Chris Heminway, Exec-Chair at Time To ACT, explains why now is the right time for the Group to IPO. Watch the video here.
Materially misrepresenting the situation yet again.
That is not how default works. It is serious and the remedies (if there are any) extremely costly.
Further: The creditor (who COPL is already in default to) must authorize any future capital project.
"Plans" to drill $30MM in wells does not mean "authorization".
You are so full of it. Every day.
And you have a built-in conflict of interest, because you claim to be long.
Every time you convince the unsophisticated that a bright future is around the corner, you profit directly.
Just look at all the BS you spewed about how wonderful TODAY would be.
Now you have just amended your broken-record wealth prophecy to "soon".
"I don’t think so he needs to man up, and explain this QUICKLY in a clear concise manner via an interview."
Explain what?
MD&A clearly explains what happened and why. No interview required.
Most of this information was broadly known, and/or easily forecast based on source data such as WOGC reporting.
How about certain prolific posters here do an interview?
They can explain how they were not manipulating sentiment by promoting false narratives to control the SP.
(Aka "protect their investment", right WWAL?)
Any LTH who took advice from this board and got burned: Ask yourself who burned you.
Who gave you the vaunted wisdom about how well this was going, and what did they stand to gain from you holding or buying?
"There is no way Art or shareholders should be railroaded into a cheap sell off."
Dude WTF are you talking about.
More pure unadulterated lies, being upvoted by people who know better.
This is a public company for sale on the open market.
If a hostile takeover happens, it will happen at whatever price the buyer pays.
This isn't Art's company to do with as he pleases; it is the public's company.
The courts can only intervene if the judge believes that shareholders are not receiving fair value for their shares.
Which would not even be the case at the *current* price, since it would reimburse shareholders for more than NAV. Never mind a modest premium of say 25%.
To be clear: By choosing to fck the share price into the ground (through ops failures plus comms...credibility gap), the company absolutely 100% has its arse in the breeze right now.
It can easily be acquired at say 45p or whatever and no lawsuit would be able to stop it.
Only reason that hasn't happened already is no one wants to pay even that much for it.
This isn't even a bad thing for longs; I have no idea why it would be so important to lie about it.
TO BE CLEAR:
This discovery is probably real, and there are probably loads of *reasons* to believe it's 1.9B BBL OIP over 47,000 Net acres. There will be lots of evidence *pointing to* it being what the press release says.
It's just that the threshold for calling it Reserves, and Booking it as Reserves, is very very high.
And is not met by "accumulating evidence" such as antique well logs from competitors who never flowed the formation.
Until they have flowing wells, or book it as reserves, or both, the markets are unlikely to show up and re-rate the stock from pennies to pounds.
The thing that a core group of manipulative posters SPAM the chat room every day or two with is probably not realistic.
In this case, the 2P NPV10 Reserves that everyone (correctly) says are likely to revalue COPL will be able to be estimated, published, and added to the balance sheet after the company has done more drilling.
As an investor: Until you have seen drilling and other activity on the discovery, it remains just that -- a rosy press release, a marjority WI (not 100% as many liars claim), and a single wellbore showing promising logs and cuttings.
Remember that they so far have exactly One wellbore: A well that (due to bad luck) managed no DST, not much production, had has its' own target formations packed with mud and cement -- leaving outsiders to wonder why the formations would take such a big drink if they are at pressure.
BUT WHAT ABOUT DINGOCHOAD MINING GOING FROM 0.1P TO 0.4P ON A BOLIVIAN LITHIUM "DISCOVERY", BEFORE BOOKING RESERVES
Discoveries do sometimes move the needle on microcaps, wannabe unicorns, AIM hopefuls, and companies that don't have anything else going for them. And good for them.
But for Producers that already have Assets, the markets tend to be interested in additions to Production and to Assets -- surprise surprise.
100% of posters who state "1 billyun barrilllsss any day nooowwww" are lying.
They are longs who profit when you buy, so of course they are trying to convince you to buy.
So-called "3P Reserves" = as stupid as it sounds. Markets will tell you to fck your hat if you try to show them "possible" reserves; this is a contradiction in terms. Unless you are a five man shop with a $6MM MCAP and nothing else, no one cares about your 3P.
I think the misunderstanding is rooted in failure of posters to agree on the meanings of certain industry terms -- terms which get thrown around very loosely here, but should not be. Because the meanings are not flexible.
A couple of key words are used interchangeably, despite the fact that they basically could not be more different from one another: "Discovery" (and all facts and and figures following the declaration) means something very different from "Reserves".
DISCOVERY
The most important thing about the term "Discovery" is it has no codified legal meaning.
I can say I think I discovered a cure for loneliness, or a way to get my wife's boyfriend to rinse our shared bathroom sink after he shaves with my razor in the morning, as long as I believe i did.
No additional proof required.
This is great for writers of press releases who get paid by the word, since they get to write about "discoveries" all day long.
Discoveries have a low threshold and are therefore as common as one would expect.
RESERVES
Unfortunately for longs in a mid-tier producer like this, there is a different term that is pretty much the only thing that markets care about: 2P Reserves.
Regarding a public company stating "Reserves" in any way -- even just in a press release: Due to multiple legacy accounting scandals by unscrupulous actors in by-gone eras, and the inherent conflict of interest of corporate management instructing their own employees to estimate the value of the assets, any statement of Reserves now has a carefully codified meaning and origin.
In other words, markets care about Reserves because the Reserves have to actually be shown to be there in multiple quantifiable ways.
The method is based on large amounts of hard data, analyzed by a third party at arms' length, and allows no room for interpretation.
If a company says Reserves, it's because they reliably do have those reserves.
The company is literally taking the number to the bank, and investors can too.
By contrast, again: the term "discovery" can be used at almost any time about almost anything, and markets care exactly as much as you would think.
Anything not booked as 2P NPV10 Reserves is as useful to the share price as ti ts on a boar.
Wookie quote
And crucially confirmation on reserves. Not sure we will get a cpr as such as a stand-alone news piece but we should get something alone those lines packaged within a yearly report hopefully.
CAW CAW quote
This fiction has been addressed by people who know better.
Over and over and over again.
Even *I* know better, and I don’t know much.
You guys just get the threads deleted then post the lie again.
Forbidden information that causes threads to disappear, and also happens to be true:
“To add meaningful reserves from this discovery, the discovery needs to first be drilled extensively. First phase of that drilling will happen, but will probably take the second half of the year at minimum. “
There I said it. Delete away.
Timeline is of course because of the Sage Grouse, plus they would need to fundraise. (Fundraise because drilling and completions are really expensive.)
You guys know this. You KNOW this.
You can confirm it by asking a geologist, (or a P. Geol), or asking COPL IR themselves.
Or googling it.
It is not a hard concept, and is the only thing that makes sense and fits with the facts available.
It’s why the MCAP hasn’t climbed yet. (Too early in the process. )
It’s why the comms are quiet. Nothing to comm except last year’s financials, which are probably going to sting a bit due to failure to get BFU up to full chuff.
Yet the utter insanity of screaming that a single well will somehow magically claim a reservoir the size of Edinburgh, AND add a billion barrels to the balance sheet, ANY DAY NOW GUYZ, repeats daily.
(GAMMA RAYS CAN DO IT)
Just wait. Be patient, be realistic.
There is probably a lot of money to be made here!!!
Why the core group of manipulators thinks they can talk up the share price just by camping on a chat room 7 days a week posting easily disprovable lies, I will never know.
It’s not working, it’s trapping unsophisticated investors in a risk position that is not appropriate to them, and it is making some of you look like (insert weird British insult that I don’t really know the meaning of ) numpties?
Wait how offensive is Numptie
Short answer is anyone asking ANY of these questions needs to not invest in oil.
Or if you do choose to anyway, you must not risk more capital than you might on a drunken weekend at a holiday destination.
As anyone investing in oil without fully understanding the concepts (and the stakes) is at very real risk of the same ending.
(That being waking up face down, without your money or most of your clothes, fighting an increasingly uneasy feeling that the metal surface you are lying on is a tailgate and the taste in your mouth is a hastily cut pine switch...and the sickening realization that the whole thing was your idea.)
Seriously this stuff is on Google. Don't ask people on a chat room who profit if more people buy shares.
"DYOR" is more than just a catchy signature.
Hang tight, relax. Good things come to those who wait.
You guys know intuitively what's needed, and you know it's in the pipeline.
Company's current strategic imperatives, in approximate order of urgency:
1) Address short term cash flow pending production coming onstream
Available information shows company on track for zero cash balance next quarter(ish) due to ongoing BFU production shortfall.
Historically, cash shortfalls have been resolved by private placing:
-First, RNSes reminding markets they are on the cusp of an enormous windfall
-Second, private placing refills the kitty in order to continue to pursue the windfall
Unclear when or if this will happen, but it would solve the problem.
(Pay no attention to those guaranteeing you no placing -- same people made the same promises every other time too. Just steel yourself and take it in stride. It's par for the course and in this case, a means to an end.)
2) JV or Farmout will be needed to finance the multi-billion-dollar cost of full discovery exploitation
We know the discovery must be based on sound science and thorough validation: JV/FO will therefore be easy to engage in.
There will be a lineup out the door of potential partners, begging for the chance, given the level of certainty we know is there from the RNS and interview.
Counterparty technical teams will analyze what COPL has, then advise their own management to bid high to be a part of this.
When we see the JV/FO announcement, we will know that this bass is as good as in the boat.
3) Reserves Audit required to book most or all of this as an asset on the balance sheet.
On the way very soon: Needed development wells can spud as early as August (due to sage grouse), and thus source data can go to Ryder Scott by the fall.
Ryder Scott audit showing full extent and quality of the new discovery could potentially available (and on the balance sheet) in 22Q4/23Q1.
This is excellent timing: By that time there will be production on stream from the development wells, so lingering cashflow issues will be permanently resolved and the project self-funding going forward.
An ideal time to also book a new billion-dollar asset; after the many hurdles and uncertainties of 2022 are long in the rear view mirror.
Look for this to bag and bag and bag and bag again.
This is coming good and you are watching it. It's a beautiful thing.
@Stas Agreed completely.
This has been a 5 year "lull" and an education for yours truly.
Not in my wildest dreams did I imagine the company could acquire very valuable assets, then translate that into a depressed share price. Quarter after quarter, year after year.
I hope that this time is different.
And I believe that the SP will eventually have to be allowed to rise, one way or another.
Sorry, who bears responsibility for the outcomes here?
Who should I take my concerns to, if not the person who looked into a camera and said "I won't dilute" and then diluted?
I don't get how people can watch their investment fail to perform, then not correlate that to the decisions and actions of management?
You can't act like I'm the only person posting this. It's literally posted every day.
@Stas "That says more about your timing of investment than it does regarding this discovery. One has absolutely zero relation to the other."
I don't time it because I am not a trader. A value investor buys value and holds.
There is value in the *assets*, but the company itself has prevented any of it from getting to shareholders.
This is tangible and has nothing to do with pessimism or optimism.
Management and pals have done very well here; we have public filings to this effect.
Meanwhile I have been diluted more than the vodka special at a toonie strip club on Tuesday night, then had what little value remained crushed by SP decline after SP decline.
Market clearly does not trust our storytelling fat man as far as they can throw him.
Today was 10x the proof you should ever need.
Look what he said THIS YEAR, shortly before either getting totally blindsided by the opposite happening and/or deliberately and personally DOING the opposite.
When yet another story gets published (the biggest story ever!) and the market sells off as they have today, what can I take from that? That I am a pessimist?
@Noob wrote "Credibility will go into some kind of negative atmospheric zero gravity zone if he releases this and raises on PIs immediately."
Exactly. And how many times did precisely that happen IN 2021 alone??
For the reference of all, this billion-barrel "discovery" is not booked reserves.
What it actually means in practical terms, in 1H 2022, is:
-CAPEX, usually (here) funded by shareholder dilution and overpriced debt
-more red ink quarters while company fiddles around with horizontal drilling and completion challenges that will be 10x greater than the ones that stumped the team in Q3 and Q4 2021
-a chance to milk the Placing cow yet again to try to fund additional adventures yet again
Note that I did not mention profit, which is no more likely this year than it was last year.
Atomic flowed 12 straight months of red ink under COPL stewardship, despite the story of it being "economic at $39 oil".
Market sees all of this and chose to stay on the sidelines.
What fascinates me is the rhetoric from apologists here.
Please bookmark my post and follow up with me in 1, 3, 6 months. Nothing would delight me more.
I see the value of my trading account. Because I can't eat OIP, I can't pay for my kids' braces with blessings from Nigerian princes, I can't get a mortgage with 246 feet of net pay. I need M O N E Y.
Bought at $16 (RS-adjusted) and currently sitting around $0.50 -- thanks to this massive discovery.
If that's a glass half full to you, I don't think your glass is full of fcking water.
@Stas I hope what you want to happen is what happens here.
Market has had since 2020 to "realize" how valuable this is post-Atomic.
We are now in 2022 and we have seen (at best) a valuation that is around the same as when our only asset was the Nigeria lottery ticket, and had never even heard of Wyoming.
Our assigned MCAP is around an 80-90% discount to FMV, per the markets, after a year of analysis and a year of halting production increases.
Management just stated that they increased our assets by maybe EIGHT FOLD. And the SP has at best blipped a few p higher, then retraced.
There is no measurement in which this has not been a multiple-quid-per-share company for the last 9+ months: Please explain to me why markets refuse to pay that under all circumstances.
LSE is married for life to the thesis that "all analysts in the world just don't get it".
It's like your antivaxxer aunty who "did her own research" on Facebook and "found what doctors and Ph.D researchers missed".
I am suggesting that you consider the alternative, and much more plausible investment thesis here: That O&G analysts know goddam well what they are looking at and have valued this according to the many factors that need to be considered.
Not the least of which is management performance, communication, and trust. Operational history. And willingness to create value for investors, rather than talking the SP up with breathless RNSes then immediately mining all the value back out via dilution.
Bottom line is if you want to see your billion barrels, the SP needs to climb FIRST. Bit of a chicken and egg problem, isn't it?
This forum possibly contains the most intense denial on the entire internet.
The real story here is the markets assigning a £38MM MCAP (not a typo) on news of this alleged magnitude.
It shows you what the professional O&G analysts collectively think.
Management: "We drilled a single well at 120 BPD. Drilling and completion took forever, cost a fortune, and did not go well. Most of the pay we encountered is apparently not at the pressures expected of an unexploited reservoir at that depth, and therefore drank every drop of mud and cement we sent down the hole. Formations are now damaged so unfortunately no testing is possible. HEY GUESS WHAT 2 BILLION BARRELS OIP FLOWING AT 50,000 BPD BLAAARGH"
The stock market: "Go over that first part again?"
Even 2 billion barrels can't make this climb because the trust issue is clearly trumping everything.
What else do you need to know. If analysts found it credible, it should have spiked to ten times what it did before settling out at a SP measured in GBP, not GBX.
There is a practical implication here: Exploiting this "discovery" will maybe cost a billion dollars in CAPEX, which will need to be raised using debt and dilution.
This funding is not available at the SP currently assigned by the markets to this company and this management team.
Until someone in charge can raise the needed funding, the billions of barrels stay in the ground.
This about that when you are defending the people who demonstrate every trading day that they do not have the trust of markets.