Member Info for Onetimepost

Ofcourse a run like that would be incredible but would need some more news to get us there in my own view.. however I think realistically when you look at Hemo and IMM of late they spiked to around 75-100m market cap and I’d say aren’t too dissimilar positions on the curve (if anything geni further ahead with commercialisation) so is entirely possible to be around the 30-50m plus market cap in short order (would then Hope with revenue and fda continues uowards ofcourse!)

Great news and seems like starting to fall into place now. As others have noted thermo fisher is a huge derisk here and wouldn’t sign a deal if they hadn’t seen the fda submission data, done commercial research in adoption and revenue potential.

The big thing here though for me is the quant studio platform access.. this is installed everywhere (pretty sure it was a massive covid rollout) which then means genincode can come along with the inscore and be used straight away - gamechanger!

Was almost expecting the valuation of wcap not to jump up immediately .. biggest sign was waiting for personally was consolidation at levels for weshop which seem to be around the circa 150 mark (which is great) as should then provide the platform for wcap to build up to nav discount of 20-40% .. timeline wise no idea and with seller etc but so long as weshop stays around level or increases then will get there!

Again those lock up ones are related to the we shares available to consumers and so are the cat b shares.. cat a 800k circa are direct and so could be sold if they wished ..

Think bit of uncertainty on lock in but pretty sure people are confusing the “weshares” shoppers will get as those are locked in for 12 months.. WCAP are via direct listing so will be able to sell if they choose (but I don’t see them doing that at the moment)

Guessing price will be waiting for market open proper on Nasdaq to see what share price does then move accordingly.

Also if this does come off would have to thank wadogara for flagging!

Interesting to hear your guys calculations for Eme? Or even Conrad… do you think they are getting a good deal? 75 m pounds market cap and according to some they are only getting 16 million and yet their share price has risen..must be a lot of unsavvy investors

I think most people would have expected a drop today .. wasn’t exactly a prophecy.

Again this is equity financing .. the initial funding is upfront but they will pay 320m of development costs.. they are paying it for Conrad so yes that’s exactly what they will do.. current legal situation (in dispute ofcourse) is eme own 8.5%.

As a roofer I’m presuming let’s use a house analogy.. you own the land but can’t pay for the house to be built.. but along come Taylor wimpey who say we will give you 25k upfront and we will also build the house for 250k you for 75% of it.. equity wise when that house is built amid market value is 400k you then own 25% of it.. so its not “worthless” if this request from Conrad hadn’t come in then the whole board would be completely different mood (and I’m guessing your p crystal ball would be shouting up!) get everyone has different views which is good but just coming on shouting in right doesn’t add anything

I think some people who seem to know everythint need to educate themselves on secured debt vs equity value…. The convertible note is secured by the Mako stake. If Mako is worth 17m (which Conrad's farmout has proved). So even if debt at 10m, there’s still 7m NET “equity” value which isn’t worthless..then if they continue with their share in project you would expect this to increase further.. as I’ve said before these things aren’t guaranteed but at least give a reality of value (it’s how the farm in partner has valued the asset!)

Coro wanted out as they were moving into renewables as a strategy.. eme very different in sense they don’t want out and are willing to dig in heels on their claim

Reading both rns properly and interesting on the language.. Conrad saying “deemed” which is very passive and then claiming (but not substantiated) versus EME which strongly pushes back and relates to JOA etc as basis for this (has Conrad violated the JOA also here?)

Also reads like EME are confident and in control and not panicking, they know their rights, they know can effectively block the process and willing to fight legally however also are open to fair settlement.

Long stop date is 9 months away but Conrad have also mentioned first tranche in q1 2026 conditional on meeting conditions :

I would guess these are all JOA partners consent, regulatory approval and clean title/no legal dispute. So basically they have 3 months in order to achieve their first milestone payment in my view which puts pressure on Conrad so can see this moving swiftly over next few weeks if not sooner

320m fully funded to production (with an offtake agreement in place) doesn’t sound poor figures at all.. eme are still a partner to 8.5% currently despite Conrad’s comments as it’s in dispute so will either be as settlement out (10-20m payment potentially as fair value) or they retract it.. won’t be great initially as will be huge sell off which is normal but this will have to be sorted for it to be approved by regulator over next 9 months

Looks like eme share worth around 15-20m to me.. plus key is regulator still to approve etc so long way to go on this..

If Conrad don’t announce something today I’d say Eme has caught them out with going public on this and if anything could be up against it with pressure from farm in partner to sort this.

For those asking if deal can go ahead without Eme and sort it later my understanding is no.

Under the joa material changes will require all parties so Eme will have to sign off, the Indonesia regulator will require clean sign off to approve and even if they could (which they can’t) the tag along right mean Eme would be entitled to same terms as Conrad so not possible.

Way I see it will be either (1) Conrad retracts their request eme will keep share (2) tag along rights will be exercised (3) eme share is bought out.

Any cash to eme would come straight from farm out partner direct. So in my view oddly it’s Conrad need eme at the moment rather than other way round.

You’re probably right EME won’t be able to fund anything (nor probably was their plan) and may well be frustrating the process.. but again legally they can’t just be ousted and so will either have to be a settlement or they get the same terms as Conrad farm out..

Get your point regarding industry norms and not priced on revenues however (again if it where me) this now isn’t standard farmmout and is now a dispute which changes it..

The gas agreement has the mechanism on Brent linked which then is contractually defined vs hypothetical so EME could argue for compensation on this value (or I would).

Not saying will get it but with time pressure on Conrad etc can put pressure on. If took 8.5 boe then hypothetically Eme stake then becomes 125million (but if npv it at say 10 % the npv goes to around 240million) which is why during settlement or dispute leverage here I’d be including and why it matters..

IF there is settlement and EME as stated want fair value, then (if it were me in the negotiation) then you will need to add in fair value for the gas contract to 2037 revenues also so could be significantly more than people think of EME can negotiate their position well and follow through .. some of the posters seem to think that as they are junior they can be easily removed where in effect the protections under the agreements actually are weighed toward minority partners. Of course nothing is a slam dunk but got to be in it to win it .

Of course could be longer which again builds EME position of strength even further.. unsure on where the arbitration seat is in the contract so 3-6 months as a minimum anyway.

Whole move from Conrad just seems rogue though, as a future partner company sure you would look twice in any future partnership with them, plus the fact Eme have called it out swipes their standing leg.. pretty sure if Eme came out tomorrow saying placing for 789 in return for a 20-30 min pay back would be gobbled up!

Like folk say though need to be in it to win it and whilst legals are weighted heavily in Eme favour nothing is ever easy on the markets!

Looks to me like Conrad is trying to take emes stake for the 789k debt in hostile way - under JOA Eme has right to sell on same terms so sounds like Conrad know how much this is worth and trying to keep that value for themselves (ie of value to Eme is 20-25 million they are trying to say the debt above void it then they pocket the value.. massive wealth shift there!)

Also sounds extremely desperate timing as it’s a now or never to get that share with farmout about to close. AND more importantly to me anyway, shows the scale of the deal!

I think actually quite bullish though if look at it (drop was expected!)

- can’t get rid of Eme when in a dispute resolution

- If look at Coro stuff they reached a settlement - can’t treat partners differently under the JoA

- This seems in bad faith from Conrad which typically is frowned upon in courts

- The deal is imminent.. Conrad will want a fast resolution

- As the farm in partner will want to press ahead so their is time bound here.

So for me Conrad wouldn’t attempt this if it wasn’t worth something material, Conrad will have to settle with Eme or farmout won’t close and arbitration will frustrate that process massively.

Plus with Eme wanting fair value so could be the full payout for their share and Conrad isn’t the driver here the farmout partner is and I would guess they won’t want to wait 3-6 months through arbitration!

Hopefully it’s a hold firm and win! All the best!

Yeh considering a few others had premium placements in recent months and share prices have followed suit quickly.. potentially one of those under the radar and gets picked up in the next few hours ..

Unsure of the history on this one but with current market cap and the premium issue price of shares nominal value does sounds pretty good?