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Hi Ant1986, I think we are wide open for a bid will $80 Brent, especially is we retain our N Sea assets. I think HBR would leap at +20% of their own Catcher - for free. I think timing is key here, do they confuse the timing of India's settlement or the vote process or North Sea asset sale Class 1? With Oil & gas prices growing North, deal does not seem so great. GLA.
Indeed. The UK asset disposals still need the shareholder vote due to it being Class 1 transaction. They announced this disposal more than six months ago (9 MAR) and have not even yet published the associated circular and announced the General Meeting date for the vote. This delay is highly unusual and suggests to me (as a former M&A banker myself) that something is amiss. Perhaps Waldorf don't have the funds. Or the big IIs are pushing back. Or the board have woken up and are now smelling the coffee............
Can cairn get out of the North Sea transaction ? If so any penalty clauses. Whens the vote.
Sorry for queries but posters seem very knowledgeable
No idea when the vote is - nothing has been announced yet. Re: penalty clauses, the detail announced to date did not specify. If there is a penalty clause, it's likely immaterial.
AA2020 thanks for post it crossed with mine part answering. Does feel mad to proceed . My crude maths based on 17-19 k barrels per day $24 cost all figures from interims and $75 oil make not shy of €1m a day to bottom line. Consensus must be we don't proceed ?
Or they could be renegotiating the price and earn out terms. Who knows.
The CFO mentioned on the call that Waldorfs backers and third parties had last minute changes to funding of the transaction etc. So that was the reason for the delay. That process is supposed to finish by Q4.
The whole reason CNE wanted to sell North sea assets was to bulk up cash position for another acquisition IMO. And this was decided before they could have imagined that India is going to change the law and refund the principal amount. Now that there would be $350mn post dividend and buyback retained why should the sale of k+c assets proceed. These assets had very high capex outlay initially. They should just retain these assets and run them as hbr and enq chose to.
You can see how valuable these assets are - the asset cash flow has already paid the consideration amount that the buyer initially would have paid. Now the buyer will only have to worry about the capex if any and oil price related contingent payments essentially getting the assets for free. If these assets even hold production constant the next couple of years, at $75/bbl the cash inflow will be lot higher with minimal capex imo.
Seav the concensus seems to be don't proceed with the North Sea transaction. I cannot think why they would.
They have mentioned on the results call that they will be going ahead with the sale. What consensus? PIs on a BB have no consensus value. Almost everyone on this BB was against the EGY acquisition but still it got voted through almost 100%. Let's see if it makes any difference to the vote count on this transaction.
Meanwhile we still wait for the tax return rules to be finalized and published so CNE can get the ball rolling regarding getting the refund. Been 3 weeks already since the results call. Let's see if it's out this week given recent media reports saying it should be out in days.
There are Numerous articles online saying the rules will be finalised in the coming days . What we do know is the draft rules were back in on the 4th Sep with feedback submitted . Cairn made numerous statements on the 7th saying a deal was imminent. The news is coming no doubt about it