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Not much being said on here so I thought i would add a piece on what i have been working on last week. for the Chartists out there - the McGuinley Dynamic. I have been testing it recently and its proving to be a good indicator for buying and holding (and ultimately selling)....The McGinley Dynamic looks like a moving average line yet it is a smoothing mechanism for prices that turns out to track far better than any moving average. It greatly avoids whipsaws because the Dynamic Line automatically follows prices in any market fast or slow, it's like a steering mechanism that stays aligned to prices when markets speed up or slows down. I backed tested it on a stock i frequently invest in and out of Glencore .. https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/m4BMReK9/ Buy when oversold and touching the McGinely dynamic on an uptrending stock and you''re laughing .. ask yourself the question .. why bother trading and stressing when u can simply buy according to this indicator and hold ... in between all the gyrations and swings ... so long as its above the McGuinley stay long .... just thought i would share this new tool. You would need a good charting system as not all free charts have access to the McGuinley Borgy
So that's a positive move then - they clearly see more growth. My understanding is that they will be entertaining some of the larger investors over the next few weeks so watch this space!
Crikey, apologies, it does indeed! Like you, I had assumed that it was him selling and just skim-read the RNS. You're quite right.
Doesn't the RNS suggest that he has added 5m?
I noticed a couple of huge sales and figures it was him, but there was no RNS to figures it wasn't.... Glad I held on given today's rally.
That explains some of the massive sells going through in recent days. Richard Griffiths dumping some of his holding, at what must be a phenomenal profit!
Totally agree - the BOD have been given another chance - let's hope they act responsibly and don't squander this great opportunity! Need to understand the financials on the remaining business (post sale) but I'm sure it's worth more than the existing market cap.
Agreed Nick. For me it comes down to whether or not the BOD can now be trusted to spend wisely and execute a sensible growth strategy from here. I was extremely confident that this share was wildly oversold at the time of the second profit warning (which I believe occurred 1 year ago tomorrow...) and I've booked some great gains as a result of buying in at that point. Now it's back towards fair value, we need to evaluate whether or not they can be trusted not to fall in to the same patterns that got them in such a mess in the first place. I'm less sure today at 130p than I was 12 months ago, when I knew the share was worth more than 50p/60p.
Likewise - being in the top 5 fallers in the FTsE All share two days in a row isn't good. But what has changed? We are still debt free and they still state that there will be a progressive ongoing dividend policy after the special dividend. Children's services is an area of real growth and despite a couple of wobbles recently, the education side is atill very profitable. I still see this having a lot of growth potential but we may just need to wait until H1. Nick
I'll confess to being a wee bit nervous myself, given this week's activity. I've made phenomenal gains on this share already and need to start having a serious think about my exit strategy. I've taken some profits already and now need to figure out what I do with the rest of my (still fairly sizeable) holding. Some clarity around the special dividend would certainly make this decision easier!
Thanks Borgy. I can't get DEMA on the charts on my app and unfortunately I couldn't get your link to work, but useful to know that it suggests we would've already left the trade. I know the special divi I still requires approval at the AGM but surely it's as good as a certainty? I may just have to come out with the intention of buying in lower, as the trend does appear to be quite strong. Nick .
Thanks Borgy; insightful and helpful as ever. I'm pretty confused as well - decent dividend almost certainly on the way, yet we're seeing serious volume selling and 20p gone from the share price in recent days. It's almost like someone, somewhere knows something we don't. (He says, sounding mightily paranoid...)
I have recently tweaked my charts after a suggestion by a fellow trader over on the GLEN board who suggested in stead of using the EMA 8 and EMA 34 .... to use the DEMA which is basically the Double Exponential Moving Average. It seems to be quicker and more reliable... here is a snap shot of the two charts DEMA 8 / DEMA 34 https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/ZH342BTy/ EMA 8 / EMA 34 https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/EvOXkEtj/ Notice on the DEMA chart how we could have got out much earlier at around 151.... where is on the EMA we would still be in the trade (cross over just about to happen). chart doesnt look too got. still not o/sold ... so may fall further. I am puzzled at this because why would u sell and give up a 21.7p dividend.. are we missing something....
I'd be interested to hear Borgy's views as well. Another day of pretty chunky selling thus far.
Hi Borgy, What's your view of the chart? Dropped below 8, 20 and 34 EMA and now the shadow has pierced the lower Bollinger Band. Nick
We've been tracking down for a few days now; looks as though we could be back to 140p before too long. Caused at least partly by an absolutely gigantic sell this morning. Some profit taking is inevitable given the rise over the last 6 months or so, but it's surprising to see someone selling off that many shares before the special dividend is announced...
Thanks Borgy.... love a techy vid! Nick
for those interested in watching a good 1 hour tutorial on how long to stay in a trade or when to buy ... i came across this on youtube. really easy to understand .... i use the 8 EMA and in this video they refer to it as the T-Line. worth a watch if you have an hr to kill https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kNdSehp32-Y enjoy. based on this... the daily close on CMBN is above the 8EMA so we should stay in the trade although we are quite above the T Line and hence maybe wise to take the profits only .....
Nhmusician TradingView.com has a really good chart set up i am looking at Booho just now https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/7Yh5MNZT/ VWAP for intra days is a must... You cant trade with out it
Genty, remember the words of the wise - be greedy when others are fearful....
Pretty sure it'll be a mid year taxable dividend.
Gents, can anyone confirm if the special dividend is classed as a taxable dividend or classed as a capital repayment from the recent sale, and therefore may not be liable to tax? Thanks in advance.
Borgy, Would hold off with the BT looks like a big investigation going to happen, very likely another gapped down all over the news tonight. Cheers all the best
Thanks. Can't get VWAP on my charts but certainly looks a useful ratio.
Genty74 ... BT has gapped down too so watch that space too for a rebound. NHmusician ... Yes i do ... we dont want to clutter the charts so when i see the 8 EMA cross down under the 34 it raises an alarm bell and I will normally sell. I can always buy back in if it crosses above again. for swing trading it works and we also use the same set up for scalpiing intra day ... for those who have it for scalping only ... apply the VWAP (works only intraday) and if ever the sp falls below VWAP and the 8 then crosses the 34 Exponential and u also see the RSI coming out of oversold ...then its a strong buy signal.... we do it all the time on Glencore intraday as u dont have to pay stamp duty which eats into your intra day scalps.