Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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So if atomic closes don’t forget about all the warrants and options that will be exercised at .2, .29 so we won’t know what is going on until March 15. I sure hope we bought out the insolvent shareholder w.i. There will never be a special dividend. I think we heard there is an African play that can use the same gas technology to unlock a proven field as the atomic team is doing already so we are on a buying spree to use a proven process.
Amerisur was worth double of what the BOD sold it for. The pipeline alone was worth $100m. We were all stitched up on that one.
@sparkz correct on both points.
Tiburn,
If we do start pumping 7000 bpd by december then mcap should be 200 million on atomic asset alone as amerisur had more than that on less production. That gives us an sp of 1.8p.
Then if we do get a couple of wells producing at opl226 too the all bets are off
been multiple oil and gas hits on 226.... you know that better than most
Ask Tiburn what "the oil is there" means in a boardroom in Calgary.
That and $45.00 will get you a day of parking at Banker's Hall.
I’m starting to think your cluttering up the board
Our stale old recovery share a bit of a dinosaur
but the best kind , goodnight , have a feeling we
are hours away not days :))
M ore
E nergy
G reat
A ssets
B eginning
O n
O our
M agnificient
A cquisition
S ignature
A tomic
U SA
R amping
U p
S hareholders
:))
Let’s keep the ‘lottery ticket’ comment in context... the oil and gas is there, by ‘lottery ticket’ he meant we could hit the jackpot rather than hit oil
We discussed using the profits from Atomic to pay the $6m on OPL226 about 3 months ago when the Atomic RNS dropped. So nothing new there.
Just for you MKB
:))
Lord Almighty
feel my share price a rising
Higher, Higher
It's burning the leader board
MM's burn burn burn
copl will set you on fire
well your tick up's lift me higher
like the sweet song of the choir
you light my morning share price
with a hunk of MM burning sp love
I feel my share price a rising
Help me , it's flying
it must be a hundred and nine (1.09p yeah)
Burning Burning burning
and no seller to cool copl down
won't be long before our 3p sellers around
lol :))
wish it where the Whiskey
:((
A+++ Tiburn.
An industry professional's wisdom, experience, and analysis always appreciated.
It's the needed context that balances a "what if" and "geez I hope" man like CawCaw.
Also, lovely to see comparables from:
a) a higher risk geo, and
b) a historical lower oil price environment
Make no mistake, our new assets being in the first world and in a (newly-) stabilized political regime multiplies their value.
Throwing my 'what if' hat into the ring, I would personally gladly see our Nigerian "lottery ticket" traded to the CNOOC in exchange for their flowing barrels (on terra firma) in a rule of law country. A bird in the hand, etc. etc.
This is the faster route to billion-dollar market cap in my mind. As much as the faithful will hate the suggestion.
Anyway cracking good session on both sides of the Atlantic. Onwards and upwards, hopefully.
You’re on fire tonight! Must be all the oil.
Relight my copl (well)
your oil is my only desire
Relight my copl
cause MM's we need some love
Rerate my copl
3p , our Atomic desire
Rerate my copl
MM's we need some love
Give us a rerate in the Morning ding dong our share is gonna shine
rampers tells some whopper but MM's get us to 1p on time
:))
Hawkes
we should have some news before the main event on the 15th, at 6% rise all this week
and next would be sitting at 0.633p next Friday awaiting Monday 15th confirmation if
it does not arrive earlier, once finance signed off
Thinking the 2 charts posted from twitter today DC and Zac, indicating even without news
we could make a platform of 0.75 awaiting the big rns dropping
sentiment and a following herd wind from that base camp give's us a target 1.75 - 2.25p
and if II's load up big and sticky, could overheat way beyond, before a pull back to settle
at new trading range
lots of mental days coming this year as things progress
:))
All good Gents, sparks other trains of thought....... HFB and the relative cash sales deal value in USA vs my S American Amerisur example (Colombia no less) that has to add another big % to the value, bid war...nice.
Dougs point on Nigeria leverage from Atomic revenue a v good one, those reserves at 150m barrels at 15% owned..... bizarrely it now plays to our hand having a Nigerian PSC award delay as time to bank the $6m from Wyoming sales in year instead of dilution on first oil in 226.
Also only about 5 years ago a uk listed oil and gas, sitting at 20p for months, initial offer from
Shell 80p per share for its share of an offshore Mosambique discovery , bidding war ensued
and sold for £1.25p a share to the Thailand NOC
Nigeria/Essar/Shorecan on development could provide a similar surprise dividend
chasing 5-20k bopd per well (the Majors /NOC's will be monitoring developments)
Nice analysis Tiburn, thanks also for sharing.
Your est. 8000bod (which now appears to be on the conservative side of the recent simulator model figures), still comes out a wee bit short (by c.1000bod) when set against the est. 15% figures for OPL226.
Currently thinking that once the Atomic deal has been done, the quickest way to then reduce the effects of any further dilutions (eg. NOP’s 27%WI &/or CNOOC’s 15%WI) may be thru the immediate purchase of the additional 10%WI in OPL for a meagre $6M, again sending the sp north. An RNS to that effect maybe...
Excellent post again Tiburn -you are by far the most incisive deep thinking poster on this Bb.You also possess a technical knowledge regarding oil and gas extraction which is truly appreciated.And to boot no elementary slip ups re market status which can be pounced upon by that very pedantic master of his own imaginary fleet bloke lol.Keep them coming!
very possible on a sale scenario as offer prices on other than a distressed seller ALWAY much
higher than the value attributed by the market and would say Atomic would have a higher
value rating than South American assets
We stole Atomic at $2.18 a barrel reserves when USA field rated £7.50 at NPV 10% as sales
done by in the ground regional risk valuations not the value out of the ground
When WTI/Brent $160/165 a barrel before the great crash a few short years ago, the regional
risk ratings worldwide ranged from $4 - $12 with typically middle east low and deemed safe
area's like the USA at the top of the tree
Just imagine if the super cycle as some analysts believe is again in play and those ever rising
prices return, in a year or two USA could be back to a $10-12 regional risk and Atomic could
be a much higher valuation on field development , increased reserves etc
Wytch Farm in Dorset was originally brought online as 30m barrels of reserves, BP bought off
BG and commenced FFD, in very quick order Wytch found to be a much bigger fish, at its height
on FFD produced over 100,000 bopd and was the biggest production of any field in Europe for
35 years
To this day Wytch originally 30m barrels had nearly 300m reserves a couple of years ago, until
developed FFD you just never know what's lurking below
Atomics projected flow rates suggest a very nice reservoir in place, so plenty of scope for a
nice surprise on step out drilling and FFD , THEN might be the moment to sell and give us
all a 25p special divi LOL
:))
Excellent research and analysis Tiburn, thanks for sharing
5p for Atomic but we keep the other(s) not bad, good work Tiburn.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AMER/recommended-cash-acquisition-afcfv06m7i2lism.html
BENCHMARK WITH AMERISUR
Amer shares in issue in 2019 on company cash sale – 1.1 Billion
“Amerisur's blocks in Platanillo and CPO-5 provide low risk development opportunities.….. 2P reserves of 21.8 million barrels….where in each case multiple development drilling opportunities have been identified to continue growing production. “
“As of September 2019, the two main producing fields …..were producing a combined gross rate of 7,872 BOPD”
- Total AMER P2 reserves = 21.8 million barrels
Atomic has 31.1 million barrels P2 NET at 57% WI
- Total AMER production - 7,872 BOPD
Atomic main BFU production reaches 8,000 in 2022, plateau at 7000 average until 2026, then 10,000 from then after with Cole Creek.
Both have upside drilling prospects.
Comparable in reserves, production scale.
The extra 43% reserves from COPL to factor.
AMERISUR CASH ACQUISITION BY GEOPARK
“GeoPark is a leading independent Latin American oil and gas company …..with a market capitalisation of approximately $1.2 billion as of 14 November 2019.”
“Pursuant to the terms of the Transaction……. each Amerisur Shareholder will be entitled to receive for each Amerisur Share: 19.21 pence in cash (special dividend)
“The Transaction values the entire issued and to be issued share capital of Amerisur at approximately £242 million”
BENCHMARK
So equivalent potential value, with COPL at 43% more reserves = £345m cash value of a developed Atomic field producing at 8,000 bpd with 31.1 m barrel P2 reserves.
Equivalent COPL special dividend sale value per share based on 9.7B shares = 3.6p a share
If the NOP and CNOOC WI bought, then reserves on 100% WI is 44.5m barrels, the equivalent sale value using this benchmark may be £484m - special dividend value per share = 4.9p a share
COPL STRATEGY
Thus potential scale what the market may value COPL Atomic asset by year end and 8,000 bpd in production, IF developed and sold in this manner in due course. Once this scale of production is reached COPL will be on many radars.
I would prefer they keep the asset for a while and gain the revenue, but if sold in the future then COPL would still retain Nigeria, plus all the oil revenue gained in period, other assets bought for development - key is shareholders retain their shares.