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I believe that the lung ablation market could be huge.
Very positive RNS
Got some for 31.5p.
A little cheaper then last weeks ordears.
Another AIM gamble ,addiction & most lose. ( And its lent )
One Hardman & Co liked in an article few week back .
This stock is on my watch list but I just can’t quite get to wanting to add it to my portfolio. Happy for the resident bulls here to try and convince me otherwise.
What’s holding me back from buying is my gut feelings on risk/ reward ratio. You see I’m looking at this thinking;
Pros - love the tech, it’s advancing in a very important sector, new versions brilliant, more advanced and better than anything else in market, massive worldwide potential, without doubt will ultimately get brought out, tick tick tick.
Cons - growth rate slower than expected. exiting tech in hospitals does the job albeit not as good as this tech but no rush to spend to update what they have hence why traction slow.
Massively loss making and burning cash at right rate of knots and my gut is telling me they won’t make break even without another raise not with the current traction rate. I cant understand why the cash burn is still this high at this stage? And finally I’m thinking the MCap is £114m no way would someone pay to acquire this at that price with the losses they are making so I’m thinking any upside to the SP is more than already priced in. Possibly I missed the boat at the 20p raise although I can’t help but feel if they do come for more cash I might still get opportunity later in the year back in the 15-20p range anyhow, can you see my problem here?
The unanticipated R&D tax credit reduction actually amounted to "over £2m". Pretty "unfortunate" if the CFO is not monitoring relevant government tax changes, especially ones this significant?
The market was clearly hoping for even faster growth, but when you take the tax issue into account, the figures are satisfactory and all moving in the right direction. With breakeven now only about a year away, and clearly visible, I can't see a need for further fundraising - the trajectory seems firmly upwards over the coming months. Assuming no further similar tax hits (CFO?) then the next results should look comparatively enhanced.
This all seems positive to me, no change from what we already knew with no lag in anticipated timescales. As long as they can get the contracts with the various health care providers worldwide this should be a winner. This remains a share not ideally for widows and orphans but I’m happy to keep hold and fingers crossed my ship will come in.
Obviously i refer to the race to profitability before running out of cash. i can see how the initial response might be a little underwhelming (shares down around 5% at this time). Although there are improvements in sales and revenue they are not exactly breathtaking and despite a 10% reduction in costs they are still pretty high as is the subsequent loss. The tax credit hit of (was it 2m?) is a further blow although obviously outside the companies control. The not very well disguised elephant in the room of another placing before profitability will continue to weigh as nothing in the RNS reassures against this (or more specifically does not reassure me).
This is so close as the technology obviously works and is being successfully adopted. On a very personal level (DYOR) I see no particular reason to bail out of my small speculative holding at the moment.
"the Group remains on track to reach cash flow break even as planned, with the Company well positioned to meet its stated growth ambitions."
Thought this might rise today given the bit about breaking even. Anyone?
The significant thing is the start of regulatory approval in a potentially massive market. The Hong Kong doctors response is hilariously sober and restrained, but highly complimentary
But they do need really big year-on-year percentage sales growth just to breakeven....
I do think this will fly when they release sales numbers
Robots are nice
Terribly precise
But much more efficient
Not doing things thrice
Take 3 instruments into the oesophagus? Smart robots use Speedboat F-poem, you know it makes sense!
This is a game changer, a revolution, a coup - "We were thrilled to witness the successful execution of the F-Poem procedure using solely the Speedboat device, a task that traditionally requires three separate instruments. This not only showcases the device's efficiency but also enhances the cost-effectiveness of the procedure, underscoring the economic advantages Creo's technology can deliver"
A trading update was published this week last year. I'm looking forward to positive news flow imminently.
I don't see training as an issue - they invested heavily in that a while ago, and now it is well established and widespread. The multiple recent use cases are an example of the large number of practitioners already familiar with the tech. The emergence of the mature product, probably close to the final version, makes the case even stronger for hospitals around the world to get on board and reap the substantial benefits. The robotics companies may also have more incentive to invest in integrating the tool into their systems, because they are now dealing with a standardized, mainstream product form. Target for break-even was sometime in 2025 when they last spoke about it. I'm hoping this year will see a constant drip of positive newsflow, including confirmation that that target is visible and static.
thanks for the link. chris han**** is very impressive. when you listen to him you are in no doubt whatsoever of the quality and value of the creo technology. he is adamant that there are no competitive threats to the creo technology. it is not just the precision of speedblade, it is the fact that procedures can be carried out very quickly plus recovery times are slashed. you are saving the cost of say three nights in hospital, whatever that is, plus you are increasing the capacity of the surgeon or consultant to carry out these procedures maybe threefold. the only downside is that every consultant needs to be trained to use these instruments and that takes time and resources. i see the key to be getting the creo technology coupled with robotics so there are two sales tracks, one necessarily slow and the other much faster. in the interim, as several other posters have observed, there has to be very strict control of headcount and costs. getting to breakeven cashflow before existing cash is depleted has to be the holy grail. whilst another raise could be achievable if progress is very solid it is time for management to start meeting targets. the next sales update could be one of the most important and hopefully the recent sp movement is telling us they are well on course.
Https://x.com/rckhlld/status/1741934502123893179?s=61&t=NLG8GlLfvfmvXPP4BlgPCg
Interesting article in Sunday Times magazine about robotic surgery. Creo are bang on the button for this and the normal laparoscopic techniques. The Da Vinci robots being described are made by Intuitive Surgical as referenced previously.
@Theorist
Thanks for the reply, appreciated,
This is certainly on my watch list, product side is certainly impressive. My only concern is the cash burn. They believe they can be cash flow positive in 2025 but a quick calculation of CAB at 30/6 indicates a burn of circa 20m in H1 with 26m remaining so if they spend same in H2 we would have about £6m left in Q1 24 so looks to me a further raise bolted on first quarter which could be why they are at the pitching event on the 11th Jan. you don’t bother with pitching events if you are fully funded. Not a bad thing but I would want to know what that looks like and indications they can make this viable.
Speedboat is VERY impressive for sure but MCap is also fairly racey IMO. I will attend the pitching event if I can get down to London. Add a few in the next placing if they can demonstrate stronger fiscal control.
Good luck with this one, a solid base they are building from for sure
Https://x.com/rckhlld/status/1740817314885611791?s=46&t=WZzoFQM8kpCT88d1sI2kew
2024 you mean
Nice rise today. Heading in 2025 for my 100p SP target.
Thank you Souville.