Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Just a thought: - Have we seen the shop window dressed today ready for the January-sale.
I have read a few of the postings today and don't get the negativity as I am relieved that Centamin at long last know what their resources have to offer and reserves are more realistic and conservative with production far more achievable. The relief for me is that if management didn't get hold of the operation we would be looking at less than 400,000 ounces per annum and losses rather than profits. AISC yes way too high next year but I for one have no idea how to reduce these costs so struggle to criticize, if they are to reach the flexibility that is required to mine multiple faces both above and below ground. I am disappointed however that they didn't address a question that I asked about Batie.
Not sure how they can fast track Doropo any more than they are because from the figures the proven reserves aren't sufficient to lay down a detailed mine plan and present a bankable document.
Moving to borrowing I feel comfortable with when growing the company and if successful will show confidence of the financial community and strengthen their credit rating. To be honest there aren't many if any growth organisations that I know that operate without some level of borrowing. Good luck to all of us because no doubt that Sukari is a first class resource and now in my opinion we have a team that has the guts to bite the bullet and suffer the costs of getting the mine back on track.
Given Centamin gets no respect or share price premium for its generous dividend AND the board risks our total demise in 2022 with flat production and rising input costs - the only solution I see is going big with exploration. The drill program is currently modest across the board - we need to become a GROWTH company NOW. Holding the dividend policy 'as is' for another year will be our demise.
"So reviewing old slides with the pit they took reserves out and have now added them back in - look at slide 15 and then the various old presentations..."
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It is truly amusing how the ounces were retracted through a reassessment of the Sukari ore body about a year ago - and now we've got them back via another reassessment.
The only thing that counts in the final assessment are the ounces produced. Not the smoke and mirrors of yet another 'transformation' by the same BODs. We need a new board, period.
Hi Dasut,
Thank you for your confirmation on this.
Washing a solar panel? They have a desalination plant that has good enough quality water to wash panels.
Agree. Can't read much into it.....
Well they did spend shed loads on drilling and exploration in West Africa, although to what ends and for what purpose exactly seems rather fuddled now to say the least!
UT
2mil buy shows proper trust to company...nice lads
Agree the board are a waste of time thats ehy they did nothing about Africa for a number of years
Also agrre that costs are high just when we thought 2022 was going to be a little better but that is not down to them oil,steel,labour,shippping has all gone up due to many reasons
Like i said earlier build 2 mines in 8 yrs no way
I wonder why the AISC cost projections are so high for 2022? - What is it that makes them so? -
https://twitter.com/DonLawson_/status/1468612007427330051
Centamin's board of directors need to go. This 'transformation' is a farce. AISC for 2022 is ridiculously high to be a 'goal'. Why no word of divesting Batie West? Why no thought of fast tracking Doropo? Zero accountability. The board lives in a dream world of ineptitude. Retire!
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I appreciate some will think my response is unfair and/or harsh.
Suffice it to say when you've seen the same BODs come out with 'reboots' year after year after year and entitle the presentation labelling 2021 as transformational you better deliver some transformational news. So the waste removal you contracted out is coming along, is it? Well done! Exceptional! Except the estimated AISC for 2022 is obscenely high - and we are supposed to applaud this as an aspirational goal? Total BS. The board of directors is beyond redemption in my book - every single one.
Looking at the sp now and other PMs, would have probably been close to this price without any announcement today.
Gold remains under pressure relatively speaking - still think all PMs are undervalued, this has been the case ever since the gold price started to drop post the big rise around the summer of 2020 when most analysts were predicting massive gold rises
The problem is that they have got to build 2 mines in the next few years one in Africa and one in Egypt assuming they find gold in their new concessions.That is a big ask for the company before they run out in 2034
The stand out comments are:
- mineral reserves increasing by 1.0 Moz net of depletion. This means they have added 2 years of mine life.
- much of the increase seems to come from underground sources, which are in my opinion the highest cash flow yielding ounces.
- this explains why the company wants to increase underground capacity
- they are cutting down on cash cost, yet this does not seem to be at the expense of targets set, which include:
- further reserves expansion
- in particular from underground.
Doropo is just a minor consideration.
#CEY's improved geological model underpins a new robust 12yr mine schedule from which we have identified a clear roadmap to consistently producing +500koz of gold per annum.
https://twitter.com/centaminplc/status/1468581816353370119?s=12
I’d be gobsmacked of no one thought about maintenance and cleaning etc. Ping and email if you need clarity- this tech is changing all the time at a rapid rate.
I hadn't even thought of that one Razor, although an equally concerning question.
With regards to your faith that they've considered it all Tony, I wouldn't count on it. The first solar project I worked on (MEP Engineer) was in Saudi for a Hospital development. 10MW installed capacity, everyone thought meticulously about how it would be integrated with the grid, battery storage and backup, life safety backup for if it failed etc. In total it cost about £15m at the time (can't remember the exact figure and I've moved on since then).
Nobody thought about maintenance and cleaning. 1 year in they couldn't work out why they were getting >50% generating from the installed capacity. Turned out the panels were not being cleaned regularly, and from memory around half of them ended up getting replaced at cost!
Fine for rich Saudi billionaires who £10m is a drop in the ocean to, not so fine for us expecting a 16% reduction in fuel costs and for whom although not bank breaking, worst case scenario $37m is not a small number.
Funny Walshe I’ve had one question that’s been bugging me for some time, it’s nothing to do with the ongoing maintenance of the solar system but power storage capacity.
I think I heard Martin Horgan give a poor account to someone regarding same.
He mentioned 8 hours, I got the impression that they have no kilowatt storage batteries and that the power has to be used nearly as produced.
I perhaps should have asked for answers.
Walshe121
I believe there was an extensive evaluation of the issues before any money was spent on this and it was to go into a lot of detail. So I think its all considered. Reminds of the solar panels at Brighton University and nobody thought about the seagulls. Tony
One question I didn't ask as I thought it was probably not relevant to a life of mine review, was about the planned maintenance of the solar plant.
With Sukari being located in the Nubian Desert those panels are going to require daily maintenance to remove dust and ensure that they are operating at their optimum efficiency. if you look it up mainstream figures suggest you lose 1-2% a day from this, but I know from practice it can be anywhere between 1-10%, and if they aren't cleaned when required the dust bakes on and has to be removed via more intensive means. Add in dust storms which can abrade the panel surfaces and cause irreparable damage and you have a bit of a problem.
A problem at Sukari is that all of the (process) water to the mine is salinated, which cannot be used for solar panel cleaning (1. because its not suitable for the panels, and 2. because even if it was, the salt then dries to the panels defeating the object of it in the first place).
With this in mind, what is their cleaning and maintenance strategy for these panels. if it hasn't been thought about as nobody involved in the process (other than the people selling you the stuff) is in the know, we could have a $37m ornament (which sadly I find is what most of these projects end up as).
There are products out there that can negate (but not remove water usage no matter what they say https://www.nomaddesertsolar.com/the-desert-solar-challenge.html). I just hope these have been considered.
as for de-salinating water to use on these, it would be a net energy defecit to do so if using our own power.
Agree with Tibbs - The task of MH is to make the best of what there is, so let's wish him well in this regard. - Going forward, the conservative outlook and projected low-ball growth does make the SP extremely vulnerable to any set-back. Even the slightest hint could result in a disproportionate slide down the snake. - The low forward-projections offer/afford very little protection.- IMO. - Retention of dividend is a positive but it requires only to be invested at the time of the qualifying dates. - Whether it's worth hanging in there in between, presents as a big question now. - Again IMO. - As someone has already mentioned, this vulnerability keeps M&A alive and kicking.
I am staying with my core value of 118-120p. The reason for the AISC rise next year is a huge amount of drill results. The solar plant from memory cuts 1/6 of all fuel use. Centamin is forming a base where it goes up 10p for every $100 rise in the future gold price.
Should read 2024 play still 3 years away which is a long time and anything could happen
Share price always falls everytime there is an update or results see my previous posts re this and today is no diifferent
Broker upgrades a joke and only to be ignored
Running out of days for gold to be 2000 by the end of the year,but i suppose Maquire is still spouting it