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testpack, Good post there. I've been looking at Catlin lately and it looks v cheap IMO but it's not usually the share I go for so I'm holding off for now. In response to your points (well spotted by the way): 1) agree 2) CAT losses, by their v nature, should be v infrequent and are of course unpredictable. However, the very fact Catlin have thought through CAT events to what appears to be quite a high degree implies there's decent reinsurance in place here in the event a catastrophic event does occur. Having said that I wouldn't consider it a good thing for Catlin to be increasing their exposure to in the pursuit of income so would consider this a negative still (even taking into account the fact decent reinsurance is probably in place). However, even when taking the above into account, Catlin still looks cheap against the market, against its peers, etc. Just some thoughts of mine. All the best, Dan
Majority of posts are of the accord that there is only 1 way for the sp to go - North. The fundamentals also suggest this direction. I would not disagree. However,since the business CGL is in - risk, I am reminded of an old saying, 'always expect the unexpected'. Reading through the bottom pages of H1 results ( admirable as they were), I noted 2 inclusions: 1) less than`$50M will be included as claims in H2 for MH14 and loss of aircraft at Tripoli airport following rebel action. 2) An increase in income for ' catastrophic' events, although premiums for such events have decreased by 6%. No 1) as stated in rns H1, will have no significant affect on results for full year. No 2) This is where the waters are muddy. The co, attempts to explain it's risk management modelling by citing a number of possible 'high cost' natural disasters. eg., typhoons, and earthquakes in Japan, Hurricanes in Gulf of Mexico and Florida, flooding in Europe. It does not however give any indication ( as far as I could ascertain, apologies, if incorrect) on the number or frequency of such catastrophes. I am sure the modellers have given probable numbers to these. This is where the crux of my opinion lies. Whatever has caused climate change is not the issue, the fact is, that in a lifetime, weather patterns have changed. What were once called 1 in a 100 year event, can now happen in successive years. Square law probability theory will give possible time scales, intensities for such events, and give a monetary figure. But it must also be within the bounds of probability, that it is possible for such events to occur, all of them, not once, but twice or more, within one accounting period. An actuary might say, if asked, that the probability of such events happening is less than 1%, or another low number. The co is increasing it's exposure by writing more business, and doing it for less income, ie: increasing the risk factor. In the 'probable' event that few of these catastrophic events occur, it promises to be another stellar year for the co./ However, if the unexpected were to happen, with a MCap of £1.8B, the sp would go South,and way South. I only post this to temper the enthusiasm of what has been described as a greatly undervalued share. It is, if there are not too many disasters. All IMHO of course, DYOR, and GL
I believe CGL could be considerably re-rated once interest rates go up. Rising interest rates are a certainty over the longer term and will give CGL much better "total investment return" (1.6% last H1).
Agreed, however, do not see 'doubling' in near term. CGL obviously show v good ' risk' . management, and I would be v. happy with 10% upside in the run up to the Autumn. C IMHO of course.
Agreed..... Just take a look at the recent interim results. Profits up 118%. Can see this doubling. Gl
Got in at 483 on Thursday. Looking good.
got in at 503........ im looking at this being in the region of 700p by xmas so we will see. I ll probably still be posting on my own here!
Anyone have an opinion as to why this is or if its just cheap? I see Neil woodford has Catlin in his portfolio.
400p? I think you will be lucky to see sub 500p. Investment returns are low but this is a well run insurer, so the insurance business should provide an excellent return. Yes returns are volatile in this sector but there has been a lot of consolidation in the sector. The smaller players are finding it more difficult to compete as a result of Solvency II. Well run insurers with risk diversified portfolios should do well. Catlin is such a company. The dividend is great and progressive making this a great income play. Not only that but Mr Catlin has circa £30m of shares, significant skin in the game, even for a wealthy man. Catlin has survived numerous US windstorms and I expect it to continue to do so!
looks like a buying opportunity coming up in time to come. target entry price at 470p.
if u wait till sub 400p, yield would be closer to 8%. do u think that is going to happen? i think u will wait on. :) anyway, i sold out on this spike because i needed to put the funds elsewhere so good luck to anybody still invested here.
Price is too lofty I'd prefer to buy Sub 400 considering the downside risks.
Ex div date today hence drop. Divs were raised by 5% in recent results.
Catlin Group: Deutsche Bank ups target price from 584p to 604p and retains a hold recommendation. Canaccord Genuity raises target price from 555p to 600p and reiterates a buy recommendation.
yielding almost 5.6% p.a. even after taking transactional costs into account, who can resist these returns? almost 3.7% of this will be calculated 10 days from today(final dividend at 31p) and shareholders to be paid on 20th march. if i can raise more funds, i will plonk more in here...i think. short wait for such a great return. i'm in! http://www.investegate.co.uk/catlin-group-limited--cgl-/rns/dividend-declaration/201402100900026594Z/
As expected - a stonkin set of results,
SP has a sustained increase since beginning of October. FYE end of December. Excellent news on the horizon ? Even at today's SP div in excess of 5% . Cash in now or wait for results. Decisions , decisions ! GLA
Lol......
so forward PE ratio is estimated net earnings divided by the no. of shares in issue
PE ratio is 12month net earnings divided by the shares in issue
Hi, Can anybody be helpful enough and explain (in Plain English) what the formula is for working out "How the price trades on forecast earnings" please. I see this mentioned quite often in the Investors Chronicle. Any help would be appreciated
Cannacord Genuity today rate Catlin BUY with 590p target ... bring on a bit of that action !!!
Catlin Group: Credit Suisse reduces target price from 525p to 495p and downgrades from neutral to underperform.
Catlin Group: Goldman Sachs downgrades to neutral with a target price of 570p.
Catlin Group: Bank of America downgrades to underperform with a target price of 515p.