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Hi Kando
Thank you from myself and on behalf of all the other members for compiling this information and posting it, just the type of post we need to get into the public domain to lift spirits and promote confidence in Centamin.
31/12/2013 - 14/3/2014 1201 -1379 = 14% gain
24/12/2014 - 20/1/2015 1173 -> 1300 = 10% gain
31/12/2015 - 11/2/2016 1060 -> 1247 = 17% gain
22/12/2016 - 27/2/2017 1128 -> 1257 = 11% gain
12/12/2017 - 25/1/2018 1238 -> 1362 = 10% gain
14/12/2018 - 20/2/2019 1237 -> 1343 = 8% gain
20/12/2019 - 24/2/2020 1474 -> 1672 = 13% gain
With respect Sotolo, you seem to have misread your charts. Only in 2021, when it was consolidating (into the aforementioned bull flag) after a massive 2 year bull run, did it have a flat month of january - although it did technically rise from 1775 to 1952 from the 30th of Nov to the 5th of January (a 9% rise), so make of that what you will, it did rally, just slightly earler than previous years. You can keep going back further than 2013, Gold routinely rallies ~10% in January. We're already off mid-December lows now at the end of December, all indications are this rally will likely carry on until February.
A 10% gain on December lows would put gold at $1938 in the next few months.
13/14% (like 2013/14 and 19/20) would put it at $2008.
17% (like 2015/16) would put it at $2061.
At any of those (potential) prices Cey (and in fact, most miners right now suffering from bond yield blues) are really excellent value right now. Cey would (likely) trade back in the 130s-140s at those margins.
2017, 19 and 21 gold didn’t have great first quarters; 2016 2018 and 2020 when it did it started the rise at the start of Dec, suggesting this may be another year without a first quarter rise.
If gold matches its average jan-march rally, it'll head back into 1900s, at which point Cent has scope to bounce around the 105-145 range. Still looks really swell value right now. Lower end 20% upside, upper only capped by the limits of FUD from the inflation narrative.
We'll see soon enough but gold is in a nice big bull flag just like Jan 08-Jun 09, an 18 month pause before the massive 150% 2 year rally. The current bull flag started forming 17 months ago in Aug 20, so I'd say it's about ripe to make its move.
Well my Xmas present was a book from one of my children.
"The City" by Tony Norfield. The City of course is in the larger city of London (deliberate small c, and the real City is the one which does all of the damage).
Long exposed as a tax haven of extraordiary proportions and the epicenter of the Wild Western Europe Financial circuit, I could thorughly recomend Tony's book, as one does get a clear sense of the games played, and how ethics doesnt (never did I suspect) live in the City. Built on the strained webs of empire, with rules and transparency out the door or window (whichever was closest), it does suggest how the UK, with its perpetual indecent trade imbalances, (etc) is counter balanced by the trade of the City!?
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/trade-balance-deficit
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/foreign-direct-investment
It does have some implications for gold, which are interesting, and the more people get educated the more they might appreciate the games. It does include the us$ and the beloved internatioal banking "system" and a lot more ...
None of games are to the long term sustainability of the global financial system, which is by design, unstable (to state the obvious)
So if the weather is not good and the family has given you a few hours off, then I would suggest a read.
best for the GOLDEN New Year
[ we are all getting locked up or out, run out of PCR tests, can't get results back from those tested, state boundaries are going up and down, quarantine periods are going down with every 50% increase in infections? and now sit at 5 days (in some states), and continually having the politicians talk of never ending pandedmic relief funding but otherwise the economy is booming? Strange world, next year will be better???)
the gnome...
Major European stock market indexes were in the red in the premarket on Wednesday, as Italy, the United Kingdom, Spain, and France saw record daily increases in COVID-19 cases the day prior.
Meanwhile, the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) warned that the Omicron variant of the virus could go undetected by antigen tests in certain cases.
The DAX dropped 0.93% at 8:02 am CET, while the CAC 40 lost 0.11% a minute later. The FTSE 100 was flat at the same time.
The euro and the pound both lost 0.1% compared to the dollar at 8:05 am CET, selling for 1.13010 and 1.34214, respectively.
Baha Breaking the News (BBN) / BU
As the "Christian" west is having a holiday, the east appears to be buying gold. Good news for Centamin and its shareholders.
Wish you all the best of Health, Love, Happiness and success for the holidays and the new Year.
God Bless you all,
Dan
Thankyou Burton for your post.
Doc Holiday comments on CEY
https://total-market-solutions.com/2021/12/guest-interview-vol-13-doc-holiday-part-2/
All the best Market and Miz - Agree about the blended whisky. - I like it in my coffee when I'm reading the longer compositions here - Tibbs - Nome - Cowichan et al. - Good luck.
Thanks mizolgit,Ratchett is like Attie Jaques in the carry on films telling me to put my money in the bank, and stop being up sneaking a drink and gambling on shares, Funny how life changes x
Market ,good to hear from you.
Happy New Year to you.
And of course your Nurse Ratchet, love that, keep in line ,ha ha ,
We all going to be foyunate to get the same, ;-).
Ask her for a tot of Famous Grouse ,not a pure Malt but a good blended Scotch.
The very best wishes from myself
Thank you Tibbs for your kind words, farther Christmas comes when you are older, people make a great effort to look after you. This board helps to keep my my ticking and not fold over so thanks again and Happy New Tear to all the mates I feel i Have on this board, Nurse Ratchet almost been broken
Mr Bond
That is astounding. The rumoured reports of Santa's demise in an air crash does not seem to be robust.
Good news for the grandchildren!! Flights will resume as soon as possible .. (love, Boris)
LOl
bring on the new year and the game ...
best ...
the gnome
For your sound advice and all you share with this forum.
Best wishes one and all in 2022!
Any one know the reason there far,far, less flights over Christmas Eve and day.
Think out of the box.
Its simple , Santa needs all the airspace. After all no one wants dead reindeer falling from the sky.,do they.
hi Mr Bond,
Also very fair comments Mr Bond.
Take care!
Tibbs
It takes a long time to repair confidence after the past vandelism at Centamin.
This CEO is gradually moving ,and planning the repairs, he may be getting 2 m a year ,yes ,but to take on the job and responsibility takes character, All I say is give a fair chance and time.
The vandelism was more than painting walls it took them years ,it often takes longer to repair.
Yes at times I am crotchety,I suspect not the only one of LTHs here ,so hardlly surprising I get ****ed off when I read negative not just you but traders eho get themselves unexpectedly trapped here and rant on.
When really they got themslves in the situation. Then thankfully p***s off.
Anyway enough of that, Don have a good break till after New Year.
Dont let your guard down with the virus.
My nephew this morning tested himself possitive, after 3 tests per day when at work, but feels OK.
Had a plumber in yesterday, possitive today.Take care all.
Agreed Robbie!
Hi Cowichan,
Mr Bond has also contributed a great deal to the forum and enlightened some of us about many aspects the mining industry.
I'm sure we all post something at sometime that someone finds annoying, certainly I'm as guilty as anyone else, although that's all part of freedom of opinion and free and open debate amongst friends and other forum members.
I remain in no doubt that the majority of long term members are completely justified in any criticism the past behaviour of the previous management which has left the share price in the bargain bucket shop for yet another festive season!
It's understandable that the Centamin BOD would prefer to move on, they are no doubt very much aware, hopefully embarrassed that they failed to ensure proper responsible and fit for purpose governance of Sukari from their comfy board room seats in Jersey.
How many times in the past did Pardey promise that "lessons had been learned! after yet another Sukari balls up had necessitated an RNS warning that the promised guidance wouldn't be achieved, I've lost count!
But it is apparent now that despite those warning signs and the published articles warning that all was'nt as well as claimed at Sukari the BOD sat on their hands when they should have kicked ar(ses down the road and brought in new competent management,
In many respects long term share holders were treated like mushrooms "kept in the dark" whilst their trust was taken for granted and even betrayed!
I appreciate in many respects this is going over old events, but that said all the more reason to remind share holders that behaving like mushrooms has done them no favours in the past.quite the contrary!
That said I feel confident that Martin Horgan is determined to put things right and appreciates that although you offer constructive criticism at time's, you also promote many of the positive aspect's about Centamin that otherwise some share holders wouldn't be aware of.
Lets hope for some real tangible results rather than just promises in 2022!
Happy Christmas to you and your family!
Tibbs
Cowichan,
Just say it as it is.
Mr Hogan is being paid £2million plus a year tax free and owns 45,000 shares. He`s a big boy and needs to know how shareholders feel.
Happy Christmas and a very happy new year to you Market!
So glad that you popped in this morning!
Hope you manage to get a few tot's during the festive celebrations!
Keep well!
Best Wishes
Tibbs
Good xmas to all and a happy prosperous New Year