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Correct
These Boland drilling results are so overdue. Weren't they supposed to be out in January!?
I think the Ozzy Market understands mining better and the potential ..
GGP I think are planning a similar listing and CCZ have already, it gives a snap shot of the trading out of hours.. so
You would expect a 10% gain on the ASX over night will feed the London market curiosity and thus rise the same.
Does not always play out... but nothing is ever a given....
Certainly a good read, so if we were to list on ASX how would that affect us? I'm assuming our SP would stay the same due to arbitrage. We would get the benefit of trading for longer and I guess we will have more liquidity.
Well I suppose if they spread the volume across both exchanges we may end up with lower liquidity haha and our costs will go up slightly for complying with each set of rules and regs in each exchange...but would we say Australia and UK have a similar set of rules and regs...so technically shouldn't be too costly for cobra?
well hopefully the expanded interest will help
A good read , thank you !
Thanks for the article Trombone. I wonder what price Rupert has in mind to justify Cobra having re-rated as per Rupert’s comments?
Https://www.patreon.com/posts/cobra-resources-100754452?utm_medium=post_notification_email&utm_campaign=patron_engagement&utm_source=post_link
Nice little article on Cobra, interesting that this guy also thinks Cobra might list on the ASX, I wondered about this a few weeks ago
Sorry.. I thought I had but to be crystal clear.
I bought £21k worth today and yesterday in total.
No bed and breakfast, no Sipp Transfer and no sell to buy or buy to sell .
A simple increase of my Cobra holding by just over 2m shares .
Have a good day... :)
You completely failed to respond to my curiosity, you would make a good politician. You said you bought them, let's leave it there.
I bought a further £2k this morning at about a penny.
Stamp duty is a little less for share purchases below £10k
In response to your curiosity J... I expect a few who took part in the recent raise will sell a few and keep the warrants attached...
There are a few who make a living from wheeling and dealing and others that see this as sit tight and wait for the inevitable value increase . me being in the latter camp...
ATB
It's usually difficult to buy so many shares in Cobr all at once. So 1.9M shares in 2 trades is surprising to say the least and curious your 'buys' didn't tick the sp up.
Not on this occasion Jollifant I Purchased 2 lots of 950k shares outright into my Sipp.
I know its tempting to take a short term profit on gains especially with the recent spike but I do think
the Cobra SP will take off at some point and surprise many..
Maybe just my hunch but environmentally friendly district scale REE extraction....
Must be on the tick list of high net worth investors .
ATB...
Saw your trades but surprised they didn't restore the sp back to parity for the day. You sure you weren't just doing a xfer to your ISA?
Just bought another couple of million shares... Good value down here..
I'm not worried about the current SP...happy to increase on the dips..
Cobra has a great part to play in the REE space....
ATB
Looks like a few might have been spiked here. Difficult share to get the trade timing right....
And down we go again
come open bods dig the stuff up
fantastic and sencational wasn't that the words
Thanks again for your input SWS - very helpful. I obtained the Ph level of 4.2 for orange juice by a simple Google of 'acidity of orange juice' and the first table that appeared stated 4.2 for orange juice (and slightly higher for canned OJ).
Good luck with your holding of COBR - I can see why you are invested here.
To be honest, that one I don't care about anymore. It's been communicated several times now that the plan with the gold assets is to monetize them, and I do think it'll be possible to find a small-cap or mid-cap miner in the region that will acquire them for open-pit mining, especially if the gold M&A market that kicked off in the past year heats up. But is it possible to find a small-cap or mid-cap gold miner that pays a premium for the REE on top of the gold? I have my doubts about that, it might help in the negotiations, "Hey, you also have 40 Mt of REE at 700 ppm average overlaying the gold, which could come in handy if the REE market turns into a bull market either on green economy or China escalation dynamics", but I don't think a gold miner will pay extra for it in an M&A deal, it's at this point merely a factor to sweeten the deal for the gold assets.
Boland however, completely different scale, completely different economics (the acidity needed is much lower than for Clarke and Baggy Green REE, and ISR extraction seems likely possible), higher grades too. It did cost 6 months give or take, the shift away from the dual resource focus and the Thompson exploration target to a full focus on Boland, but as far as I'm concerned it was 100% the right decision.
Forgetting rare earths on top of gold
I'd like to add, Rach, that with Cobr you have to look at the rest of the company too, because the gold resource, even though it is not high-grade, is economic grade, all of that gold sits at shallow depths and is suitable for open put mining, where economic grade is ~1g/t, see for instance this article, which has been written when gold price was still much lower in 2021 than it is now: https://stockhead.com.au/resources/making-the-grade-what-to-look-for-in-gold-and-silver-drilling-results/
So the gold resource is 279k ounces. No, definitely not huge. No, definitely not a company maker. But given it's shallow depths that lend themselves to open pit mining and in one of the Top 3 mining jurisdictions in the world, it's likely they'll manage to monetize it as gold M&A heats up even more with the gold price ATHs and rolls down to the juniors (while for now you mostly have megadeals only like the Newmont takeover of Newcrest).
So 279k ounces. It's of course a wide distribution of what's paid for an ounce in the ground in M&A deals, but the absolutely most conservative estimate I find for inferred resources is 20$: https://munknee.com/how-to-value-a-junior-miners-gold-in-the-ground/
Note that the comments on it are crowded with info that this does not apply anymore in a 2000$+ gold price world and that Inferred ounces were valued as high as 80 or even 100$. But let's stay conservative and use the 20$ number. Alright, so that would mean if a company acquires Cobra's gold resources, even at this conservative valuation, that's 5.58 million USD, so 4.42 million GBP at current FX rate. In all likelihood any such deal would be for a considerably higher price, and not 20$ per ounce, at least if we go by the info in that link, if anybody has more accurate info, would be much appreciated.
Alright, so then Cobra right now at the 1.05p SP has a market cap of almost exactly 7m£, lets use the 4.42m£ conservative estimate for the gold, why not. Then that means you can currently buy shares in Boland prospects for 7m - 4.42m £ = 2.58m£.
You can like other resources better for their higher grade, for their nearer-term production start, but do you really think that with the scale prospect that Boland has now, that isn't a buy at 2.58m£ valuation for Boland?
Keep in mind that 2.58m£ val for Boland assigns a very conservative estimate for the gold resource value, and essentially throws in the uranium prospects in the new tenement adjacent to the Yarranna uranium deposit ( https://www.isoenergy.ca/portfolio/australia/yarranna/ ) and the REE prospect in Tasmania that is adjacent to the Deep Leads / Rubble Mound REE deposit ( https://www.abxgroup.com.au/site/projects/mineral-resources ) entirely for free.
So from all the recovery rates I've seen on IAC-style rare earths projects, the ones in this RNS are at the higher end for pH3, and not quite sure where you found orange juice to be pH 4.2, it's closer to pH 2.5 - 3 from what I know, see for instance Table 1 in this scientific paper: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6898880/
Where things become much more expensive and environmentally more impactful is when pH 1 is needed in the acid leeching, I'm not quite sure why the RNS includes both recovery rates at pH4 vs pH3, but possible to show that a relatively small increase in acidity from 4 to 3 vastly improves recovery %, especially when looking at Zone 3 (which also seems to be highest MREO grades) and especially the 79% Tb and 67% Dy are exciting to me given that these are the most valuable REOs.
Also, please consider these are the very first recovery rates, one resource that Rupert compares initial results to is MEI, and look for instance at this RNS by MEI: https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/MEI/02779218.pdf
Initial recovery rates for MEI were 32% Pr, 59% Nd, 21% Dy, 41% Tb, look at the increases in the RNS. Cobra again is known for focusing on metallurgy a lot (and some here would say they focus on it too much, Richy was one of the people being quite critical about the amount of metallurgy going on I think), so it is very likely that recovery rates will improve considerably as they understand the specifics of the resource better and better.
On your question if I think it's economic or not, there's work left to do and I think Rupert is the first one to be honest about that, you have many explorers who will always make it sound like "in 3 months we go mining", while both Rupert and David Clarke have been open in the interviews that the pilot project with first production would be 15-18 months from now still. If ISR works as extraction method, you can be absolutely sure that these grades are economical and that much lower grades would also be; of course there's no comparables in REE space, but the slide that compares the biggest companies in uranium and shows that profit margins are a lot better for Kazatomprom with 0.06% uranium grades with ISR vs Cameco that also has a high-grade hard rock resource of 8%+ grades: https://cobraplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/20024.03.25_bloand-results.pdf
You won't hear me say "This will DEFINITELY work", there's work to do, this was the first drill campaign that really targeted Boland in a systematic way. But it looks good, imo very good indeed, the scale and very low-cost extraction prospects are what makes this resource so exciting to me, well, paired with a market cap of 7m£, it's not at 70m£ like Pensana or 250m£ like MEI, the grades, hey, I'm not shouting from the rooftop about them, but from all I can tell, they look economic enough, and ofc REE prices would additionally go through the roof on any China/Taiwan escalation
SWS - can I ask a question of you? You seem to have a better handle on this than most. Now this is where I might qualify for the title of numpty :-) but here goes anyway! According to COBR figures for NdPr they claim to have 212ppm, 205ppm and 305ppm on the respective zones 1,2 & 3. So that's an average of only 241ppm over the entire area, that is only 0.0241% is NdPr. Now if they use the weak acid (they often refer to being just like orange juice, which is c. Ph 4.2) of Ph4 the ANSTO results give recovery rate of 20% Nd 16% Pr, 25%Nd 22%Pr and 45%Nd 35%Pr for respective zones 1,2 & 3; that gives a generous average of around 28% recovery for both Nd and Pr. Now here's my question - that looks to me like the recovery rate using the ANSTO methodology is 28% of the available 0.0241% (that's the amount of NdPr over all 3 zones as shown above) so the final recoverable NdPr is only 0.006748%? The same COBR release gives an average of 32.5ppm over all 3 zones for TbDy = 0.00325% and recovery using acid of Ph 4 gives a recovery of around 40% of that figure (using ASTRO figures) so that would be 0.0013% recoverable of Tb & Dy over all 3 zones. Do you read the published results any differently? Seems that they have a huge area and ultimately a good tonnage of TREO's etc but the recoverable rates look miniscule to the point of maybe being uneconomic? Sorry, that's 2 questions.
Certainly you can state your opions But disengenious not the appropriate word
To use ATB
Thanks SWS for your post - it does indeed contain some details of note. I'd definitely agree that both COBR and PRE have been dismal investments - both way off their respective highs. I'm not sure why Jollifant makes the claim that I own PRE; and Rach is short for Rachel so he's wrong on at least 2 counts. PRE was just a competitor that sprung up when I was looking at COBR.
I think your choice of investment may well do well IF COBR's proposed method of production actually works - as far as I can tell that's still unproven as yet (even in a laboratory level) - it works for lithium but only time will tell how it works for bulk REEs. By contrast PRE's method of extraction is proven and its much nearer to production.
I'll be watching both co.s going forward - good luck with your COBR holding.
Volume is looking a bit better atm