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I think this is not a bad share to trade. Bottom seems to be pretty stable at 90p and a massive potential upside. I have considered day trades to average down but fear of missing out when news drops stops me!
Tinners if you were not here to just talk down the price you would do as I suggest and compare the 4D investment spend with that of its US peers such as Evelo Biosciences and Seres Therapeutics.
They are doing much less with 2-3 times the expenditure
@StayLong. I read your post re following the directors buys. Just be careful with that. 4d burns cash very quickly. If it was your business you’d put money into it as well. That doesn’t mean it will be a success. I hope it will be but there are a lot of new people now buying and selling shares without really understanding the risks. This is gambling, there is no other word for it. I hope you do well. If it hits 90p I’ll be back in again. If it rockets I’ll miss out. C’est la vie!
Long term yes I agree with you. Short term no. Only the MMs know what the price is going to be day to day but the trends are fairly obvious. I’ve said it before but IMO this is a 2-3 year investment for big returns. Good BOD I agree but for me at the moment I’ll just trade it to gain 5-10%. I’ll invest (again) at some point. GLA.
@StayLong I certainly agree that this is very under valued. But I think it will take trial news before that value is realised. I'm not here to deramp. I'll probably not be posting much until I re-enter so don't worry about seeing deramps here - even if I do sound a bit negative in this thread.
To be honest, none of us have any clue as to if this share is going to go upwards, downwards or sideways. The only people that will have any idea at all are Duncan and co. So, the fact that they have put a very big chunk of their own personal cash in @£1.10 is the best clue that we are going to get. I think I will follow them if that okay :))
Guys, people have the right to their own opinion. I don’t see neither Xenor nor Sang deramping. I thought Xenor made a good point. You shouldn’t have a go at somebody just because their stance is different from yours. I also think it will now bounce between 90p and 110p for a bit. I hope it does since I made a decent chunk trading it when it did it 6 months ago!
Xenor
Both you and Sanji are like a tag team. We are not interested in you subtle de ramps.
I think the opposite and this share will all of a sudden move upwards and a lot of investors will get caught out. This is probably the most undervalued share on AIM. Should be at the least around the £1.40- 50 level for starters.
GLA
I don't think Sang has been deramping. I think a lot of people were buying this recently expecting news in June and then sold once they realised this isn't happening any more. I sold because I could see what was happening, although I didn't act quickly enough. I will re-enter when it tests 90p again. I think this will bounce between 88-110p until trial news and I'd rather my average be at the lower end of that.
In what way have I been deramping?
I posted stuff on Stocktwits yesterday that was upbeat.
I pointed out on here, in response to someone saying that 0518 data was due this month, that the last update said it might not be until the autumn.
Sangijuelas1 you are blatantly ramping and deramping when you bay and sell you have been on a massive ramp for days on stock twits then you sell and you start deramping here sad sad sad man
It doesn't have to be all or nothing. You can just trade the margins and keep a core.
Only way to treat baby bios
It really makes you think that some days you are better trading this share than holding firm like I do. Onwards and upwards as they say.
@staylong
Fingers crossed!
Yes I know Scrambler, I picked up on his subtle de ramps back then. It’s great news that Xenor has just sold his holding. He always gets it wrong. When he buys 4d goes down. And now he’s sold it should go ballistic :))
ColdBrew - most people on these boards pretend to be great traders for some reasons but reality is that for most people trading ends up in tears (more often than not). Those that really have the skills to trade successfully - I salute you. I still believe in 4D coming up with the goods (I hope not to be proven wrong) and I am holding. I admit that SP dropping today 5% (despite 4D having investor meetings TODAY!!!) is annoying.
Also, it has been established that November timeline was only Sangi's "interpretation" (as he said) of what AS said in the presentation. I have never heard ANYONE from 4D Pharma saying results will be in November or alluding to that, please if anyone has let me know. My understanding was that it was meant to be end of Q2 (i.e. end of June) but that timeline has clearly been extended.
Below is what ontarget posted earlier as he kindly went back to the Oncology presentation to double check.
ontarget Premium Member
Posts: 3,063
Price: 104.80
No Opinion
RE: positionsToday 10:51
https://zoom.us/rec/share/AAOcdfEgoFmNOZOf4mZCdckOf_nsaoPUAONvEKzLWEgQ9Z7jceKOPS6HK9uTuBu_.2XToVuUDCDppAFXt
53:30
ReplyRecommendReport Post
ontarget Premium Member
Posts: 3,063
Price: 104.80
No Opinion
RE: positionsToday 10:48
"Later this summer."
"Did you say later this summer?"
"Later this summer and into autumn, yes"
So entirely consistent with September.
Sangi is probably right about Autumn for news on oncology, but I don't see that being as late as November. The cash runway extends to Q2, you have the Christmas period, and they'll want to get news out well before then to strengthen their negotiating position, as well as the share price. There's also a multitude of other updates to land this H2.
So the way I see it, news could land at any point to shift the share price, on any front, and 4D will be working to make that as fast as possible (balanced against updates actually being worthwhile).
Any opportunity to top up below the placing 1.10 price is a good one. You can trade, but doing so obviously risks you being locked out for if or when news lands, resulting in any major re-rate. Seres rocketed 600% at one point overnight, on positive P3 data.
I'm very bullish on the oncology front in particular, also Blautix, and would far rather wait patiently for news to land. I'm confident Duncan and Alex know what they're doing, and comforted significantly by the fact they have some serious skin in the game.
So far from selling up or trading, I'm continuing to use this as an opportunity to top up. Each to their own though.
@staylong
I wouldnt trust Sang1 at all. He was on here last year doing the same. Very subtle and sly.
Yes Sanji definitely has ulterior motives
A lot of people on this board seem to trust him. He always sounds so convincing. We all now have to believe him that none of the investors in today’s meetings will bother to invest in 4d. Yeah right
I sold mine as I don't want my money sat idle for a couple of months whilst the traders sell, make money elsewhere and buy back cheaper. You don't get rewarded on AIM for holding.
Good luck to you Sangi. Will make sure I make my own interpretations of what is being said, thanks for that, that's a always a good advice on these boards, a lot of said without much substance behind it and with various ulterior motives :)
In terms of June timeline expectations driving price rise - I disagree. In any case, hope your other investments work out and you should never invest in any stock more than you are comfortable with.
buyers picking up @ bargain prices
Xenor potential short term rebalance in the hope of gains elsewhere, against the probability of money sitting idle here for a couple of months
I was going by memory Phil and when it was said while watching the presentation I took it to mean much later than the original forecast given of June, which was why I was so overweight here.
The Blautix data released recently was originally due at the end of last year.
These are my interpretations and you are entitled to make your own.
Last week there was plenty of talk of June and that was one of the factors driving the recent rise.
Sang every time you post the share price seems to fall.
If you are rebalancing your portfolio why would you be buying back in the 90s? I do agree with you however we will no doubt revisit that before the Autumn.