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Hello everybody
Today I took my first postion in copl, im trying to read as much j as I can,
Welcome to the LSE Board for COPL!
THE ATOMIC DEAL
COMPLETION DATE 15/3 AS STATED IN THIS WEEK’S NEW INVESTOR PRESENTATION:
http://www.canoverseas.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/COPL-Atomic-Corporate-Acquisition-Presentation-02-21.pdf
Two operated oil fields: the Barron Flats Shannon Unit (57.7% WI) and Cole Creek Unit (66.7% WI) located in the Powder River Basin in the State of Wyoming, USA:
· Current production rate of 1,400 bbls/d (gross) rising to 5,000 bbls/d (gross) in 2022 and c.7,000 bbls/d (gross) in 2026 (2P reserve case, Ryder Scott Report).
ROAD MAP TO OWNERSHIP OF ATOMIC
• Deposit (non-refundable): $1 million - COMPLETE
• Initial Debt-Financed Payment: $8 million for 15% of Atomic's Working Interest in all of its leasehold on or before December 31, 2020. - COMPLETE
· (Note: If the acquisition does not complete, the Company will retain this interest)
• Assumed Debt: $26 million at closing – FINANCE APPROVED PENDING COMPLETION OF AUDIT
• Total Additional Debt and Cash: $15 million at closing – FINANCE APPROVED PENDING COMPLETION OF AUDIT
• COPL Common Shares to Atomic Shareholder(s): $4 million priced at closing – TO BE ISSUED AT CLOSE OF DEAL.
VALUE TO COPL
Total Cost $54m
Estimated SP on completion of purchase of Atomic : 1-2p
DEVELOPMENT OF THE ASSET
- Roll out tripling of the gas injection programme at Barron flats
- Drilling cole creek plans
- Production ramp up - monthly updates expected all positive incline so no surprises but each one adds to the market cap and net worth
WHAT ABOUT THE OTHER OWNERS OF THE OIL FIELDS?
There are good reasons to believe that a 100% purchase the asset is possible.
- NOP (in financial distress) buyout would take us to 85%
- Chinese own 15% (being forced to sell by US Govt)
There is a $20m accordion facility built into the finance agreement which may be earmarked for this very purpose.
DOES COPL HAVE ANY OTHER POSSIBLE REVENUE STREAMS?
The Atomic deal came as a huge and very welcome surprise to the shareholders. The main reason that we had been holding was for the expectation that COPL’s interest in OLP226, a large offshore asset in Nigeria, being developed.
1 - PSR is assumed - no evidence to state it will not be agreed. It has been delayed several times however most shareholders would agree that it is likely to still occur.
2 - Oil is found already, next to a producing prolific field - drill planned is appraisal not exploration
3 - Essar want a rapid ROI to date on $70m exploration spend - can spend a lot, drilling costs very low and would want to capitalise on that asap - COPL are carried
4 - Nigeria have much to gain from their oil assets getting to production.
With 60k bopd assumed production
COPL share at 15% (5% with option to increase)
Oil at $40/b
tax 70%
lifting costs $20/b
This equals $19.4m net profit p.a
mc $331m
Note: Oil is currently approx. $60 per barrel.
OK let's start again
I just bought in today, been reading some on the atomic purchase, looks quite good to me, puts us into production, hopefully they can do the gas flooding and increse flow rates from 1400 a day upto the suggested 5k a day.she looks cheap considering, hoping the new US stimulus will keep poo up and higher, shoukd boom everywhere for a bit of the back of that, I unfortunately won't know as much h as the lth holders here but happy to try and add some input when I can, if there's any rns that I should read please suggest it to me, we have cash now to finalise the purchase of atomic, and hopefully some more for some extra wells, I belive we own like 50%+ who owns the rest ? Will we be able to develop the field more and add more Wells, good to see access to the pipeline is there and a comfortable cushion with cash behind us.
She looks prime to rerate over the next 6 - 12 months if everything goes smoothly, wpuld be nice if they can boost production up significantly, im sure once the acquisition is complete and accessed the board will show their hand in the next steps.
Good luck to all, unless ur shorting )
Funky
Thanks for the help and welcome daceon
O that's great, hopefully we can grab nop share for peanuts, would boost us some more, hopefully with working cash and no more shares issued, I see we have 9 billion, any hidden anywhere, sometimes there is, are the chinese being forced to sell or is that just rumour atm ? Either way we are the main holders of the field so all good, we should get to take her in the right direction.
I havent checked out the prospects in Nigeria yet, so the Nigerian asset has drilling plans ? Surely a jv there ? Off shore drilling can be pricey, any big boys got blocks close amd struck some sweet light ?, Nigeria has some great oil output and is one of the better more stable countries, shockingly enough, but hey Africa is stil lthe wild west, maybe a farm out would suit better there.
I would expect some news on or atleast some chatter on copl taking out NOP, would be interesting to know what they want for it, distressed sellers nornally get shafted with the purchasing company getting a bargain of the century, I remember pmo only to well
I opened my position on ig ( long ) figured I would use the leverage to x4 my holding, why not, be greedy if u can )
Welcome Funky.Despite being a lth I think i’lll pass on trying to answer a number of those questions tho-particularly the Nigerian scenarios lol.Im sure there are those on here who feel better qualified to pass on their insights but doubt if any answers should be viewed as definitive.My only advice would be to focus in the Atomic scenario and outcome for now..
Hi base and all
Thanks, prefer a fair opinion than blatant ramping for selfish reasons, personally I like a balanced view, hence why I don't block posters regardless, I bought it purely focusing on the Atomic deal, seems like a no brainer, great to hear the board are taking stick not wages, shows potential and keeps the overall yearly costs down, had a quick read of Nigeria, looked expensive, JV will be needed imo, anyway that's not the icing atm, Nigeria will become a bonus if we hit, my main focus is Atomic, not much to read as of yet, but I like the sound of monthly updates and future potential at developing the sites more, the more I read the more I like it
that's a very very good answer Base
:))
FS, Nigeria is cheap. Free carry on the first drill. Can't get any cheaper than that.
FunkySausage,
I believe this is the RNS you seek. Highlights the agreement between Essar and Shorecan (which I believe is 50% COPL and 50% shoreline ((our native partnership)).
Essentially Essar take 70% ownership and Shoreline have 10% on a free carry (5% to COPL). There is an opportunity for Shoreline to purchase the further 20% if 20% of the historic costs of the first wells are paid to Essar.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/COPL/shorecan-and-essar-mauritius-resolve-dispute-rrudaerrni5gl59.html
Or something like that, I’m sure someone more in the know than I will correct me if I’m wrong.
Muel
Sounds like you need to listen to AMs recent interviews to get the answers you are after. Hear it straight from the horses mouth.
The extra 20% of OPL226 costs $6m if the oil gushes forth. If there is no commercial oil then we may say "no thanks". Time will tell.
We don't just have access to the pipeline. We own the bloody thing!
Cheers YM, I knew it was there or there abouts.
Muel
I would urge all new shareholders to focus on both Atomic and Nigeria..... seems to be a real lack of understanding or appreciation what we have in Nigeria.... maybe Atomic’s not the first master stroke AM’s pulled!
I would urge new investors to treat Nigeria as an unknown unknown and assign value to it as such.
Sparkz and I disagree, and I respect his opinion.
Main difference in our assessments is one of us is going by colourful language and hyperbole in YouTube interviews by a self-interested stock promoter, and one of us is going by the geology.
It might be amazing for sure. But we do not know and have no basis for guessing because NOA 1 was abandoned before TD.
Hence the CEO himself calling the property a “lottery ticket” on YouTube a few weeks ago.
I would trade 10 OPL226es for 1 more Atomic and I would bet you real money that so would Art.
That may turn out to be the case.But as of today and the short term foreseeable future with regard to Nigeria unless we are advised differently we have Nada regardless of what’s on offer at Opl226 or percentages etc etc.Interestingly not even been alluded to by our ceo for a number of months regarding progress.I re-iterate it’s all about Atomic whose development is within our own control on completion.Simples.
Not sure what ‘current sentiment’ has to do with fully researching what your buying into!
Respect back... base has it right, ‘short term’..... it’s a hard one to evaluate for sure but without Nigeria our share price up until very shortly would have been zero so for me it brings value for sure and my main point was to research everything rather than part research, don’t think that’s bad advice.
Cawcaw, ‘colourful language and hyperbole’... pot, kettle , black maybe?... we have disagreed in the past ,mainly when I told you this would come good, was usually met with lots of colourful language and hyperbole tho!
We better get a March 15 announcement we own atomic and the insolvent partner working interest. The Chinese partners have no interest in a fast deal. The longer it goes the more their shares are worth . Opl is a quagmire.. The award to Essar from years ago came with ugly rumours of payments so it is an embarrassment. I don’t say that is true but the ugly rumours make it an embarrassment . Not sure how Essar fixes it. So i agree that I would rather have another atomic and not 10 more opl 226’s.
I dread to think what happens if the 15th passes by with no news.
Unlikely, but not completely out of bounds.
Yeah difference is I don’t pretend to be an expert on the internet or anywhere else, I don’t pump stock I own on YouTube, and I don’t otherwise take myself too seriously.
So I can be as colourful and hyperbolic as I please because no one is listening to me anyway.
There is no evaluation to be done on 226 by anyone at a keyboard.
Only way to estimate the potential, which is anywhere from billions of economic barrels to zero, is to drill a well.
Beyond that, all “analysis” and “research” on the property is like asking “how long is a piece of string”.
Anyone who tells you they have a good idea of whether it will be a success is lying. Probably for the purpose of misleading new investors.
That’s my basic problem with any repeat of the “226 will flow 60,000 BPD we just have to drill it” narrative.
Cheers!
Thanks for all the replies, ots appreciated
I'm hoping that Atomic will be boost us short/mid and long term, Nigeria seems just a punt, but crucially a free punt so all good there, I noticed the board is lacking some production experience, im sure that will change soon enough, it sounds like this deal came out of the blue, it should hopefully be worth quite alot to the company and SH, as long as its profitable, lets hope so anyway.
Funky
Just look at BPC over the past 10Yrs, a dead Cert with billions of barrels of oil anticipated, Zilch to show after the drill, very dissapointed but it's still alive, just.
CawCaw is right, only the drill bit will tell you if oil or not.
Cawcaw... bear In mind it was only a few months back you were so busy abusing AM on a daily basis claiming we were being conned day in day out....at the very time AM was already putting Atomic deal in place, lol..... so Based on that I’ll wait to see how 226 pans out rather than going on your advice
Sol... a dead cert.... really?