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The mid year earnings meeting has been pushed back until the 14th. Lets hope for good numbers, and final re-assurance of another dividend.... baby !
Another dividend with consolidation would leave us exactly where we are today. I hope an event comes by in early next year that increases the stock price. Like a sale .
Now Bank of America (Merrill Lynch) has revealed that it to has added 0.6M to its last declared voting position.
So Goldman Sach's is no1 for voting rights & BoA no2.
We still don't know who's reduced there holdings for everything to match up, but clearly something is going on when 2 of the biggest Investment banks in the world are aggressively increasing there positions here.
LOTM
Bought another 1500 at 169.958p but its not showing up on the LSE, that's the last 3 trades I've done Barclay's must have done them through another vendor.
Anyway I'm expecting some interesting movements this afternoon now that the USA is back from Labour Day.
LOTM
So it was Goldman Sach's who were the big buyers on 31st August increasing there holding by another 2.605M
I'm sure there will be other holding notices due to be released soon as that stock has to have come from somewhere else.
If it wasn't from any of the existing top 11 shareholders then there holding of CNE has just increased from 109.638M shares or 76.8% to 112.243M or 78.6%
Which means the free float is down to just 30.6M shares.
Hopefully the company website will be updated soon with a list of the major shareholders as at 31/08/23 rather than 11/08/23
Goldman Sach's clearly see value here.
LOTM
From EnQuest's announcement from 05/09/23 relating to the half year to 30/06/23
Kraken
Average production of 13,082 Boepd (18,556 Boepd gross) (2022: 19,527 Boepd net; 27,698 Boepd gross) reflected an efficient return to service of the FPSO following the anomalous failure of hydraulic submersible pump ('HSP') transformer units during May. Working alongside the vessel owner, Bumi Armada, the EnQuest asset team limited the impact on production, resuming production on a single train basis on 12 June and then reaching 80-90% production capacity through the refurbishment and reinstatement of a transformer unit in July. On 7 August, a further transformer unit was brought back into service, following a rebuild, returning Kraken to full production. New transformer units were proactively ordered from the manufacturer and are due for delivery in September, providing further resilience to production capacity.
The Group reacted quickly to mitigate production losses by executing maintenance work, originally planned for the third quarter shutdown during two periods of single train operations. No further planned maintenance outages are anticipated during 2023.
In light of the direct impact of the EPL on the Group's available cash flow and the indirect contribution to underlying inflationary pressures through incentivisation of industry-wide investment within a defined timeline, the Group took the decision to delay its plans to progress the Kraken drilling programme. However, near-field drilling and subsea tie-back opportunities continue to be assessed, with interpretation of 3D seismic data ongoing to access the significant opportunity in terms of main field side-track drilling opportunities, along with further drilling within the Pembroke and Maureen sands, with c.33 Mmboe of 2C resources available at Kraken. Until drilling resumes, Kraken production will be subject to natural field decline.
--------------------
So most of the down time was when oil prices were at there low point of the year & full production has been restored going into rising oil prices.
LOTM
Continuing ......
From the Capricorn 2022 annual report published 27th April 2023
additional contingent consideration ('earnout consideration') dependent on oil prices from 2021 to the end of 2025 and minimum production levels being achieved, which at 2 November 2021 had a fair value of US$197.4m including an adjustment for expected credit losses.
The fair value of the earnout consideration fell by US$8.1m from 2 November 2021 to US$189.3m at 31 December 2021. The first annual payment of earnout consideration of US$75.8m due on 2021 production was received in 2022. With strong oil prices and production levels above forecast across the assets, the fair value of the remaining earnout consideration receivable increased by US$110.4m during 2022 to a closing fair value receivable of US$224.1m in the Balance Sheet as at 31 December 2022 (see note 3.5).
From Waldorf Production UK PLC (2022 Annual Report) published 1st June 2023
in the notes page 50
As part of the purchase of the producing assets of the subsidiary, Waldorf Real Estate Limited (formerly Capricorn North Sea Limited), the Company is due to pay additional payments to Capricorn Energy plc, based on the results of the fields. At the end of December 2022, this is estimated to be $134.4m relating to 2022, which is due to be settled in March 2023. There is an additional $101.0m which will be due from 2024 - 2026. During the year, the contingent consideration was revalued upwards by $91.2m mainly due to an increase in forward oil prices and a net increase in the total Catcher and Kraken reserves.
LOTM
I spent some time over the weekend, going through old announcements regarding the sale of the UK assets to Waldorf in 2021 & the future payments that Capricorn might get, especially with the current outlook for the oil price.
From Enquest announcement 24th May 2023
We have improved asset reliability and integrity across our operated assets, resulting in delivery of strong uptime across our portfolio, including production efficiency of c.89% at Magnus, c.94% at the Greater Kittiwake Area and at Kraken, where we continue to deliver top quartile FPSO performance.
Guidance unchanged
2023 average net Group production is expected to be between 42,000 Boepd and 46,000 Boepd, noting shutdowns and periods of single train operations planned at Magnus and Kraken, respectively, in the third quarter
Production details
Average daily production on a net working interest basis (Boepd)
1 Jan 2023 to 30 Apr 2023 1 Jan 2022 to 30 Apr 2022
UK Upstream
- Kraken 15,910 19,862 boepd
---------------------------------
So Kraken is due some downtime for maintenance during this quarter (3rd quarter 2023) hopefully more detail will be revealed with Enquest's half year report.
Based on the Enquest data, Waldorf's share of production for the 1st 4 months of 2023 for Kraken would be 6,657 boepd compared to 8,311 in 2022.
So total production for the 4 months - (120 days) was 798,885 out of the 3.002M needed to trigger the additional payments.
Putting Kraken on course to produce roughly 2.4M for the year before the loss for maintenance is included.
Getting current info on the Catcher area is sadly much harder. Production for 2022 seems to have averaged around 38,000 boepd according to the Harbour Energy website. 2 new wells were completed just before the end of 2022 so they should help to keep production levels up during the rest of this agreement period.
If we were to say field production during 2023 was to average 34,000 boepd allowing for declines etc, then Waldorf's 20% interest from Capricorn works out at 6,800 boepd (they acquired MOL's 20% interest in 2022 separately as well).
So 6,800 boepd would indicate production of over 2.4M barrels for 2023 from the Catcher area affects us.
Add the 2 together & we're looking at total production of 4.8M barrels.
Indicating that production will be roughly 1.8M barrels above the 2023 performance threshold of 3.002M To which Capricorn will therefore be entitled to 40% ie 0.72M barrels.
If I do a rough calculation for a comparison, 2022 total production was 5.82M less the 3.94M threshold gave an outperformance of 1.876M to which we were entitled to 50% at that point ie 0.938M barrels & that yielded a payment from Waldorf of $134.4M. The 2021 payment was $77M.
Average price of Brent oil in 2021 was $71, in 2022 it was $101 & so far it has averaged $80.12 in 2023 (hopefully that average is going to get pulled even higher during the next 4 months to possibly north of $83 per barre
Just bought 8,000 at 173.4108p trade not showing up yet.
Decided not to hold of any longer given the oil price is now at a 41 week high & I don't want to be on the wrong side if things pan out like they did yesterday from this time onwards. So banked a nice profit on yesterday's sell & got another 100 shares as well. Put another sell order in place.
I see a trade of 3.88M has just gone through !
LOTM
My goodness 5.185M traded in the auction at 172p - certainly never saw that coming, or the other significant numbers now going through around the 172p level.
Will need to be on the ball in the morning now to see what price it opens at and which direction it is headed. Will need to look out for holding announcements in the coming days now to see where the stock came from & went to.
LOTM
I have sold 7,900 at 181.7307p but the order is not showing up yet. (done at 15:37)
MM's seem short of stock today, Expecting a bit of a tree shake tomorrow to try & flush out some stock, so I'll be ready to try & take advantage of it if I can.
LOTM
Here's another thought.........
I'm not sure who is lending (selling there voting rights to both Goldman Sachs & Bank of America) but given the numbers involved its certainly more than 1 party that's doing so and if your not going to be using the voting rights for a purpose then when pay for the right to do so ?
LOTM
Very Interesting, Bank of America increased there holding yesterday (when the LSE market was closed).
I have been closely watching all of these holding announcements & also the large shareholder data on the company website.
On 31st July there were 10 holding above 3% listed for a total of 94.826M shares or 66.21% of the company.
By the 11th August (latest data on the company website) that had increased to 94.905M or 66.43% (Newtyn had disposed of 1.13M shares during that time & ABRDN disposed of just over 70K. Blackrock & Vanguard had both increased there's by tiny amounts (under 10K). Goldman Sacks had increased by 1.267M
Since then the holdings announcements tell us, Madison has disposed of 2.635M shares, Goldman Sachs has increased its holding by a further 3.046M shares & Bank of America (Merrill Lynch) has acquired voting rights over 14.321M shares.
Which means the 11 largest holdings now account for 76.8% of the company's shares.
There is clearly something going on & they are doing there damdest to shake weak holders into parting with there shares so that they can accumulate them on the cheap.
LOTM
Mr.kioto,
The half year report is due 14th Sept.
Sadly there is no cost savings going to show up in the numbers this year. The $35M is being saved from 2024 onwards, in the meantime the money that would have been spent mainly on salaries of managers etc is required to pay there severance pay instead (160 UK staff down to 40) etc.
They should also be giving us an update on how all the development & exploration drilling in Egypt has gone so far this year, along with revised production forecasts for the rest of 2023 as some of those new wells come online. Hopefully they are on target to raise production by at least the 10% they were looking for, given the fact the early new well results were ahead of the pre-drill expectations.
We should also get to see how far behind we are in receiving the revenue from Egypt, that needs to stabilise or reduce from before.
They should also be in a better position to give guidance on when the $100M is going to be paid out etc.
The share price is being controlled by the institutions at the moment, there is clearly something going on with these constant changes in holding notices, which is highly unusual in itself. Its just that we don't know what it is !
There is a capital markets day planned for Q4, so that may be the catalyst that helps the share price.
LOTM
I get most of your points. But the bottom line seems that after reading the provided docs that you banking on the current downsizing / rightsizing (cutting the fat) and focus on operation
excellence, in order to push the equation Rev - Cost = P/L ?
From my side have not seen any recent financials to tell us if the plan is working or not. And still
waiting for the stock price to take off. I think we have an earnings / financial call soon?
I tried to sell half my holding the other day when the price got to 180p, but it went into auction as I was trying to do so & was never that price again. Which was pretty annoying.
Anyway given the current price, I've sold something I wasn't intending to in the short term & just bought another 5,900 shares at 166.87
A lot more normal trades going through so far today & very little bot action. I wonder what the next holding announcement will reveal ? & what the next update on the major shareholding on the website will show as well.
LOTM
Mr.kioto
The share buy-back is not complete, they have only used up about $16M (£11.95M) of it. There has been no indication as to why it suddenly stopped on 4th August.
So over 4.5M more shares should be acquired when it starts up.
If you look in detail at all these holding notices, you'll see that slowly but surely Goldman Sachs are increasing there voting interest in the company. they seem to be carrying out quite a complex operation. Sometimes they are selling stock yet not losing the voting rights then they re-acquire the stock again.
So it could well be them that is causing the price to move so much at the moment as they try to force the weak holders to part with there stock.
I'll be quite happy if they pay out the $100M & do another share consolidation at the same time.
People are simply not seeing the long term value here.
What there doing is going to totally transform the company going forward. It will become a massive cash-cow for those left holding the stock next year.
LOTM
Anyone else worried about the down trending in stock price? It appears that the
buyback did not have an impact on shareprice??? If we do another dividend and then
consolidation, I suppose we will still be near the current price, but with less shares.
Hope we are on track to meet the criteria.
The only way I see a share price increase, is if we get sold.
Well I split my order into 2 parts 2250 & 2750 both got filled while I was out so I've now got 15,000 shares again.
Lets see what the next couple of days have in store & if this is going to bounce or not. GLA
LOTM
Well when all said & done I've managed to buy back 10K shares so far, at an average all in cost of £1.753
I've 1 order still outstanding for another 5K that wasn't triggered yesterday in the £1.6's. I may adjust the price depending on what happens 1st thing this morning. As I'm going to be out for a few hours today.
Hopefully no-one got caught in that bear trap.
LOTM
Yep,
Knew it was a trap !
I ended up removing my 1st limit order & buying some stock back given the 2 previous O buys. As soon as my trade goes through bang, a whole load of trades go through & then the price drops.
Note it didn't happen when those 2 other O buys went through only mine !
Oh well I've 2 other limit orders still in place at lower prices, so lets see what fun & games they have in store for this afternoon. Technically that will be another profit banked given I sold those 5K at £1.82 odd yesterday & bought them back for around £1.79 including all costs.
LOTM
Ok sold over half the BBY shares that I'm going to be selling at a nice profit, the other half are on a separate limit order.
Been watching CNE in the meantime & I hope I'm wrong but this feels like a buyer's trap right now, as if they are tempting you to buy in at this price & are then going to take it lower.
LOTM
So I've held off from buying, I've put my first limit order in place for 5K in mid £1.7's the next is going in very low £1.7's & I'll take it from there and see what feels right.
LOTM
Is this another tree shake on its way ?
What's going to be a good price to buy at if it is, is the next question ...........
LOTM
Goldman Sachs reporting around 2 days behind everyone else just clouds the picture even more.
They dumped 9% on friday & then got it back on Monday !
So that now doesn't tie in with BOA (Bank of America) Merrill stake.
It's currently indicating that both Goldman & BOA have acquired voting rights to significant amount's of stock at roughly the same time.
So which 2 or more of the other 8 top 10 holders has sold there voting rights for cash ?
LOTM
Oh and Merrill Lynch are the ones meant to be carrying out the buy-back program.
So I presume while there tied up in all of this active in one form or another, there would be a conflict of interest taking place if they were to be doing the buy-back at the same time.
So until the buy-back announcements start to re-appear, I'm going to assume something is still a foot.............
LOTM
Confession time .....
The 2 sells for 9.9K & 9K this afternoon were mine.
I wasn't intending selling & certainly not at that price.
However the sheer drop on BBY at lunchtime made it impossible for me not to go there. Just failed to bank a nice profit at the close, will likely bank it early tomorrow morning & then start to get the cash back into CNE.
LOTM