongly up despite exceptional markets in 2022 and 2021.
I'm not a ramper, but I am also not irrationally negative either. In fairness to skier...
Adjusted EBITDA
2023 : $ 542,794 2022 : $ 502,954 2021 : $ 343,145
Revenue:
(Total revenue, inclusive of settled hedges)
2023 : $ 1,046,327 2022 : $ 1,023,547 2021 : $ 686,905
Gross margin
2023 : 52% 2022 : 49% 2021 : 50%
Skiramp:
1.Revenue here is up - evidence / source?
2. Profit is up - evidence / source?
3. cashflow is up - evidence / source?
4. Buybacks are up - no they aren't - Fact!!
5. The signals are (very) strong - says who? - You!? LoL
Just your usual ramping crap.
DEC charts look ready for a fresh push toward the £12 level. Revenue here is up, profit is up, cashflow is up, buybacks are up. The signals are (very) strong.
Thehickster: Could greygeorge be quietly buying ?!!
Trek I've just had to pick myself up off the floor as not only did DEC start blue but it seems to have held it to the end of the day. Anyone know what the hell has happened to enable this? The second coming or something?
Nobrain "P.S. I do believe that's now the ninth (yes - 9th) time you've told us about PE of 1 vs 7 "
And if correct it needs to be said considerably more times.
Walleye Capital reduced their short by 0.1% last Friday - now on 0.79%.
Be grateful for small mercies eh!? LoL
https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BQHP5P93/
Open 1074, low 1076, high 1099, source google finance.
You must have had a bet on hickster. Obviously as surprised as I am!
Good luck
Trek