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What i understood to be true (!) is the cln money has been paid upfront... the clns are more like 4.85 warrants, paid for, upfront (so, again, a very cheap entry or averaging down for those insiders who could take advantage)... the roadworks will complete (though costs are unknown so hard to know how much of both fundraises are for that and how much might be left over for a potential asset purchase)... and the shares are very difficult to buy so could see a forced rising price, based on the hope that everything that was stated last year ANd again, this year, might actually come good!
the biggest reason for optimism is the price of copper. whether CRTM manages to get to the point it can regularly sell 10k tonnes per month (Fryer says a couple of months post road completion so... Sept latest). but, even if the brakes are put on the progress, unless something materialises that kills the company stone dead, there will be time to get into this as the mine proves itself up (or not). just have to wait and see what news comes next and make the judgement.
meanwhile, there's probably money to be had trading this just on sentiment, the limited shares now available (warrants still priced at 10p so double current price) means the sp could rise fairly quickly.
one can't argue that Fryer IS a good spokesperson. Whether his 'enthusiasm' for timelines that spectacularly fail is now taken into account is to be seen... but, at this low, it's worth considering.
The Q&A on the Hive last night was hilarious. Glenn Gordon getting all excited and giddy while ignoring the rule breaking of Fryer. Gordon was the same fella posting all sorts in the Contango telegram group for months including old articles of Carl Esprey and Andrew Groves. How convenient he now ignores the blatant rule breaking of Fryer 😁
If investors and shareholders sit there and allow a CEO to dump his shares quietly hoping no one will notice while his company do fund raises and puts out PR tweets and the investors and shareholders pretend there's nothing with this and completely ignore the issue, then don't be surprised when that CEO screws you over. CRTM might come good, it might not. But a CEO who doesn't even have the decency to explain why he failed to report his sells in accordance with PDMR is not a CEO I would trust. And no the FCA are not prohibiting him from explaining why he failed to report his sells on time. But then again dishonesty seems to be a recurring theme amongst the clients of St Brides Partners.
I have to agree with InvesterPA on that one. You cannot play such a deceptive game and then hope people will support the actions which are detrimental to public perception. If anyone is interested on Goolemaps put in -11.080038798476734, 27.665040650575285 which is the location of what appears to be the stockpiles Fryer claims to be able to sell (190m x 130m). The 'stock' is primarily base don surrounding mines low grade as you keep the high grade separate and in enclosures such as the bags visible (about 44). So as we know nothing has been mined per Fryer statements the mines dependent on 44 bags of 500-2000kg weight = 22tn - 88tn. A lot will come down to the concentrations in the mounds and bags which we still don't have. Its metrics like these I like to know. I will be posting the pictures in the next few days its not all doom and gloom.
Disclosure? This is Fryer we're talking about. The guy who very conveniently forgot about PDMR reporting rules and waited for the FCA to catch him before he fessed up to dumping his shares.
Seems to me there's just zero trading in this until market knows whether the cln holders are just waiting to punce and crash the shares or whether Fryer is going to try and delay that result until the road is nearer completion and the sp rises in anticipation (assuming he can do that!).
sp looks to be on a knife edge as to which way the sp goes first, and what happens thereafter.
(personally, i'd like to know just how much the roadworks are costing and whether both placings are being used in full... also, i'm assuming thee would have to be disclosure if Fryer is also part of the clns?)
Excuse my error, another sign then that the internal faith in the direction of CRTM isn't held by those likely in the know. Perhaps they heard the rumblings of dissent about the salaries. I saw PCX reporting earlier. Glad I fell the right side of the Edwards-Jones debate but time will tell
Thompson isn’t still there. It’s in the announcement today, he’s stepped down already - after about 6 weeks.
You worried me with that first comment as Eastman stepped down 1st April 2024. Thompson is still there. Eastman is still connected by Orana corporate so I suspected at the time it was a way to lower their outgoings on CRTM books (perhaps as the board take such sizeable salaries). Addition of a geologist today seems a step in the right direction but time will tell. JORC JORC JORC
Meant “Anthony Eastman STEPPING down”
Gordon Thompson stepping down from the board and he was only appointed on 1st April
Not a great look coming only a few months after Anthony Eastman Stephen down as well.
You might have some wait yet for JORC report. Previous announcements have been :-
19th Dec 2023 - "The drilling data and information is planned to be inserted into the JORC report which is expected to be released in Q1 2024."
8th Jan 2024 - “….the JORC report which is expected to be released in Q1 2024”
10th April 2024 - “....ultimately create a JORC report. The timing of the commencement of the drill programme is currently under discussion and the market will be updated in due course”
It seems to be getting further away rather than nearer. As "knokke" said on here, there's been plenty spent on board wages, but nowhere near enough on the drilling. There is just no reliable and comprehensive information on what is in the ground.
At least once the remaining trucks from the first ore delivery to OM Metals get through, that will give some idea of what is in the ore that has been dug so far, as OM Metals will be processing it and paying based on grades.
@Bohercom thankyou, my grasp on social media isn't the best. It doesn't show much but as per my previous comments I was worried (the now) 38-68 day completion was not feasible. The video would indicate they have commenced and are using the right equipment to improve the road which is as you say something. Looks like a 2000 gallon water tanker and motor grader and they weigh over 10-12 tons so at least heavy duty vehicles can traverse the route. The compactor if 17tons shows heavier vehicles capable of being supported (hopefully supporting the 25-40 ton trucks. From the images I've seen myself from last week before these works there were HGV type vehicles on the route from Malambwe up to the mine, so I have a bit more trust using objective eyes without RF lens fitted via social media posts. I am cautious but slightly more optimistic. Times ticking and I still won't go in until the JORC is out.
@InvestPest - Last night CRTM tweeted a small video of the roadworks starting. It doesn't show much, just a water tanker spraying water on a dirt road, but at least its something
https://x.com/CriticalMetals_/status/1787952954755920209
There is going to have to be an rns when the clns are first converted and so i imagine the holders will try and push the price down so they get more shares for their conversion?
with over 2 months before completion, i wonder about when they will convert before the price might start rising on expectation of that completion.
I apologise, I was reviewing the copper output as a metric to assess the share price (SP) of the companies investing in the active mines. You are correct they differ to CRTM drilling. It appears there is a lot of buying and some selling going on today. I must have missed something, unless it is just the belief that the share price is at a turning point. Luckily, we are only 40-70 days from road completion based on RF's comments to Vox. I'm looking forward to the sample update from South Africa and the 'transparent' JORC report.
I will update the road pictures. Does anyone have ideas on where I should post them, as I cannot do it here? People use Twitter and Instagram, but is there an easier option for me? I've locked myself out of my Facebook account, so that is not a viable option sadly. I was considering letting RF go first with his update in 40 days or his next interview. Maybe he will realise investors are not fools and will go beyond just trusting face value.
You might be confusing copper output with Molulu's targeted ore output.
It's about drilling. Unfortunately, last Ann rep shows something like £140k exploration, £497k board wages. July Dec added similar exploration, but needs to be doubled, for phase 1 & 2, but that hasn't been the company's priority. Rewatch the last interview and compare to the RNSed 3% grades 15 months ago. Conclusion: it's all about the drilling
I was in discussion and looking into nearby mines in the Molulu area:
Ruashi - 38000-42000 tons per year
Etoile - 25000-35000 tons per year
Kinsevere - 70000-84000 tons per year
Have a google (-11.36381, 27.56893 Kinsevere) at the scale of these mines then look at Molulu. Quite a stark contrast in the infrastructure. So then I think about the 10000-15000 tons a month claim (120000-180000 tons per annum). This will mean in the next few months Molulu would become the area leader in Copper... or maybe someone who doesn't know the size of the structure he's sat on is just wishing? So my thoughts are whatever RF says we are not going to be hitting 10000 a month, and realistically albeit maybe years away could hit similar to some of these mines but only with drastic expansion which will be at a cost. So this isn't IMO about only the road its about the sales pitch that is coming with these interviews. I looked at the companies behind these mines and they are in the £0.30-£0.50 ranges after years of hard work. So lets not perhaps get ahead of ourselves as a year ago CRTM was in the £0.26 based purely on no product and speculation. So looking at what we have I am thinking buying now with a longterm perception of x5 is acceptable but any more than that is misplaced hope. I absolutely accept no mine is the same and RF could be sat on large deposits but I prefer to benchmark, assess before I move.
To convert the SMEP to a full exploitation licence you need the viable plan and enviromental certificate, but the SMEP can get a one-off five year extension if the Ministry of Mines don't object. The full licence gives a much longer time frame.
OK, so there should be an existing set of env plans from the licence, but i dont see it, a new version would be needed if anything changes (new method, equipment, mining approach, buildings, etc) and probably take closer to three months to get done, but it does need a study to work off. For now, ore sales, shipping off site seem to be fine.
The current SMEP licence expires in December, can be renewed once then a full exploitation licence is needed with feasibility study and enviromental certificate
And from the crtm prospectus:
"The Project is required to be operated within DRC health, safety and environmental laws. The New Mining
Code and the Mining Regulations contain several environmental and health and safety regulations including
the obligation to obtain an Environmental Exploitation Permit from the Ministry of the Environment, obtain
approval for a mitigation and rehabilitation plan and submit an environmental impact study and a project
environmental management plan."
So still to be done.
Its good to ask questions
Interesting question. I thought it was all covered under the small scale mining licence they have (SMEP No. 14784).
Also interesting, that I've not heard RF address, is what is the plan for when the current mining licence expires on 29th December this year ? I believe it is extendable, but from memory in order to extend you have to be able to prove an economically viable mine.
If I'm remembering that correctly, it makes that JORC report and the sales even more important.
Wouldn't crtm need an environmental exploitation certificate from the Ministry of Environment to mine ?
To mine in DRC an environmental exploitation certificate must be issued by the Ministry of Environment after they review a environmental and social impact analysis and environmental management plan and a rehabilitation and mitigation plan. That takes about six months from submission.
Where are Critical Metals?
Normally the ESIA, ESMP and Rehab/Mitigate plan use the feasibility or bankable studies as a base . I don't know if there is a work around from an old ESIA that the licence would have had, but for anything new, they may need to wait until there mining plan is ready to produce the enviromental plans then wait six months for approval.
I don't know, I a trying to work it out
What's wrong Allen/Korriban? Don't like the truth? 😁
Perhaps it will change this time, but it does sound like the same interview again and again for the past 18 months.
You really have to question why RF keeps saying things like "we could ramp up our production from 10'000 to 15'000 (tons) a month just by adding more equipment".
16th March 2023 he said - "By end April, no by end May probably, we’ll be at 10,000 tonnes per month”.
14th June 2023 he said - "Produce minimum of 6,000 tonnes per month, ramp up to 10,000 tonnes per month over the next few months, then potentially up to 15,000 tonnes per month”.
He talks about "ramping up", but production has been what, 6,000 tonnes in total over 18 months ? If that is what is actually ready to go - all we really know is that 2 x 40 tonne trucks have gone to OM Metals before the road couldn't handle any more.
They have never got even any order of magnitude near to 10,000 tonnes per month, or 6,000 tonnes. They doesn't seem to be any mine plan, any equipment ready, or any real infrastructure at Molulu to cope with that sort of ore volume.
It's just silly even to mention volumes like that at the moment.
(but i too find personal insults inapppropriate on a financial investment bb)
This really is a repeat of 2023.
we did a road rebuild and...
we had several buyers interested but only one at a fair price?
we've had to raise £1million to facilitate that sale?
price has utterly tanked over that year so, for new investors this might well be a good bet. for old investors nursing horrible paper losses it's going to take a multibagging to get back to evens.
i'd be happy to go along with that if it weren't for the opacity of the cln fundraise. until that manifests itslef in the first issue of shares and at what price, i'm not confident to be getting back into this and looking for the recovery that everyone wants.
also hate that there's no price on the roadworks nor any info about why there were two placings for the same work?
also rather hate the rerating of the 40p warrants to 10p. implies that 10p will be an easy profit for warrant holders but i find it hard to trust a ceo who engineers personal gain in tandem with retail gain (which has been lacking, considering how many times he's announced it).
waiting on the sidelines until there's better proof. plenty of time to get in on a rise and longer term future.