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Sotolo,
The UK government dare not raise interest rate because the economy is in recession, there are shortages in the supermarkets, energy prices are at all times and the UK economy is buggered due to Brexit!
Gnome, have you noticed that even the optimistic pundits are turning south - Gary Wagner’s, usually on the mark, gold report depressingly says this weekend “ Based upon our analysis we see a high probability that we have entered a multiyear price decline in gold. This is based upon the study from 2009 to the former record top that occurred in the middle of 2011, the multiyear decline which took gold from $2019 down to $1040 at the end of 2015.”. Todd ‘bubba’, Sunshine etc similar. The only hope is that with such extreme negativity, the most I have seen in years, is everyone already out and are we due an uptick or will gold tumble as they all predict and will Cey be losing money next year? Please don’t shoot me, I am only reporting what most pundits (apart from the ever optimistic AM & a few) are saying, that both charts and fundamentals are broke and this is very reminiscent of the fall after the last quantative easing reductions? All Inhold on to is that inflation is real, so real interest rates will fall, but at the moment commodity prices that soared are tumbling back so maybe the Fed and market are right, it is only temporary, so the coming rises in interest rates won’t just be nominal but real? Thoughts oh wise ones….
V interesting video on gold investing .....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHdHgygLZ-A
Whatever sounds very positive IMO.
GOOD research as usual, thanks.
You could be right MrBond - but I suspect it's just a brand new contract to add another decline.
I've noticed at other companies management will choose to impart a little competition between crews/companies. Then there is some incentive to outdo the other in terms of safety, meters completed etc. Either way we don't have long to wait. November the work begins.
Don ,I wonder if this might have something to do with the underground drill that was allowed to self destruct a whie back with nothing to back it up.
That cost dearly in loss of higher grade material,there was no adequate excuse for that.
1st --> An on-site meeting held at Egypt's Sukari mine (one week ago) see photo and post here:
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6846445587785666560/
Members of the QME #mining #contracting team together with LTMS in Egypt at the Centamin Sukari #gold mine for ongoing discussions for a pending project.
#mine #tunnel #tunneling #miningequipment #rentalequipment #egypt #project
2nd --> An open call for applicants (posted yesterday)
Mining Positions Available (FIFO)
A QME & LTMS collaboration team are looking for experienced mining personnel for a gold mine project in North Africa, starting in phases from November to January, initially for a one year contract. Rotation is 6 weeks on, 3 weeks off. Positions include Mine and Maintenance Supervisors, Jumbo Drillers, Longhole Drillers, Cablebolters, Shotcreters, LHD Operators and Fitters.
Interested people should send a CV to careers@qme.ie
--------------------------------------------->>>
My Thoughts:
So is this:
a) a REPLACEMENT for the current underground contractors Barminco
or
b) an ADDITION
Barminco's has had the Sukari contract a long time. It might be more plausible that a new decline is being created from the open pit level to accelerate the underground ounce contribution i.e. get the volume up from around 0.7 Mt to 2Mt (see here: https://perentigroup.com/blog/projects/sukari/ )
PS this new outfit QME is headquartered in Ireland - which would suit Mr Horgan quite well !
Hi Dasut,
No need for apologies on explaining the facts as far as you are aware and able on some very complex and important issues which you know about through actual experience, not rumor!
The post concerning "Offshore leaks" is a very old one, so possibly they no longer hold the shares it is claimed they once did.
Usually there is some statement when a director sells their shares orsteps down from the board of a company, neither appear to be easily found in this case.
Most conspiracy theories, rumors or misinformation are a result of poor or non existent communication between the parties concerned and as we are aware such was the case with Centamin in recent years on various issues.
However since the arrival of Martin Horgan and his team there seems to be a desire to bring about genuine open and honest communications with share holders within the constraints of financial market regulations .
That said it wouldn't be in share holders interests to answer some questions that may be commercially or market sensitive especially in an open forum.
Alwaysone sorry for my ramblings I will try in future to keep it short.
Hi Candid,
If you check back through some of the Centamin quarterly presentations in recent years the analysts from RBC Capital Markets and others asked why didn't Centamin produce a three year plan / look forward strategy and if it were possible to produce one, although reluctant due as he explained to the unpredictability of mining (certainly when Andrew Pardey was running the show )he never the less subsequently produced and presented a 3 year plan of sorts.
In all fairness and even allowing for the unpredictable nature of mining this combined with Andrew Pardeys spoofing and his failure of applying sound mining practice at Sukari meant his three year plan turned out to be as reliable as a chocolate teapot and despite our past disappointments we all got kicked in the bal(ls again with production downgraded and a 50% share price hair cut!
After this hings seemed to improve at Sukari as production seemed to be returning to normality and the share price rose aided by the rise in the POG , some brokers were even rating Centam @£2.90 target price, seemed we were at last getting to where we had been promised after so many years of in Pardey speak "Unavoidable & Unexpected events")
However our relief, even elation that there was a chance the good times really had arrived was all dashed in an RNS waning of yes an unexpected fault in a pit wall which due to safety drastically reduced access to the higher grade ore!
So much for a three year plan when it is based on spoof and unsound mining practices!
As to Capital I agree it's onto a nice little earner being awarded contacts by directors of mining companies for drilling lots of holes all over the place and getting paid irrelevant or not if the results or good or bad, compared to the mining company who has to foot the bill irrelevant of whatever the drill bits discovers.
After our experience I question the credibility or reliability of any 3 year plan as far as mining goes and see the absolute priority as getting Sukari producing gold ore on a resalable and sustainable basis.
Well there seems to be quite some conspiracy theories going on regarding Centamin and Capital.
I can't find any mention on the Capital web site of any Centamin board members past or present on the board of Capital, grateful if someone knows better.
Maybe if we could drill down "excuse the pun" we might find that sort of relationship in the early days of the drilling contract agreements when maybe Capital had to register an Egyptian company for operational purposes and to benefit from the terms and conditions of the mine in relationship to the terms applicable to developing the mine such as tax benefits on capital expenditure and duty free privileges etc. I don't have any proof of this but having worked on similar problems in developing countries this is possible and may be necessary.
My question is back to candidinvestor's suggestion that Cey buy Capital and I still say why spend over $200 million on a company that is supplying a service on a cost per tonne/metre drilled basis without having to spend millions on equipment and just as important maintaining the equipment.
An important fundamental is what does Cey want that is core to their business that Capital can offer?
If Batie is non core because the ore structure is outside of their brief I would suggest owning what is primarily a drilling company is way down the pecking list.
Horses for courses Capital are a very good drilling company and this is borne out by being employed by other mining companies and in particular Barrick (three mines) and Anglogold Ashanti (Geita) who's relationship goes back way before Sukari .I mention Barrick and Anglogold Ashanti because I was actively involved with Barrick and Geita when they were developing their Tanzanian mines and used to talk after hours with the drillers (among them Capital guys) at the then only bar at the Tilapia Hotel Mwanza. They have considerable experience great people working for them so I can understand how relationships are built.
Capital if memory serves me were introduced to Sukari then known as Pharaoh Gold by people who were recruited from the Tanzanian Mining scene in particular from Geita and North Mara, several of these guys were actually involved at the time 2005/6 that my team and I were discussing the fleet of mining machines best suited to the then mine plan.
Interestingly at that time the mine plan in particular the in depth detail of the resource was pretty much the best that I had seen. I don't think anyone can dispute that the first 3/4 years of Sukari was pretty damn good and when I retired in 2008 I was impressed with the organisation and the people involved, so much so I invested.
Like a lot of people and businesses they get over ambitious over promoted and need to be reigned in and taken back to basics and I think we are at that stage which is painful but necessary.
Would buying another company help at this time when the new management are getting to grips with what they already have not sure?
Food for thought and problematic for returning SP to well over 100p.
Dividend receipt yesterday should keep me quiet for a bit.
(Luderitz - Many thanks for your thoughts but other than to comment NvS is starting to bother me I shall not wander into o/t.)
A couple of you guys spend what seems hours posting on here. Must have some serious money invested for the effort. A lot of the info is interesting but can be a bit long and very detailed. Have a good weekend, weather is awful here!
Re post original by Mr Gnome
11 March 2019-03-11
goldgnome
Posts: 98
Opinion: No Opinion
Price: 96.00
Sun 21:06
Perhaps of interest, I see that Capital Drilling forms strategic partnerships with companies, which includes drilling for equity, which it does for a range of companies. Other drill companies do the same. It may have been a good thing for Centamin at the time to help it get going?
It also is rapidly expanding into West Africa, including Burkina Faso and Cote D’Ivoire. It may of course be a coincidence that that is where Centamin is expanding, and then again it may not be.
http://www.capdrill.com/about-us/strategy
You can see in their 2010 Ann Report "Since late January 2011 there has been some significant political upheaval in Egypt, with the fall of President Hosni Mubarak and the installation of an interim government until democratic elections are held in September this year. It is important to clarify that operations at
Centamin Egypt’s Sukari Gold Project, which accounts for approximately 20% of Capital Drilling’s total rig fleet, were not materially impacted by the upheavals and that development, grade control and exploration drilling continues as per normal. Indeed, it is anticipated that Capital Drilling’s operations in Egypt will see further growth in 2011."
Cont-
Offshore Leaks Centamin directors links to Capital Drilling
https://www.imd.org/research-knowledge/articles/the-four-tiers-of-conflict-of-interest-faced-by-board-directors/
https://offshoreleaks.icij.org/nodes/82006106
https://twitter.com/CapitalDrilling/status/1021939160330817536
Also
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/207814/capital-drilling-lands-contract-renewal-for-centamins-sukari-mine-207814.html
I think questions need to be asked of the in view of the appalling mess up in 2018 on the part of the drilling contractor and the apparent failure of the Sukari i management to mitigate production risk which was brushed off as a "Blip".
It seems both the Cey CEO Josef and Youssef El-Raghy general manger & director of Sukari are both listed as directors of Capital Drilling who provide all over ground drilling at Sukari.So if it appears the major share holders on the management board of Centamin are also major share holders in a Sukari drilling contractor who may have not carried out its duties as efficiently or as well as it should have done considering the ongoing production cuts in production guidance.
From the most recent report on 25th Feb 2019 the Cleopatra incline and the open pit are still not producing the higher grades or the improved output within the timescale share as promised to share holders by Andrew Pardey on behalf of the Centamin board.
This arrangement of Centamin and Capital Drilling being so closely intertwined by way of share ownership and the same senior management on both company boards and being represented to share holders by the same PR representative may be perfectly legal.
But even if this arrangement is perfectly legal then is it really in the best interests of the share holders as there will no doubt be occasions such as in 2018 (the effects of which of which we share holders are still suffering) when there may be a conflict of interests or management may be in a position where a particular situation means their loyalties may be divided?
Is this another example of glossing over a too close connection that may prove to be imprudent between the company and one of is contractors
Capital Drilling In addition to being Centamins main Sukari drilling contractor is also contacted on other mining projects all over West Africa, some of these on Centamin projects and also to other clients.
If as it appears Centamin is a major share holder/part owner in Capital Drilling then how much revenue or dividend is being earned by Centamin and is this shared with the Centamin share holders?
Also are some of these drilling projects being carried out to produce results and future return to Centamin share holders or profit to Capital Drilling ( More Holes drilled more profit to Capital and its share holders?)
Why then is it used so sparingly for the purposes you suggest?
CI
Centamin and Capital seemed to have had a very symbiotic relationship from the start of Mining (incl exploration) at Sukari, and this continues to this day. It would be interesting to look at the disclosures about this in the Annual reports for better disclsure, but if I recall CEY and/or its directors were significant seed funders of Capital? (again have to look at the relevant annual reports)
https://www.capdrill.com/media/investors/Presentations/Corp-Presentation-Jan-2011.pdf
"Capital Drilling has been active at the Sukari mine since 2005 and currently runs a fleet of 14 rigs, providing Sukari with blasthole and grade-control drilling services in the open pit.
Commenting on the contract extension chairman Jamie Boyton said: "Capital Drilling has been working with Centamin for 14 years, and we are delighted to continue this relationship as the demand for our services continues."
best
the gnome
Cowichan
Yes I heard that statement about Open Pit Resources, but remember MH is a Mining Engineer, and they are always on the conservative side of the fence in my experience, at least the very good ones are. They can be surprised, espcially when it comes to Geology.
I have done it again . Pressed send too soon
Ok my ambition would be to turn Centamin into a group of companies .
.
Centamin parent would carry on as normal and would continue (unencumbered by its acquisitions) as a gold mining only company .., However their short term business development plan would be to acquire a company like Capital .
Why I say Capital is because Capital has its own business development plan which is to invest in other growth companies that have their own business business development plans too, like Predictive Discovery etc
Future exploration costs for Centamin could be met from a number of funding sources, including cash returns from Capital , reduced Centamin dividends (what is the point of dividends when the company share price has lost of over 50% in the past year . ).and tight constraints on their own zero interest earning
$ 300 million cash in the bank
Whether or not the shortage of drilling equipment by Capital prevented them from obtaining the drilling contract in West Africa for Centamin over Perenti would be a board matter for Centamin
So what would I do ...Acquire Capital and give them full autonomy to continue as they are doing They seem to be doing a good job of it so far , and I haven't even touched upon the network of contacts Capital would bring ..
I will contribute more after all comments (hopefully enlightened ones ) come in
This isn't rocket science ..
It seems to me the propblem with how they had to manage the wall situation, is as MH said. The previous mine plan did not have sufficient optionality to allow this to be managed in a more normal manner. It is a normal occourrence to certain degree, and one which is built into the mine plan, if it is a proper mine plan. It clearly was not!
MH said on numerous times that he has and is building in proper optionality to cover such future events,
The previous "mine plan" by the previous "management" seems very suspect to me (bit like some of Pardey's presenations I suspect), and it is going to be interesting to hear what the future LOM plan is for Sukari, which is the next presentation as I understand it.
What I took home from the Doropo discussion was interesting
1. BFS mid next year (mid 2022)
2. Development team in place
Given they have the same development team as Toro, and Doropo is similar to Mako, this would indicate production of 200k ounces pa would probably start 2024, and first 5 years likely to be 200k pa...
Review Mako development ....
The definitive feasibility study (DFS) and the environmental and social impact assessment (ESIA) of the project were completed in July 2015. The project received a 15-year mining concession from the Senegalese Government in July 2016.
Construction of the project commenced in August 2016 and first gold was poured in January 2018. The initial production was started in February 2018.
Approximately 859kt of ore processed to produce 62,900oz of gold during the first six months of production ending June 2018.
The mine is estimated to produce 137,000oz of gold a year during the first six years of production.
Bought by Resolute for $400m
By 2024 they should have a bfs on ABC all going well, and away we go there.
best
the Gnome
He prvousy ,months ago said after the clearance of the waste he was not sure uncovering the deeper workings would change the prospect.
Which was honest and clear.
I am waiting for other contributions before I write the final part.
I don't think people understand where I am coming from . What I am proposing doesn't in the slightest affect Centamins current plans , and all the geologists who have commented favourably on what they heard , reassures about the major part of the Centamin
' group '
A Twitter post by David Burton:
This article was a couple of months ago on @CentaminPlc at around the same level as today.
“…Is a higher Golden Bid on the cards for Centamin?…”
I notice vague bid talk on the “Boards for #CEY and with #Gold making a move up, more upside than down?
https://twitter.com/DavidBurton1971/status/1443854637375934479
https://total-market-solutions.com/2021/04/centamin-plc/
---------------------------->>>>
My Thoughts:
Posts on Twitter about a possible new suitor for Centamin are far and few between - so when one pops up I get nervous... especially after the mini blitz of investor updates we've just received
One further thought - Mr Horgan did drop a 'control your enthusiasm' bomb during yesterday's Retail Investor Presentation that I don't think was discussed by our chat group yet - He said something like 'we don't expect the open pit resource to double...'
I thought that was curious considering the recent announcement by KL re: their Detour Lake mine tripling its open pit resources over the last 8 months. I value honesty. I do. But sometimes I prefer a little unbridled optimism, too. Especially since we're half the price we wuz just 12 months ago
Thanks Dasnut...an insightful post..I am out with friends, but I will reply tomorrow,