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Hi all,
as we sit here awaiting news lets look at the situation both for us and global sentiments to investing post covid when a LOT of long term investors got hijacked and saw years of loyalty, dreams and plans destroyed.
we are a company with a 5p SP who have £2.5M in the bank and no mining production. what we have is potential and maybe a plan. However this plan is not within our gift and outwith our control. at the moment.
we have all had a guess at what our share price might be short , mid and longer term.
now, potentially in a few short days, weeks....tomorrow. we may well be a company with over £80M in the bank and a realistic plan for mining production with both a fantastic annual margin and owners of the BEST grade of mineral sands globally. fortunately, luckily and timing wise magical. Mineral sands resource is now a BIG deal in the world of resource. its a very hot commodity thanks to east V west resource battle. there is no rhyme or reason to it but if this is one of their battlegrounds we have been very lucky indeed.
so back to my point......5p SP in a company that has potential and £2.5M VERSUS a company that has all of the above, plus a world renowned partner, a hot commodity, geopolitical games, a government on board and proven quality product. my opinion is when it drops we are going to go to 25p -35p, we will see buying and selling in the millions daily and when we start to offtake the LTH will be rewarded with well over £1 per share.
all of this is caveated because who knows what the market will like or think. there are floundering companies that have huge MCap for no discernible reason and great companies that are peanuts.
the one thing i believe that will make us fly over the next 3 years is this fact.....................WE HAVE NO DEBT. the massive corporate investors hate deabt as they have no control over terms or hedging..........DYOR
the best companies HAVE NO DEBT...
sorry all, i got there eventually, have a good one
Ando
Never mind Sebo. He said svml is a better opportunity at £149m market cap. Lol .. you’d have to see half a billion plus market cap to get the minimum gains you’ll see from here in coming months.. can’t see that happening on an illiquid share like that any time soon
Crucial takeaway - there is plenty of cash in the bank & there is no imminent dilution.
All about timing with these high volatility shares and factoring in where they are in their life cycle (eg Lassonde Curve). Getting in ahead of financing is usually a good point, and I note the chart is also looking very constructive/expectant. Therefore, I think this could start to make its next move up in the run up to this financing news. It doesn't have a huge free float and lots of shares are in sticky hands!
So a good time to be in CMET me thinks but let's see how it all transpires. GLA
My target is clearly much higher than yours. Nevermind, the newbies will happily buy your cheap shares at 20p. Then you can watch the SP rise to £1+ -- what fun, non? Sour grapes! Timing is everything!
LW, very true most of these guys will most likely be gone by 15p if not earlier - and good luck to them they are now in at very low levels. I also have my exit levels and I can tell you I won't be waiting for 40p! Unless it's on a spike of course...
Let's be honest, how many of us are going to hang around that long anyway, or even to production? How many here will see this through to 40p, never mind £1 plus!
I disagree with the wild statement. £100M for a project of this scale is nothing. Even at 'only' 50%, it isn't pie in the sky to imagine a value of £1B one day.
LW, I always welcome your considered opinion, what some of the new investors fail to understand is that when others have more 'conservative', or what I like to term realistic, opinions it is because we've been here for years and been through every permutation possible with this outfit.
The other thing that has substantially changed since the MF days is that he led us to believe that financing, secured through an off-take, would reap its benefits from securing the product (essentially how CMET would pay-off the off-take, that, hinted-at, model is off the table with us now giving up half the current and all future potential of the product (that's fine it's another model, probably more realistic) but with that in mind you have to now reexamine all the investment/ROI models recognising that only 50% of the benefits will now flow to CMET shareholders.
As I said not a bad thing - it moves the project forward and it's not a zero/negative return which is what some of us were staring into at the height of the SL corruption shenanigans.
That has to colour any shareholders view of the project and honestly some of the utter wild valuations being flung around are simply silly, AT LEAST as things stand.
I hope so Sebo, I do think we will get there I am just a bit more pessimistic with timescales after the interview. But more confident Greg has the deal in hand.
I don't think they they can start the drilling until they have the finalised the deal. I would imagine the JV will also cover the costs of drilling. Also, if the deal falls through, then it will impact on CMET's own plans and deployment of cash.
Re 15 May, I don't think anyone in his position can say the deal will definitely be done by X or Y date, because that is out of his hands and he can't guarantee anything. However, he opened the interview with 15 May as the date that the parties have to conclude the deal, and then he mentioned "advanced" stage with Sheffield. Therefore, overall I got the impression that 15 May is still the date, but whether it completes by then or takes a short while longer remains to be seen.
I didn't get the impression it will be LB, and remain of the view that if they were going to do the deal, they would have done so by now, as he confirmed they had completed their DD a long time ago. All imo and GLA
I don’t think you can read too much into what Greg said about the 15th deadline whether the deal will be done by then or not and you cant blame long term holders being sceptical cmet has a long history of missing dates. One thing is for sure the share price will take a hammering if nothing is announce by then
I now think the original delay in financing was to allow Sheffield to do DD and allow them on board in some sort of capacity and they will be included in the financing deal in some capacity.
The delay into production 2026 is another missed target what’s changed, is it because cmet is going away from the idea of using the port, why have your facilities there if your not going to use it!
And just get the drilling under way if we have the finance
Listened to it again. It sounds like 15 May is still very much on, in that he mentioned getting to "advanced negotiations" with Sheffield over documents. I don't think he was suggesting it will take longer than that, but of course he can't rule that out because of the nature of these things.
The production timescale has slipped though - MF would often tell us it was 6 months and made it sound as if the funding was effectively the FID. Did he get his timescales muddled up in this interview?
Enough in that interview for me to start adding here, as I do think they will get the JV over the line, and I think it will be Sheffield that will win the race. All imo and GLA
Straightforward Path to Production
The Eastern Minerals project will utilise simple, well-established mining and processing methods, including excavator mining, gravity concentration, and magnetic separation. No new technology or complex processing is required. Capital Metals is targeting an initial production of 550,000 tonnes per annum of heavy mineral concentrate, which will be expandable over time.
From a permitting perspective, the Environmental Impact Assessment has already been approved and no major obstacles are expected in obtaining the remaining necessary permits and licenses. Martyr stated they are "very confident" in securing the required regulatory approvals over the next three months.
The mine and processing plant construction is expected to take approximately 12 months after the Final Investment Decision. If all goes to plan, this positions Capital Metals to commence production in early 2025.
https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/capital-metals-poised-to-bring-sri-lankan-mineral-sands-project-into-production
I don't think that we'll be waiting a couple years to 10 bag. Once licenses, expanded resources and funding in place - we will already be there. Could be less than 6 months away. There are always super conservative types on these boards who (trading) go in and out faster than a porn star. I expect to see life changing returns for many people invested at this stage.
@Parker - agreed.
While it was a good interview I think Greg was softening the investors up for nothing to be announced for a couple of weeks. I'd love to be proved wrong but anything before the 15th is a bonus, but it does sound as if he has it in hand.
The disappointment from the interview is the timescales, production in Q1 of 2026, so almost 2 years from now was longer than I was hoping for.
I'm sure we are going to see ups and downs in the SP until then, surges at JV announcement/licence confirmation/resource increase followed by the herd arriving and regular sell offs after.
However, if we are all chasing the 10 bagger from these levels, it looks like we are going to have to sit tight for a couple of years and hope nothing material changes in Sri Lanka politically and we can carry on as planned.
Still huge credit to Greg though for all the work he has done to get us to this stage. More patience required though to see this through.
GLA.
Finally finished listening and think great interview, by sounds of it all points to LB -
- equity funding only (which is exciting to hear from a project perspective) and as mentioned earlier don’t think SR can equity fund this with their cash flow
- states SR will be there anyway (so they will likely be happy) and also their thunderbird mineral sands project sounds similar funding deal with Yansteel (who equity funded most of it I believe)
- states working through the paperwork and being a joint venture agreement should make final Run throughs/ checks quicker so hopeful of the before mid May announcement.
Roll on the next few days!
Also side note echo the message that this board has been good conversation and people making fair points.. when the news hits will no doubt attract the usual types so hopefully we don’t lose the excellent discussions (at least we know long term where the company can go!)
All the best.
The funding will unlock a minimum 10 bagger from these levels. No way SR would put there money in if they didn't believe in the project. I can't believe we can still buy at these levels.
Working my way through interview slowly (and re listening again to bits!) so apologies only 6 mins or so in but does feel like he let slip LB group coming in then rewords to if they do.. all very exciting and will continue my listening!
16m market cap lads. there’s drillers with no possible funding on the horizon with higher caps than this
Svml is the most illiquid shard i’ve ever seen.
I compare this in a sense to when KOD got their 100m funding for 50% JV. It shot up fast from 30m.. went well over 100m at one point, and is still sat at 89m and it’s similar construction length etc.. maybe longer
Why wouldn't there be a decent rerate to £80M? I've seen it happen before.
Amazing interview for better context.
I love this point - drilling mostly averaging undertaken to 3m due to hitting the water table in places. We know in some areas the HMC is down to 14m. More exploration capable now due to more money available.