Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Oops inflation fallen to 8.1%
https://tradingeconomics.com/georgia/inflation-cpi#:~:text=Clothing%20and%20footwear%3B%20hotels%2C%20cafes,15%20percent%20of%20total%20weight.&text=2%2DYear%20Low-,The%20annual%20inflation%20rate%20in%20Georgia%20rose%20to%209.4%20percent,percent%20in%20December%20last%20year.
Damofarl
if anything Georgia as a a country (and BGEO specifically) must have benefitted from inflows of capital from Russians able to seek a relatively speaking more stable governance.
Initially this pushed exchange rates and now its being held up by interest rates.
I don't think this can last.
Hence my sale BGEO, Georgia Capital.
BGEO Dividend will be effected significantly offset by increase in the dividend.
There was other reasons for me selling both of them in my isa.
Edison research issued today 08/03/23
https://www.edisongroup.com/research/nearing-deleveraging-target/32058/
I intend on holding on until till the discount has gone. Very hopeful I know. I actually intend on selling when inflation falls far enough for sovereign Bank of Georgia to reduce interest rates. They are presently 11% and the lari moved up from 32p Equals 1 lari to 33 Equals 1 lari yesterday.
I guess they will not reduce till inflation hits 8% or even lower. Presently inflation 9.4%. It is falling quite fast. The aim being to buy back as I assume the share price will fall. Although there could be a catalyst to stop that happening namely a sale of one of its larger businesses.
I sold already all my Georgia Capital and bank of Georgia in my isa. I have decent amount left in my sipp.
Minusbat; you pose an interesting question with what is the exit strategy, one I'm pondering too, albeit I don't think it is near plateauing. I think there is much value still to be realised here.
And I say that as someone who is primarily a yield investor albeit with a contrarian value bent.
Having read the recent results, the following come to mind -
Cash at hand plus BGEO stake are greater than market cap, disregarding other investments and the remaining 20% of the sold water business.
Most of the businesses are generating dividends, yes driven by BGEO, but my rough calculation put them as an effective 3% yield on mkt cap.
The ongoing BGEO buyback means they are selling down their stake, but only because it is rising but they are quite specific about retaining around 19%, which I like as believe there is more value in BGEO itself particularly as a yielder.
So I'm no clearer than you as to an exit. I think the nature of the beast means it will never pay a dividend (which I'd prefer to the buybacks here), but I can see , would quite like Ike to see, it morphing into a kind of investment trust holding minority stakes in private equity stocks it backed and floated, which like BGEO could grow and be more positive about dividends.
I don't really see the Ukraine resolution as being a consideration - if anything Georgia as a a country (and BGEO specifically) must have benefitted from inflows of capital from Russians able to seek a relatively speaking more stable governance.
There is still a large discount to NAV here, and despite rising 10% in a month, I don't think I'll form an exit strategy until this has risen another 20%, be that a month or a year.
Am interested in what other peoples exit criteria are here - when would you think "OK, it's 'plateaued, time to move on". Am thinking I will hold it until the end of the Ukraine war, as regional stability should give it a bit of a boost, but I dont have a target price or anything. What do other people do ?
Sd235; well slowly but surely it is rising. One for the patient this, but there is deep value and oppurtunity here. This may be the tortoise that catches the (BGEO) hare.....
How cheap does company have to be?
I wouldn't mind but I bought bank of Georgia at the same time it's up 100% plus.
https://youtu.be/O0QLt5bpBYU
At the end of the interview he mentions Georgia capital.
I doubled up on these instead of bank of Georgia. A mistake at least in the short term.
Ridiculous discount.
Georgia Capital also a choice of former fund manager Ken Baksh in this interview, although I think he picked this up earlier. About 20 minutes in
https://youtu.be/O0QLt5bpBYU
Up 8.5% after webcast. Said during webcast discount 70%
NAV up 8.2% in Lari but about 20% in sterling (not sure I remembered that correctly).
Hospitals and clinics still holding them back as they have not fully converted back to precovid work load.
Spread getting very large.
Nearly 5% been around this for at least a week.
Buy backs reduced the free float? Institutes not selling, retail investors are the free float.
Bugger.
May or may not be related.
https://georgiatoday.ge/call-for-military-service-is-announced-in-occupied-abkhazia/
Bigger fall bank of Georgia
An extremely risky investment policy. Specially as I also own bank of Georgia. I have yet to bother to work out my overall allocation to Georgia. With my allocation to Vietnam my allocation to frontier markets is clearly pushing my luck. But the discount on Georgia Capital is ridiculous. I am assuming that sooner or later it will narrow. I suspect the latter to be the more likely.
Odd do we really want the share price to go up....... before they have used up all the buy back cash?
Paying 40p for £1 worth of assets shouldn't be a difficult call!?
Starting to show a bit of positive movement
Sold my legal and general in my sipp bought Georgia capital.
UP
I think it's time for this share to start moving.
I am inclined to sell out of some of my shares. Specially legal and general. Which have a beta of 1.5. Despite being a beneficiary of higher interest rates. Presently up 62% on bank of Georgia. Fair chance Georgia capital will follow
Bank of Georgia heralded the strong Georgian economy in its update to the market. We are at 55% discount to NAV - keep the buy backs coming CGEO!
Can't find the link to todays webcast. Anyone help?
SD, arguably even wine is a staple :)
Can't say I've ever had the pleasure of a Georgian Vintage however.
It's defensive in the verticals: Hospitals, insurance, clinics, pharmacy, education, renewables, utilities --- mainly boring businesses, but in an interesting economy.