Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
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Hannam claimed to have had a really tough few months.
Wonder if that's because he's been working on concouding a deal with or for us?
This is going to pop, it seems people are taking some.pretty serious positions now (which also gets me thinking is there a small leak in the boat?).
Dome very systematic buys have gone through today.
So far this morning
it seems as if we are on the home stretch
Big week ahead I reckon
Up 2.7% at 28.5p. I can sell at that price but can’t get a live quote to buy on II at present.
We also need to think how much cash Calibre now have $60m gold forward sale, $100m placing, $160m cash in bank. They have access to debt so frankly Calibre are in a rude cash position. Valentine, as ryan said, is on budget and gold rally is going to increase that cash balance even faster. They could have $400m+ in a short time frame. Calibre will have only done all this if there was a plan as Valentine is on track and they had budgeted already for Valentine. gla
I mean they have 2.1m ounzes of gold resource and with 25k of drilling can take up to 3m. Obviously the resource across all land packages will easily surpasse 10m ounzes but whose counting but for Calibre looking to hit 500k ounzes a year asap to take full advantage of gold price explosion a canny buyer will pounce now while Condor are massively undervalued. Calibre run at 2 x cashflow, comparable in Canada is 8. Ryan believes part of that massive discount is Nicaragua and their under utilised mine and lack of resource to prove to market thet do not have future drain on growth. Adding Condor will completely change their Nic operation and as they have 15 quarters of growth market might push valuation of Calibre towards a bigger cashflow multiple. They will see a big rise in market cap over next 6 months if they can fully value their Nic assets and i think its pretty obvious how they might do it. Will they do it is a question of price. Calibre was always keen to buy Condor but at a very low price. This is why it is only a price matter and nothing else. Can Calibre meet Jim on an acceptable deal. Now Calibre paper is exploding its really now quite easy and Jim can save face by taking paper and some cash. who knows but what we do know is gold miners are back in vogue globally and have a long long way to go to get to a fair valuation.
DDD, don't forget the $60m USD gold prepayment they have agreed.
https://calibremining.com/news/calibre-enters-pre-commissioning-and-commissioning-8155/
They have already received $40m USD and the remaining $20m USD arrives 15th April. Is it just coincidence the timing of the prepayment and financing are both within a few days of each other?
Time will tell!
Speaking of gold, I heard hints of $2500 in spring and $3000 by the end of THIS year. Now that would be one for the history books if it happened. Even more interesting was the talk of $50 silver. Again, the drivers are FED actions on reducing interest rates and increasing geopolitical tensions - I've just read a Mail article on the effects of a 500kt nuclear weapon dropped on London. Not exactly reassuring when this sort of stuff is being rolled out: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13271529/What-happens-nukes-start-fall-Interactive-graphic-shows-parts-London-instantly-vaporised-engulfed-deadly-radiation-survive-unscathed.html
Just be aware, for anyone who hasn't seen it, that the ($100m) '...Offering is expected to close on or about April 16, 2024 and is subject to Calibre receiving all necessary regulatory approvals.'
https://calibremining.com/news/calibre-mining-announces-c-100-million-bought-deal-8143/
IF it is Calibre in the frame they will wait until after April 16th to make any CNR announcement, hence my 17th - 26th guess. I also doubt they will use all the cash, given it will be needed for working capital. I could see $20 - $40m thrown in the pot with the rest being paper. At least that's what I would do if I were Calibre.
Of course it could still be someone entirely unexpected, the Chinese, or even a player no one has even guessed. Gold is on a roll and that will likely bring all sorts out of the woodwork.
Simms. Cnr have 600 k reserves not 2 m . Calibre have increased from 200k to 1.1 m oz in the time they have been there as well as what has been mined during that time. I imagine in the 2 years they would spend constructing la India they will likely add a whole heap more without the need to finance and build a mine. He states timescale for permits etc. also adding concessions. Holding calibre I would be happy to see it happen but am still sceptical and don’t see anything in this vid to change my mind on that one. Only a few weeks to see I guess. Meanwhile the market is working for goldies In general.
Wow. Just listen from 26mins. Ryan says investors want bigger reserves and he almost says they want a big jump in reserves in Nic that sounds it is undervalued because of the low reserves. They are investing $25m a year in drilling and will take $100m+ to add reserves. Why bother when you have 2m ready to roll and reading between the lines Ryan is basically saying they want to buy and speed up that process. We are well within 400km so it makes complete sense, always has been. Question from day 1 is price. Now Calibre are booming they can afford to pay the price Jim wants. Ryan also says Valentine is on budget so again this $100m could be just Calibre taking advantage of market timing but i am betting it is there to smooth over a possible deal with Condor. We will find out. If anything happens it should be this month and regardless Condor need to update from its December update that was last real update on sale. Very exciting and 30p seems almost trivial on monday.
The interviewer asks Ryan King as to how much more capital they will need to finish the project. RK answers by talking about various figures relating to the history of Valentine, etc. but doesn't actually give an answer to the question. Maybe he is hiding the fact that they have cash waiting for an acquisition.
The interviewer (maybe by prior agreement) doesn't ask about any possible acquisitions even though RK states that the mill in Nicaragua has spare capacity.
Recent video. Hard to say but looks like valentine is costing a bit and they are in discussions in the financing of the sprott debt of valentine. Nothing about M&A.
https://youtu.be/Ti1IPb8MaMY?si=jlPORqIhqg3hOlVh
Jim has always been bullish on gold, I expect his investment here was him hoping that gold would rise to $5000+ before selling out. Sadly that didn't come to pass, but I think he still retains his bullish view on gold.
So, with that in mind, what would Jim prefer coming out of this sale process? A decent wad of (depreciating) cash that he'd just have to reinvest in gold miners? Or a nice stake in a solid gold producer where he can keep his exposure to the rising gold price? Perhaps even a seat on the board? As we are entering a commodities bull market it would certainly be a nice place to be for the next 10+ years of the cyclical bull market in commodities.
To that end, perhaps he was angling for calibre to buy condor since they started this sales process? We'll find out soon!
New tax year.
We might see a bit more volume in the first few days as portfolios are rearranged for the new tax year.
Looks like $2325 might be our end of business resting point today. If the markets are spooked about interest rate drops being later rather than sooner, I reckon they are more spooked about U.S. debt (plus associated interest payments - potentially heading to over $1 trillion a year this year), and geopolitical instability.
The FED is really in a bind. Real inflation is still high, the economy ain't so bad hence interest rates are still high(ish). And yet those same interest rates are forcing U.S. debt interest into the stratosphere. There is increasing talk of debt monetisation. Not a great situation.
I know some banks think that $2500 PoG is not that far away. Personally, if the U.S. debt situation accelerates, that will be an optimistic stopping off point.
Vs. previous years they are late. However, there is still time before they need to release anything. I seem to recall they have to release an annual report within 4 months of the year end. My view is that the delay is entirely down to the negotiations reaching a conclusion. I think there is an equal chance of the deal RNS/Annual report dropping any day between now and April 30th. My best guess is between the 17th and 26th, IF Calibre is our man.
Although as frustrating as it has been with the length of the sales process, holding out has been a blessing with the current POG.
The board is aligned with it's shareholders unlike other recent examples of M&A (particularly Shanta). We should fetch a decent price for this project. Just eagerly waiting for that RNS to drop.
👀👀👀👀pog
Seingred, I certainly hope you are right. Interesting to see stock markets are now getting wobbly given the interest rate cuts may not happen given uncertainty over the oil price.
Gold has held up well so far. I have a lot of my pension in senior gold miners so hoping the price of miners will start to catch up to the POG.
Mako mining have seen their shareprice balloon recently and now over $150m. Their paper is now growing at a fast pace so with gold producers finally in their ascendency it makes a paper and cash deal very easy for most so there are plenty of gold miners who in the last month have seen 40% rises to their market value and ability to access very large amounts of cash and that will equally apply to Chinese gold miners. Next week could be news.
Hi e l, it mentions including any shares to be issued, ie fully diluted. That’s what you would expect in a takeover. Also a dividend payment. Any deals I have seen state overall deal figure on a fully diluted basis and the corresponding sp. I don’t see any difference here. So personally have missed a div payment and around 2 p p s from selling on news. Glad holders have a little more for sticking.
Tml1 - they voted yesterday. 83.52% approved the deal. Needed 75%.
Seingred - "yes was a cheap deal for what they had" and also "how Cnr is fetching the same or more?". Think you answered your own question...
What I found interesting was that the offer was stated as pence per share, not a total outlay for the entire company. See 19/3/2024 RNS: "14.85 pence in cash...approximately £156.1 million"
This makes sense to me - after all the SP is what share.holders are interested in, but I think it implies that all costs, as well as any and all dilutive factors etc are already built into this final per share offer. Can anyone else clarify this?
Polo, if pog retreated 20% miners would drop a lot lower. Have seen a number of 29-30 % roses in producers over the last few years followed by the same retreat . However J reckon we are on a real breakout for this year. Shg was one of my main producers but sold as soon as the deal was anounced and moved the cash to clsk and microstrategy. Sitting fast was not a good idea and yes was a cheap deal for what they had. Peeved they recommended the deal but switching has been kind. Look at what Shg had and compare to Cnr then tell me how Cnr is fetching the same or more?