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Started: Goolang, 16 Feb 2022 20:43
Last post: Goolang, 16 Feb 2022 20:43
Let us be honest, it has been a bad roller coaster like alot of AIM stocks for the last 5 years. For years it underperformed and made a couple of very poor acquisitions. Best be it gone.
Started: PharmaKarma, 8 Feb 2022 12:45
Last post: Jatw, 8 Feb 2022 21:10
The vote was passed.
It is now over to the regulators, but as there is no real change to the business (it is being bought by a fund rather than a competitor) this should be a formality hence they expect to complete the deal in Q2.
The sp now reflects an nterest rate until the deal is done. They probably need US, UK and EU competition authorities to approve the deal.
please can you explain if the votes were fully met and the final outcome as I I don't understand about certain pending conditions
Yes all will feel they have gained from the transaction and there is enough room for improvement for triton to justify not overpaying.
How long before there is a trade merger and then a relisting at a higher value?
Fair result all around I’d say.
Started: Jatw, 17 Jan 2022 08:47
Last post: Jatw, 7 Feb 2022 19:12
I think it will go through. Although it just depends on a few large SH.
The market has been steady at 910…..no one has pushed it higher and there has been no sign of a counter offer. Most of the recent buyers will take the certain cash return and reflect that many pharma have lost 20-30% recently.
On the other hand if elliot votes no, they are almost obliged to find another way of realising $ 2bn.
General meeting is tomorrow so not long to wait now.
Keeping us in the dark about voting intentions
Sounds like a plan for Elliott. In which case the sp will gradually rise towards 925 (stopping a little short for the time lag to settlement). Elliott will need to announce its acceptance a few days ahead of the voting then the deal will be in the bag but they may hope to create a little uncertainty to pick up more in the market before announcing.
They bought more yesterday, today’s 8.3 saw them go above 14%. Why would you buy at this level, vote against for the price to bomb. Simply kill it and buy up all you want at 700 if you really believe in the long term.
One of their core business areas is arbitrage and that is what they are playing out now knowing that they control the outcome.
Unless their plan is to ensure they are in a position to kill it and buy up the company post share price crash, the deal is done.
Started: Goolang, 9 Dec 2021 11:58
Last post: CrystalBallBroke, 13 Jan 2022 17:02
You are correct - I never wanted this share, as you said, got lumbered with it in the Quantum Pharma deal, and yes, i'm happy with the price I got, but, that's only because I had to pour more money into it to get my average down to a more sensible level. It never was worth and never did reach the £11+ level they claimed it was in the takeover.
To be honest I have no idea where Rigg, or the others are, and if I was to see his name or Quantum Pharma linked with a share I was interested in, i'd walk away.
Quantum was a good business, unfortunately as you said the BOD were inept and clueless.
Thx, good luck to you too, I am genuinely curious to see where this goes.
CrystalBall…glad you are out and hopefully up, at least for your peace of mind, you may find your sell price is bang on the money.
Have watched your posts with some interest over the years, I think you ended up here as a result of the Quantum acquisition? Please believe me….if you think the Clinigen management is useless the Quantum group were clueless! Just look at what they are all doing now…..I think I could write what they knew about pharma on the back of a postage stamp using a thick crayon!
In fairness to Rigg….he knew that and got a decent price at the time.
Good luck!
I sold at 906, and whilst most of my brain is saying good riddance, as I never wanted this share in the first place, there is a morbid curiosity to see what's going to happen.
I've seen prices rise over bids, and i've seen major shareholders hold out for better offers, and i've seen BOD's cave and take their pound of flesh and shaft investors, but this situation, apart from dragging on is very curious, i'm sure the offer looks fair to some here and on the board etc etc, and even to some of the major investors..... but here's the thing, does CLIN NEED to be taken over/bought.... I think the answer to this is no.
and whilst that questions answer remains no, then i think the leverage for accepting the offer is greatly reduced.
i'll keep dropping in and reading to see what changes, good luck all.
Ha, thanks jiddy.
Not doing doom and gloom at all. Know a lot of people who want this to happen and I hope for them it does. Just look at the 8.3’s though….this is moving away from being a done deal. Triton will not chase to the point there is a premium on 915. Couple of key players here, they may block the deal, hope they have a plan if/when they do.
"Word on the street" - a leg-end in your own mind PK!
Started: nextdeal, 5 Jan 2022 16:47
Last post: Jatw, 12 Jan 2022 08:28
Today’s trading update is unexpected given the meeting next week.
It does not say trading is poor take he deal…..it does provide cover for an improved offer.
Over to triton…..market still expects more.
No movement from triton….and the price is still well above the bid.
Squeaky bum time as SAF would say.
Doubt it would go down to 700….if the buyers at 900+ who suddenly see the value they couldn’t a few months ago you assume they would be buyers on any dip.
Lot of the longer holders have reduced their positions so may be happy to sit tight too having reduced their exposure.
Good luck!
As long term investor, with no need to sell,would be content for bid to fail and accept sp of 700 in the short term. Maybe i am on my own here.
Coming round to PKs view that the risk reward for PIs is to sell now.
While I think an improved offer is likely, the upside is limited to 10-30p from 920.
The downside is the bid goes through at 883 or fails in which case 700 looms again.
Started: Goolang, 19 Dec 2021 20:30
Last post: Goolang, 19 Dec 2021 20:30
??
Started: Goolang, 9 Dec 2021 15:37
Last post: dnalkr1k, 10 Dec 2021 20:59
Excellently thought through and probably right on the money.
If there were to be another offeror in the wings, one would expect him to declare fairly soon, hopefully with a knockout counter offer. At least Triton is unable currently to steal a march with the sp so far above the value of its offer.
A takeout price would probably need to be north of 950p, without any unimpressive referencing to the pending dividend, which came across rather as an apology for the meagre price ... didn't work.
Yes! They will look to group with other major holders and say they will reject unless a higher offer. The bulk of their holding has an average price down in the low 6’s. They are trying to buy leverage. They will have identified a group of likeminded and get to the 25% mark to give their threat some weight. Will be a game of call my bluff…..if Triton walk, the price will crash, Elliot will demand management changes and then implement the same strategy but with a different board and management team…. a much longer and higher risk process to get pretty much to the same point.
Do you think they want a hire offer given their purchases over 900p ?
Started: piworld, 9 Dec 2021 09:12
Last post: Goolang, 9 Dec 2021 09:29
Basically, he is saying a reverse takeover and remaining listed but being a private equity firm. Interesting, but it might be a no go.
Andy Brough mentions Clinigen #CLIN in the latest PIWORLD interview at 17m18s then again at 19m
Watch the video here: https://www.piworld.co.uk/education-videos/piworld-interview-with-andy-brough-markets-lessons-learned-in-2021/
Or listen to the Podcast here: https://piworld.podbean.com/e/piworld-interview-with-andy-brough-markets-lessons-learned-in-2021/
Started: Goolang, 9 Dec 2021 08:42
Last post: Goolang, 9 Dec 2021 08:42
There could be a competing bid coming?
Started: godshare, 7 Dec 2021 15:18
Last post: Goolang, 8 Dec 2021 15:38
This increase implies there are rumblings for more, but i think the offer will be accepted in the end.
Just looking at the volume today there appear to be many buyers that are looking for a higher offer. The number of shares pledged to the offer is low.
Expect some announcements that this bid undervalues the company….there is a good chance of institutional investors extracting a higher price to get the deal over the line.
A disappointing probable end…not what was promised a few years ago.
Atleast the Bod has landed a deal. If another bidder emerges that will be interesting, but better to have a respectable deal than to drive this bidder away……bird in hand etc.
I expect we will see clinigen services prosper….and triton sell the products. That creates a high margin low risk operation to bring back to market as the growth peaks in a few years time.
it must be christmas, my sell instruction triggered higher than i'd set and i'm finally out of this pos, good luck to those holding for another bid, can't see it happening to be honest, godshare hit the nail on the head i think, and this is all she wrote.
Better offer might be forthcoming
Started: Goolang, 7 Dec 2021 11:28
Last post: ragnarlothbrok, 7 Dec 2021 14:23
That would be the market view. But the board could argue the following against a low ball bid:
- the profit warning was due to a temporary Covid headwind and its impact on hospital based treatments
- the Erwinase decision is a delay, not a permanent reduction in value
- the services side has significantly strengthened over the last year with a lot of new business wins. The future looks very promising for this side of the business, more so than a year ago
I took this up for a trade so I would be happy if the board could agree on a decent price, with a clean structure, maybe around 900p in cash. Of course a bidding war would be even better. But just playing the devil's advocate here, I don't think the board will give this up easily and it may come down to institutional support
Whatever the price was that gave Advent a look is pretty irrelevant. Since then they have missed their numbers, issued a profit warning, won’t be getting to sell Erwinaze in the US anytime soon after the CRL last week and abruptly parted company with the CFO. If they don’t sell the company will get broken up. Doing that in the public market is a lot less attractive than selling the whole thing and let PE take the risks that come with that strategy. Hopefully the board will take a pragmatic view and sell at a reasonable premium over the average price since the profit warning.
It would appear so. Something is motivating buyers, possibly shorts closing
There were rumours of an offer from Advent last year pitched at £10.50+. The SP spiked from £7.30 ish to over 9. Conditions and prospects have improved substantially since then. I think the odds are stacked against a friendly deal happening, it doesn't seem like anything less than £10 will get a look in
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-8417997/Advent-International-bought-Cobham-eyes-Clinigen.html
Something has leaked, looks like it could be over 800p.
Started: phax71, 2 Dec 2021 19:12
Last post: jiddy123, 7 Dec 2021 13:39
So you asked this BB for a speculative SP, and then bailed. You are just a trader plain & simple!
Spot on Jatw!
There is NO need for yu to post in the future then phax!
Missed out on today's rise - you win some, you lose some!
God give me strength.
Would be my best shot at ggms
Jiddy123 - I managed to get out earlier at £7.88 so I'm OK with that, not huge profit, but healthy enough.
No idea what is GGMS is...
Last post: CrystalBallBroke, 3 Dec 2021 23:59
you should try being a Stagecoach AND National Express shareholder LOL...... i've lost count of the number of holdings/form 83 RNS's i've seen for those 2 !
In 22 years of being a PI, i have never seen so many issued in one day.
Started: ragnarlothbrok, 3 Dec 2021 12:58
Last post: CrystalBallBroke, 3 Dec 2021 14:17
yeah my heart bleeds for them
NOT, hope they lose a bucket load
Who feels sorry for GLG with a short position of 1.1%? Increased the day before the news, what a shame for them
https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B89J2419/
Started: Goolang, 3 Dec 2021 14:08
Last post: Goolang, 3 Dec 2021 14:08
Let us see what the result is. Maybe on Monday we will get more details.
Started: Goolang, 3 Dec 2021 11:56
Last post: Goolang, 3 Dec 2021 11:56
I have a feeling it could be on the low side for some.
Respect to anyone who locks in a profit. So many small investors fail to do it time after time.
Can't blame you, could get messy here. Board will think its worth more than the offer no doubt, but perhaps there is enough of a disgruntled base that they can get a hostile bid over the line. A low ball offer could also expose the company to a bidding war. There are at least 2 parties now which think that the company is undervalued. How many more are there? At its peak it hit 1200p and big things are being predicted for the pharm sector. Although they don't have a huge stake having Eliot on board should make for some drama at least
I'm out too, happy with my profit
I don't know either how Elliot will play it, but I won't be around to find out having taken that 20% return this lunchtime. Ammo is required in this falling market! Best of luck investors.
We need 900p above offer, Clinigen is too valuable below that price!!
Started: HideInPlainSight, 2 Dec 2021 11:42
Last post: HideInPlainSight, 2 Dec 2021 11:42
LIBERUM CUTS CLINIGEN PRICE TARGET TO 780 (800) PENCE - 'BUY'
Started: unhooked, 1 Dec 2021 12:10
Last post: ragnarlothbrok, 1 Dec 2021 12:44
Unbelievable recovery. I wonder what time Paul Singer and his team wake up in New York. I bet he's an early riser. 7am London time is 2am in NY. Volume today is 4x the average for November, close to 2% of total issued shares and only half way through the day. I think we will see a notification from Elliot or another of the institutions tomorrow
...for once. Someone's buying . Good to see.
Started: HideInPlainSight, 1 Dec 2021 08:04
Last post: HideInPlainSight, 1 Dec 2021 11:51
Are people starting to focus on services now today's news is out there? I'm confident here and mindful of this statement from the results...
"The outlook for Services is positive with a continued strong pipeline and a good number of new high value projects to deliver revenues in FY2022. There are currently more than 350 opportunities across the pipeline with a combined value of more than £80m"
Wild ride there, down to 540 and back, someone is loading, Eliot must have taken some more, if they were happy to buy over 6 then at that price they couldn't resist. Expect to see some more action from them in the near future
At least get the title of the RNS right. Incompetence of the highest order
I wish I could see Elliot's reaction! I wonder if they are increasing their stake.
Interesting that guidance hasn't changed for this year or next. Although is that pinned on 'continued pipeline strength' rather than conversion. The assumption was Erwinase US sales to commence next quarter after approval this quarter. After building inventory and a relatively slow rollout I can't imagine they had it contributing much this year. A decent chunk of Porton's fee must have been linked to approval which will also help.
The rest of the business must be doing pretty well, 7% down seems a little overdone but the market has spoken
Doubly Incompetent. Porton for getting the science /submission not adequately designed / documeNted sufficiently to get approval. Clin for putting out a materially incorrect RNS
But atleast they corrected it promptly. Complete response letters are not uncommo but are largely avoidable with good regulatory engagement in the design of the trials
Rather misleading RNS headline!
Started: iambobg, 17 Nov 2021 10:22
Last post: ironknut, 30 Nov 2021 16:52
Good to note Questor [ DT ] gives sound reasons for keeping faith with Clinigen. As one who has taken a beating, investing here,will for now stay with them.
I'd say that their case would be that the business has been mismanaged and that if management focused solely on services then its EBITDA should be much higher. The 33m is historic, consensus has total EBITDA growing 8-12m p.a.a over the next few years, I don't know the breakdown between services/non services but if a lot of its services then that would change the equation. The healthcare sector is hot right now, there should be loads of new deals in the pipeline which could support higher future earnings, how much is future earnings potential worth?
EV say 820 equity and 320 debt total 1140.
Services EBITDA is 33
Product EBITDA is 90
If services is valued at 15x =495
Value of product = 645 a@ multiple of 7.
Not a slam dunk for PE to take over and make a lot of cash from.
Elliot wants to split the business up. Believes the sum of the parts is more than the whole and that a good business has been mismanaged. The services business is the jewel. The acquisition of UDG was on an EV/EBITDA multiple of over 15x. Clinigen is valued at half that.
https://news.sky.com/story/activist-elliott-floats-break-up-of-pharma-services-group-clinigen-12404003
What is the likely outcome for the future of Clinigen with Elliot taking an increased holding in the company.
Started: fatprofits, 13 Nov 2021 18:02
Last post: Jatw, 17 Nov 2021 08:54
Looks like BoA was buying for Elliot….stake of 7% confirmed.
We need some positive news to flush out the short sellers, irrespective of what BoA do. It doesn't help having an endless flow of news on Covid, whilst the waiting list for other life threatening conditions in the UK and elsewhere grows endlessly longer and treatments are postponed, which hurts Clinigen.
You need to read that Rns again mate
However shorts do need to close out here...highly borrowed stock @ 6.2% end of Oct
Probably both….and persuade a client to make a bid.
Question is did Bank of America buy to make a profit from a higher SP, or buy to lend to short seller clients and profit from the lending of the stock?
Started: Lebus, 28 Oct 2021 23:16
Last post: Lebus, 28 Oct 2021 23:16
Any low volume of daily trades allows B of A to marshall the market but the bottom line is that they are accumulating
Bank of America now increased to 7.8%. Sold to reduce price per share and then buy at a cheaper rate. They ain’t going away
Proleukin should be depreciated…surprised a write down was not taken this year.
Like the services business…limited capital required, easy to scale and they keep signing new contracts….would be good to know the fees by contract to see f they are signing big deals.
BOA has reduced its holding this week 8.3% down to 6.8%…..no deal emerging..
I’m expecting Proleukin to be a write off at some point. Sooner the better - get it out of the way I reckon.
Services side of the business is a different game altogether. Generates revenue that supports a dividend for investors( I’d happily forgo a dividend if the focus was on reducing debt). Clinigen has a niche product with still massive potential for growth.
At the rate Bank of America are increasing their stake in the business, Can’t be long before a bid
Bank of America still accumulating. The wolves are crouched in the bushes. Just hope it’s a costly pounce.
Started: Jatw, 3 Oct 2021 16:22
Last post: Batterseafish, 12 Oct 2021 22:18
COVID drug treatment offers more hope……….and Elliot plotting in the background too
A big fat zero so far.