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I cannot remember where I heard it but apparently Intuitive do not make acquisitions of this nature. They are so utterly dominant in their field that they can probably achieve their goals through agreements that grant them exclusivity without the need for an acquisition and all the baggage that comes with it. Apart from which Creo is so so tiny in comparison to Intuitive that it simply wouldn’t be worth the energy. But it would be nice to be wrong!!
Just a thought, with Creo's tech and the size of Intuitive is it not feasible Intuitive may consider a buy out offer of Creo?
Interesting that this seems quite a significant move up. I realise this can move on thin volumes (in either direction) but maybe just maybe there’s some news behind this. Would be so good if they could get a formal tie-up with Intuitive Surgical, it would appear such a natural and obvious step for both parties. Getting traction for organic sales is so painfully slow we could do with a step change.
30K punt, where have you seen that?
However nice to see this on the up, long may it continue.
No scheduled news or reason for extra trading, other than someone thinks this is a good 30k punt. Insider or institutional, doesn't really matter but I'm guessing news will soon back it up.
Nobody here just me and my echo. Lol
I've noticed up till Wednesday our sp fluttered up and down in a gentle fall like an autumn leaf. Then we got decidedly spikey like Sid Vicious haircut. On Monday a sub 30p drop with no trade and from then a steady climb as the 15 or 20k share trade has been replaced by anything up to 1m.
I smell news............
Last Sunday's tip was summarized in 'The Week' yesterday:
"Creo specialises in endoscopy kit, facilitating quicker surgery and faster recovery - bang on current NHS trends. Sales have doubled as the tech is globally recognised and adopted. At "inflection point". Buy. 32p"
In the Sunday Times today.
Too early to say SS, because it would need the trajectory of growth in core revenue to climb a steep curve, which it's hard to be sure about. In the last six months they have generated revenue from core products equivalent to the whole of the previous year - so if that exponential rate can be sustained over the current six months, then the momentum would suggest they are home and dry. The doubling was from a very small base though, so it;s still unclear if it can be sustained. The substantial reduction in costs also allows a longer runway for income to catch up.
Creo featured today in the Sunday Times’’s tips section, should at very least bring some extra awareness from the wider investor community and hopefully a tick up in SP
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/share-tip-innovation-puts-creo-medical-on-a-healthy-trajectory-d6dchlk83
So will they break even before they need to do another fund raise??
· Cash and cash equivalents of £26.5m at 30 June 2023 (30 June 2022: £26.1m; 31 December 2022: £13.1m)
· Post balance sheet receipt of £4.5m R&D tax credits
· Underlying EBITDA loss (EBITDA with R&D tax credits and other accounting adjustments added back) of £9.2m, representing a 15% reduction vs. H2-2022 (£10.8m)
Gulliford highlights the benefits of the Albyn acquisition, which effectively provides a ready-made US distribution network for the new products, which to some extent complement existing Albyn offerings
Thanks Mesquida. It's dated 17th August:
https://www.edisongroup.com/edison-tv/creo-medical-executive-interview-with-craig-gulliford-ceo/32615/
Suprised that nobody has mentioned the Edison video interview. It has been available for 4 or 5 days but so far has only been viewed about 70 times. Well worth a look.
Good post Sheerclass. I agree that in isolation the Oldham numbers are not that exciting but I think what we are seeing is an increase in noise from Creo as take up widens. We know that the addressable market is huge, we know their is no competing device, we know that the take-up process is necessarily slow but most importantly we can now see the first signs of a proper momentum. Other hospitals and other surgeons across the UK (and I guess abroad) will be taking note. Cash burn does of course remain a concern and I have no doubt at all that in the past this has been excessive. Back in February the company promised a significant reduction in headcount this year and this is what I would like to see. How they managed to get to 375 headcount with such derisory sales does seem astounding but they set a 100 headcount reduction as their short-term objective. Hopefully they can achieve this through natural attrition because the last thing we need is a raft of redundancy costs. Please do share the Molten Ventures take on cash burn.
It's a very positive RNS, however it's got to be considered in the context of each device generating ~£850 revenue (Cenkos note in Nov 22). So annualised it looks like Oldham could do around 150 devices, so £130k revenue. To really start scaling they need dozens of sites like Oldham. Let's see what the interim cash burn looks like when they report next month, I think they have amazing potential but they've overreached in their roll out strategy. They should be aiming to conquer the US, UK & EU first and then ROW, instead they are doing it all at the same time. This means cash burn is excessive.
There is a good comp is the Molten Ventures portfolio that I'll post later that illustrates just how excessive Creo cash burn has been - I don't see that changing in the next couple of years and do think they'll need more cash as a result.
Fabulous RNS!
Positive news. Word out and support building from the med community. I'd like to see another training hub appear in another part of the country. Being at risk of BC myself, it's a bonus to know the procedure actually removes suspected pre cancerous tissue.
I suppose most micro pharmas are basket cases until the product or drug is proven in the field. We have proven successful, now we just need to push sales and avoid a round of funding.
I would characterize doubling revenue from core tech as a little bit more than "encouraging". It is a marked improvement from previous years. A step change. Not sure how expectations got so high here - prior to the fundraising this was generally regarded as a basket case.
Yep. Realistically the improvement in sales is encouraging but certainly not explosive. Getting more users is clearly critical but if achieved will be reflected in significant increases in consumable sales. I'm idly wondering without having a clue to the answer whether the ability to supply the consumables might be an issue if the products really take off. Personally, overall I'm quite encouraged if for no other reason than there have been no real negatives in the medical outcomes. Quite the opposite so far. ALL IMHO obviously!.
Yes all encouraging. Would be much happier if I saw details about promised reduction in headcount, hopefully as R & D tails off this will be delivered. Simply has to get to profitability without a further raise, this has to be the holy grail.
A lot of the r&d has been done, the cash balance should be very healthy. Its now abut pushing sales. Happy to sit and wait for next God news which might not be far away by the shift in sp. It looks like our support is between 31 and 40