Adam Davidson, CEO of Trident Royalties, discusses offtake milestones and catalysts to boost FY24. Watch the video here.
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Borgy mentioned a couple of weeks ago that we have entered the handle stage of a cup and handle chart formation. The sale announcement may well have limited the extent of the SP reduction expected by the c&h formation but seeing the shares so oversold right now are we likely to see a breakout to the 139 target price this week?
There will be 28 residential schools and 5 other children's services centres left, not including foster services. Lots of property left in the company with sizeable value. Worth bearing in mind that although there were over 100 adult units sold, they are all quite small compared to the school bed numbers, and if you consider the average fee income for housing an adult is circa £80k per year compared to the schools being approx £200k per year the profit potential nownhencompany is debt free, is huge.
Does any one know how many properties we will still have left after selling the adult business. It seems as though we are getting rid of £300 Million of property and the rest of the cash for the business. Which would indicate the share price sliding. I will be selling out on Monday. Will buy back once it has settled. Need to see some numbers really and was expecting more cash for the business and property portfolio. Oh well. Have a good weekend.
Cambian Group PLC (LON:CMBN) had its price objective boosted by analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. from GBX 119 ($1.51) to GBX 139 ($1.77) in a report issued on Tuesday. The firm presently has a “neutral” rating on the stock. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s price objective would indicate a potential upside of 8.38% from the stock’s previous close.
from Shares Mag in this mornings issue (sometimes the kiss of death I know) with a solid buy recommendation. TP
LondonDan Yes I have reservations and I have said my piece which I stand by, so I'll not trouble you all from now on. Good luck!
Thanks Borgy, useful insights as always! I always look forward to reading your analysis.. Regarding CMBN and the £40m distribution, I reckon it's more of a gesture to existing shareholders many of whom were staff who have lost a lot in value since the original float. It is true that the adult care side was running at a profit but it was also managed in quite a reactive/risky way. This management is moving with the sale. The children's services/education side is also very profitable and seeing sizeable growth. It's worth noting that the large losses last year were due to impairment on assets and debt costs, neither of which should be experienced from now on. That's why I bought in just under 60p, as it was clear that big profits were on their way. The future is bright!
Great post Londondan, I fully agree with every word in that post, well said there mate.
Patchy, I think you have a number of good points there and at least one which misses the mark. On one hand, you’re correct that the AS business was more profitable and therefore it’s a big decision to let it go. However they’ve sold it at a very high multiple, even by sector standards. There’s a lot of change/M&A going on in the sector at present, so they’ve managed to get rid of it at the perfect time, for a cracking price. I’d say UHS has overpaid significantly for it actually, but as a CMBN shareholder I can hardly complain! That said, the business is now going to be significantly smaller, for sure. Being debt free with a mostly-freehold property portfolio goes a long, long way in this sector so they’re definitely in a good spot. If some of the old habits of the BOD come back – taking on way more debt, paying over the odds to acquire competitors etc. – then I’ll start to reduce my holding and take my profits. I’ll be watching closely from here and won’t be afraid to sell if I think they’re wasting the good position which they currently find themselves in. I don’t agree with your reading of ‘the dividend’ however, as it isn’t a proper dividend at all. This is some of the proceeds of the AS business sale being passed back to shareholders. We’ll have to wait and see what happens with the ‘proper’ dividends when they resume next year. I’d probably stay out of CMBN if I were you to be honest, as 100% of your posts on LSE to date have been expressing some level of scepticism towards this share – there’s obviously something there which you’re fundamentally not comfortable with.
Hi everyone. At the risk of sounding 'trollish' isnt it a little odd that the part of the business that is being sold is the one that garners the larger share of the company profits? The Children's services division is less than half as profitable as the Adult Services (If the numbers are to be believed) and despite claims that the area shows more opportunity Cambian have been targeting it for a few years now to what end? They've sold a good part of the business to clear the debt - admirable - but is what they are left with good going forward? I'll continue to watch this one, in the meantime i the share dividend is 20p a share that effectively means the market has down-rated the SP? Or is that too simple? I reckon the family silver's been sold...
Sounds worth the wait. TP
Yep, £40m between 184m shares
does that equate to 0.21 per share or are my maths wrong? TP
Well I got CTAG wrong didn't I! Can you chaps provide any hint with regard to how that rather large increase could've been spotted as with a RSI of below 30, and BB,s in continued decline the charts (in my view) suggested an ongoing fall, and not the sizeable increase that was seen yesterday. Any tips greatly appreciated.... Nick
yes mate, just scares me ctag where do you see that going to now there is talk of 14p??
I have bought back in yes at 140p. Did u see CTAG today?
I have bought back in yes at 140p. Did u see CTAG today?
Did you buy back in borg?? yes you was spot on mate regarding sp
JUST NOTICED THIS ON CAMBIANS WEBSITE Return of capital to shareholders • Cambian intends to return £40 million of the Disposal Consideration to shareholders following completion, subject to: ‒ Creation of sufficient distributable reserves ‒ Final Board approval ‒ Shareholder approval1 • Board expects to announce the Return of Capital during H1 2017 • Further detail will be provided in due course Dividend policy • Board intends to resume a progressive dividend policy, with the first payment expected to be the interim dividend for first six months of 2017 LOOKS VERY NICE TO ME....... http://www.cambiangroup.com/portals/0/investorrelations/d624a73b-fbf2-4107-87cd-c66a254aa32c.pdf
my post on 8/11 .."It is comfortable ride on the T line. short of any positive news I see the next resistance level at 140 followed by 166." lo and behold we are at 140p ....
It's a bit disappointing that it hasn't held around the 150p mark which it hit at the open, but to be honest I'm less concerned about that. The business will be left in a really strong position once this completes, which is what is more important. Wiping out that debt is a really big step.
Slightly disappointed in mkt reaction TBH. The capital return to shareholders is a bonus. TP
Completely agree. This is great news for long-term holders - 'repay its existing indebtedness in full', with further cash being returned to shareholders. This leaves us in such a great position. As tempting as it is to take some profits here, I think I'll continue to hold. Incidentally, I picked UHS/Cygnet as one of my two bets for the eventual buyer in a post here back on November 4th. Good to see that prediction coming true! ;-)
Cambian To Sell Adult Services Unit For GBP377 Million LONDON (Alliance News) - Cambian Group PLC on Monday tabled plans to sell its Adult Services unit to US healthcare group Universal Health Services Inc for GBP377.0 million, which it said will enable it to focus on its Children's Services operations. The health services company said the Adult Services division generated revenue of GBP129.5 million for financial year 2015 and adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of GBP24.1 million. For the group as a whole, Cambian generated GBP290.1 million revenue from the year and adjusted Ebita of GBP42.5 million. Cambian said the sale of the business to Cygnet Health Care Ltd, a subsidiary of Universal Health, will allow it to focus on "being a market leading provider" of children's services, where it sees "significant opportunities" for growth and development. The majority of the disposal proceeds will be used to repay its existing indebtedness in full and, subject to certain conditions, to return GBP40.0 million to its shareholders. The deal is expected to complete by the end of December and is subject to shareholder approval. A date for the general meeting has not yet been set. "We recently took the strategic decision to develop our Children's Services business around a differentiated integrated recovery model incorporating care, education and therapy for children with the highest needs," said Chief Executive Saleem Asaria. "The proposed disposal will enable us to focus fully on the development of the business and realise its potential as one of the UK's leading specialist providers," Asaria added. I like the bit where it says 40million to its shareholders .....!
Morning all. Great start to the week. Buckle up, let`s see where this news takes us. TP