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Defensive play as in?
It's holding are (other than wine) are definitely in the Consumer defensive/staples sectors.
I think CGEO is getting tarred with a Russian brush. But value will out. It's also good for diversification and is quite a defensive play in the current uncertain env't.
I found this article very insightful as to the complexity of the political situation but interesting too that there appears to be a brain drain of skilled Russian seeking to move to a democratic, free country.
https://globalvoices.org/2022/08/12/georgia-and-russia-spar-with-online-bullying-historical-grievances-and-visa-regulations/
Agricore
Market doesn't think much of it.
Odd as bank of Georgia just keeps going up.
Plus paying Georgia capital large dividends.
The accounts were to June so its share price has moved up considerably since then.
Transfers from Russia to Georgia are also a record. According to the latest data, almost 700 million US dollars have been transferred from Russia to Georgia. Many Russian citizens acquire property and register businesses in Georgia. Private Russian schools and kindergartens will be opened by September. Most of the prestigious restaurants play Russian music.
What can be connected with the abundance of Russian tourists in Georgia?
https://www.interpressnews.ge/ka/article/722447-giorgi-kunaze-rusetis-rezhimis-kraxi-gardauvalia-dges-ukve-cxadad-chans-rom-es-mxolod-drois-sakitxia
thanks to https://www.lse.co.uk/chat/general/general/the-georgian-election-1D3531D6-391B-42B4-9C9C-C9F8383D0BB8.html?page=22
Agreed 1472 is a nice number.
Market not that bothered either way.
SD I think we can be (very) happy with 1472p.
Personally I'm happy they carry on with the buy backs. The uplift today is in large part to the 6% of shares hoovered up at a bargain price. Long term that's the most lucrative way to appreciate the value here.
GLA
1292 to 1400 is 8.35% gain. Very likely.
Oops forgot about the buy backs they have been very consistent.
Now I am inclined to think 1400 is achievable.
Not that it matters a huge amount as 672 is getting close to 50% discount which is ridiculous.
What we need is the sale of one business with part of the sale proceeds paid to shareholders.
Agricore
"My estimation will be that it's actually been a positive."
How have you come up with this estimate?
As an aside the rather dramatic increase in the share price of bank of Georgia should mean a reasonable increase in NAV unless other parts of the portfolio are devalued.
Is that 1400 a re rating of the NAV.?
Not impossible but I think the other companies have to move upwards. Higher profits and lower risk are the requirements.
I'm looking forward to Friday's Q2 results. Last reported NAV was 1292p and there's been buy backs since then. A rerate to 1400p+ isn't impossible, but holding the NAV steady during a turbulent period of war, shortage and pessimism will be impressive. The question is to what extent (if any) the Ukraine war has been a positive or negative for Georgia?
My estimation will be that it's actually been a positive.
GDP in Georgia is expected to reach 19.00 USD Billion by the end of 2022 (from 18.60 USD Billion 2021), according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Further ahead, the Georgia GDP is projected to trend around 21.00 USD Billion in 2023 and 22.00 USD Billion in 2024, according to its econometric models.
If that's true that's accelerating growth to circa 5%.
No, I don't think we are seeing the effects of buy backs. I think it's more to do with Bank of Georgia share price increase. I am up 22% on BOG since April the 6th.
Are we beginning to see the effects of the buybacks?
When you consider the value of the company 280 million and 20 million available for buybacks, I am surprised its taken this long.
The company buys back more and more shares and the share price keeps falling. I am holding on until I am the last shareholder!!
Continuing down for no obvious reason. Eventhough there was a good jump in Bank of Georgia share price. I feel I will have to hang on a while before I see any share price gain.
Pity I am skint or I would consider buying more.
SD235; yes the BGEO price is holding up well; i don't see them selling their stake here, and its improving and see it being held long term as investment yield.
I always consider where there is a large NAV the possibility to take private at effectively undervalue, but that is normally a concern where a large/majority chunk is held; i see there is a wide spread of holders here so don't feel thats a concern here. However i do feel private equity could take this out - offering a 40% premium to SP would look good, seal the deal but really would only be paying the intrinsic value of the Company rather than any 'premium' for the potential/growth.
damofarl BGEO holding up given the present market.
damofarl
A bit worried they may decide to delist.
minusbat; thanks for your post about emailing for investors day; yes nice that they responded, albeit having space for instituional/family trusts only rather tells you their focus investor wise - namely that they aren't remotely interested in individual investors.
SD235 - never good to see a NAV drop but yes the Ukraine situation does seem to have impacted valuations generally, and the sales of the wine business (mostly into Russia) specifically. That said revenues are up approx 20% which is always a positive, and the best part of half of the NAV drop can be attributed just to BGEO's SP drop. If you believe BGEO is undervalued/will rise, as i do, then a big chunk of that loss will be reversed.
They aren't blistering, but to me i'm happy with them. Very much business as normal. The 20% water holding will provide some upside, either realised or held like BGEO investment trust holding style. I can see the healthcare going the same way as water in due course. Much here for the patient is my view.
Not good. Big fall. 16% all according to the board due to the ukraine Russia war. The rest of the figures look good. IE profits up.
Personally I think the company can't list companies on a stock exchange. Previous listing suggest that. Instead I think sales like the water companies sale.
Appreciate other peoples views on the accounts.
So, I wont be able to go - I got this back from them yesterday...
"We will be making a detailed announcement of our strategy and business updates next Monday and will make all the
presentation slides and a recording of the event available on our website. We are however limited with regard to space for physical attendance at the event and are therefore having to restrict attendance to research analysts and institutional/family office investors. "
Which I guess is understandable, though am a little disappointed. Nice they wrote back though. Thats form a longer email politely asking which institution I was representing, as they had no records of me ;)
fair enough :) I put in a request for registration, so may well trundle down if works not too busy that day - should be interesting....
"somewhat foolish to be sat there surrounded by corporate investors with hundreds of thousands of funds invested..."
Why? You have every right to be there. I would be surprised if there wasn't a large number of small share holders there.
Go and update us. I live in deepest darkest Lincolnshire and I don't own car so I can't go.
Got an invite to the day on the 9th of May, and was thinking of going along, as its within walking distance of my flat ;) Curious as to whether anyone else was going, or indeed whether its worth it for a small private investor. Would feel somewhat foolish to be sat there surrounded by corporate investors with hundreds of thousands of funds invested...
Adding to there holdings. Any idea in what oeic or closed ended company they are holding them in?
I am still worried that they may take this company private.
J.P. Morgan Securities plc