Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
"Our policy is to treat all shareholders equally. Therefore, we do not hold discussions with analysts nor large institutions. Whenever possible, also, we release important communications on Saturday mornings in order to maximize the time for shareholders and the media to absorb the news before markets open on Monday."
------------------------->>>
My Thoughts:
The rather new phenomenon of ESG manifestos - or the practice where companies toot their horns about how 'woke' they are - doesn't hold a candle to that short & simple Berkshire policy
Such a policy is the necessary foundation of shareholder engagement and accountability upon which all ESG frameworks can then be built
PS --> Centamin BOD's - this would be a HIGHLY beneficial policy to adopt if you are serious in regaining shareholder trust
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/26/read-warren-buffetts-annual-letter-to-berkshire-hathaway-shareholders.html
Again ,very interesting.
Thanks Tibbs ,now subscribed.
I totally agree with Andrew, and no it is not diffivcultto understand. The system is crooked.
Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire digs deep into the current geopolitical escalation in Ukraine, thoroughly explaining the impact on the gold and silver market.
The precious metals expert drills down into the widening divide between the BIS and the US policies, weighing up the physical and paper gold markets. Are there enough ingredients for the bullish gold and silver rally to unfold?
00:00 Start
01:25 Basel III & paper vs physical gold battle
09:45 What is Andy seeing in the market right now?
14:20 The stair-step approach for buying gold and silver
20:00 Geopolitical drivers & their effect on the gold market
24:00 Silver prices vs. Bank of America derivative position
31:15 The BIS and the US divide
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IMTqyphXaKA
Latin Americans holding Casino Chips as a hedge against inflation!
Feat. Atlas Group partners & Kinesis’ Head of Operations in Latin America
In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire is joined by three experts in the LatAm precious metals space - Alejandro Kapetanakis, Carlos Alfredo Lao and Martín Aguilar - to contemplate spiralling inflation in the region.
As precious metals industry leaders in Latin America, the trio enlightens Andrew Maguire on the global scale of the inflation problem and presents physical gold as the stable monetary solution for local citizens.
00:00 Start
02:35 The hyperinflation in the Latin America region
05:15 How close are Panama and America?
09:15 The monetary solution for Latin America
13:35 Being your own central bank
15:00 Why Atlas Vaults are located so close to America?
17:00 The importance of tangible assets! Carlos’ experience in Greece 2014
21:05 Underbanked, unbanked & underpaid
22:00 A universal solution for which everyone qualifies
24:30 What is the future of money in South America?
28:45 Martin Aguilar's final words to the community
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jiuV-xU9Po4
When they apply basel III requirements on banks is when it will stop if they implement it.
Comex leverage rates paper to gold 20:1 2011, 54:1 2013, 542:1 in January 2016. I read somewhere on Kitco comments of someone saying it was now 15,000:1 as we leave behind the pandemic a few months back.
When will it stop?
Today is Gold Options renewal Day.
But a Commentator on Kitco predicts the same for the rest of the year.
Due to Trading and selling of Gold Paper Futures.
l
Just a thought: - I have a feeling we might see some 'Default' news breaking. - The volatility in Gold/Silver is indicative of a battle being fought. - IMO -
What reason why this down so much when gold up?
The avergae punter maynot keep track of the strategic assets of nations ... worth a look and a thought ,....
Metallic minerals?
7th place in the world in iron extraction: 39 M tonnes and 2.4% of global output (after Australia, China, Brazil, India, Russia and RSA)
8th place in the world in manganese extraction: 651 thousand tonnes and 3.6% of global output (after RSA, Australia, China, Gabon, Brazil, Ghana and India)
6th place in the world in titanium extraction: 431 thousand tonnes and 6.3% of global output (after China, RSA, Australia, Canada ? Mozambique)
2nd place in the world in gallium extraction: 9 tonnes and 2.9% of global output (after China)
5th place in the world in germanium extraction: 1 tonne and 1% of global output (after China, Russia, USA and Japan)
Non-metallic minerals
6th place in the world in kaolins extraction: 2,4 M tonnes and 5,9% of global output (after China, USA, Germany, India and Czech Republic)
10th place in the world in zirconium silicate extraction: 26 thousand tonnes and 1,9% of global output (after Australia, RSA, China, Mozambique, Senegal, USA, Kenia, India and Indonesia)
8th place in the world in graphite extraction: 13 thousand tonnes and 1.3% of global output (after China, Brazil, North Korea, India, Russia, Canada and Madagascar)
Mineral fuels
13th place in the world in power plant coal extraction: 18,9 M tonnes and 0,4% of global output (after China, India, USA, Indonesia, Australia, RSA, Russia, Colombia, Kazakhstan, Poland, Vietnam and Canada)
12th place in the world in coking coal extraction: 5,2 M tonnes and 0,5% of global output (after China, Australia, Russia, USA, India, Canada, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Poland, Mozambique and Colombia)
10th place in the world in uranium extraction: 1 tonne and 1,4% of global output (after Kazakhstan, Canada, Australia, Namibia, Niger, Uzbekistan, Russia, China and USA)..Uranium source for Europe, sounds good? Low carbon..etc ...
In recent years, the Government significantly improved and liberalized the system of granting permits for extraction of minerals. Moreover, the State Service of Geology and Subsoil of Ukraine presented an Investment Atlas of Subsoil Management, which comprises over 140 fields to be set for electronic auctions in the nearest future.
Great weather for natural resources, oddly enough
best
the gnome
Raining cats and dogs in Brisbane. Couldn't even see the road that I was driving on...LOL
The other weather is great for gold and certain real assets ...
“There have historically been few asset classes that have been effective hedges against geopolitical risk, although gold has been one of them, along with the [US] dollar.” (and we all know about the Us$ ? ..."here a $, there a $, everywhere a $, old Macdonald had a farm ... etc )
Gold spurted higher to trade at levels not seen in more than a year, and has added 7 per cent this month.
US Federal Reserve officials indicated on Thursday that the central bank would likely press ahead with an interest rate rise at its March meeting, despite any potential hit to the global economy from Russia’s military action in Ukraine. and what would you expect, totally out of tune ...
Sanctions imposed by Western powers so far have avoided gas exports, given their strategic importance to Europe, although Germany decided it would cancel the certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which circumvents Ukraine...nearly always a bit of oil and gas in the mix of any conflict?
The combination of tight inventory and low spare production capacity across the commodities complex means small disruptions could have outsized impacts on prices in the near term, Goldman Sachs analysts warned.
AND HOW WOULD YOU GUESS IT? ! Ukraine has extremely rich and complementary mineral resources in high concentrations and close proximity to each other. The country has abundant reserves of coal, iron ore, natural gas, manganese, salt, oil, graphite, sulfur, kaolin, titanium, nickel, magnesium, timber, and mercury.
Could it solve a lot of Europes issues about accessing natural resources? They do not want to mine in their own backyard. Dirty stuff. We are developed nations with civilised peoples. And they cannot complete against China in Africa.
the gnome
Major indexes in Europe traded higher in the premarket on Friday amid the ongoing deterioration of the situation in Ukraine. European leaders have continued to condemn Russia's attack on Ukraine as more sanctions are applied.
The DAX gained 1.44% at 8:09 am CET, while the CAC 40 added 1.42%, and the FTSE 100 rose by 1.05%.
The euro was flat against the dollar at 8:08 am CET, selling for $1.11989. In comparison, the pound grew by 0.18% to go for $1.34140 at the same time.
Baha Breaking the News (BBN) / JGA
Have a peaceful weekend y’al
Pretty good there so far Bob- recovered to 1915 as I type, so could get there as Asia and Europe uptick on futures(nearly always follow US), although US futures back down a little.
We are a stock so rise in FTSE generally helps CEY and sentiment on gold direction impacts mostly- yesterday at close was about 1920 but on downward trajectory, now is only 4 off this and on an upward trajectory... for now...
Choppy times though and not easy to trade it- sometimes, like with my other stocks, I simply hold in extremely choppy times- you can lose on spread when trying to second guess, plus all my feeds I know are crucially slightly behind (99.99999% of people's are- that's the market).
Golf tee off at 08:00 for me today, GLA today.
Some good points Cowichan. When the pit wall fails they obviously have to change their mine plan immediately (all hands on deck, think panic), and depending on whether what "fell in", is ore or waste or of intermediatry value, it can have different effects on AISC, head grade etc. Lets just say things are muddied and mixed somewhat. They would announce the new plan, which is what they did in their presentations including the Jan 2022 presentation. Investors should look at the ounces produced prediction, and predictions on strip ratio, AISC's etc. This is what dicates the margins, profitability etc. .. as well as the price of gold (!!, anyone got it right so far?)...
I like the figures they present, and this is what they will be held to account on. Slide 24 on the Jan presentation is one to look at. This year they are predicting higher AISC, and thank goodness for the global instability (sad comment), the gold price could exceed the cost increases, and the margins could be healthier than predicted. After, 2023 on, gut feel is CEY will be a cash cow again.
Very interested in the reource to reserve conversion underground, of 45%. I am ot sure what the assumption is here, but I think there are a number of large mining companies who might seriously disagree with this conservative assumption.
Gold, no debt, no hedge, no royatlies, no streaming with a healthy social license to operate, is a great place to be.
I hope the CEO is getting soid support from his Board of Directors. I still think they need to some real experience depth on the noard, and now would be a great deal. Real exploration knowldege and experience, real open pit and underground mining experience. Be great time for a coup I think, to many free lunches
best
the gnome
Watching gold over many years (sadly almost a hobby) there are 2 or possibly 3 trigger investors in the mix. The first are the short termers possibly milliseconds on a repetitive basis scalping a fraction percentage , you need the algorithm and technology to compete at this level. secondly the very wise traders operating on head levels and taking both short and long levels on an averaging basis hoping for a 51+ plus position, and the long term trader operating on geopolitical and general market information. On that basis sectors 1 and 2 will cause wild fluctuations whilst sector 3 will underline the base commodity price. This is what we are seeing now. The underlying sector will average out and an average will arise whereby the merry go round will occur again from that base. Neck on the block gold at about 1928 -35 tomorrow.
However dont bet the house on it as just my amateur view and a bit of light thought in these dire times.
Bob
All good points.
Yes, the board include people present when previous management made bad decisions. Guess I'm happy with current management (why I stayinvested) until I see a mis-step.
Gold has stopped dropping for now seems to be recovering a bit (fingers crossed, touch wood)- a good proxy is Barrick and newmont on US indices - they are down but off their earlier lows. Futures are up indices so good for other stocks- let’s hope this holds and gold keeps climbing back- the nights are long…
Will probably be a harsh day tomorrow...cey loves going down far more than going up
What a turn around...over 3% up to over 1% down in less than 8 hours
On the day when WW3 is being talked about, gold and silver are now underwater on the day. - I think this phenomena says it all.
Mr Blofeld wins again, moreover, he can't be defeated. - Is it any wonder that World-Wars are on the agenda.
In the title!
Many thanks to Cowichan for highlighting the seismic survey. I've enjoyed following the links and looking at the company and other case studies. I was a researcher into seismic rock properties for about 10 years and their applications to interpretation of borehole and surface seismic surveys.
My take on what I've read:
The survey undertaken ( under previous managent) was well designed as a test of the methods (by HiSeis). Representative rock types were collected and seismic properties measured. 2-d lines over known geology were collected and the seismic response 'inverted' (technical term) into rock properties. The test showed that imaging was good, and inference about rock types consistent with reality.
Management decided not to go to a (expensive?) 3-d survey, which is likely a reasonable decision. Given the need for direct drilling to prove reserves, it is likely a reasonable decision by the new management to prioritise the current drilling and put any 3-d imaging on a back-burner.
Or they might be trying to pull a fast one on investors ... I don't get that impression, but I might be an innocent about company politics.
Thanks for the input Softrock!
Your back of the envelope figures are helpful - but would be all the more helpful if Centamin provided the figures.
What if it only adds 40k ounces per year extra - or 30k ounces - or less?
What if the waste clearance could have been undertaken albeit at a slower pace but far cheaper using Centamin's own fleet? What would the cost comparison/advantage look like?
Shareholders should be privy to real data points. But alas we are kept in the dark.
Trusting Centamin's BOD to do the smart thing hasn't been a winning bet as the drip, drip, drip downward flow of the share price proves.
Interesting question about justifying the cost of the waste clearance. Need to re-read what was said about it to justify it at the time.
But how about a back of the envelope sum? Say waste clearance leads to 80000 more oz of gold a year. Say $500-800 profit on each oz. Then $40-60m a year benefit of the waste strip contract, and payback over 4-6 years. I think my assumptions are 'worst case' on the benefits. We are told the waste strip sets up Sukari to produce for at least another 10 years at over 500000 oz a year.
Martin Horgan answered a direct question about the pit wall movement at one of his presentations. He said that the danger to the pit wall had been addressed and was no longer an issue. From memory this was within six months of the movement being detected.
The pit wall danger did cause higher grade ore in the open pit to become inaccessible for mining and so hit production forecast. As I understand it, it was the impact on production which highlighted the need for the massive waste clearance so as to reintroduce flexibility and predictable continuity of production zones for the future. Waste clearance was not to remediate the pit wall movement.
One of the features of Horgan's manager to date has been to have a thorough review of the mining practice and mining team. Being a former academic geologist/geophysicist I am particularly impressed by the bottom up geological evaluation of Sukari and surrounds presented late last year. Tough decisions have been made and a clear production plan laid out for the mid-term. The plan flags up potential for upside.
So my take on it is no they did not make a big deal of the pit wall movement. The market quite rightly did make a big deal of the expensive waste stripping, and management have been clear about the consequences of that decision.
Management have been clear about a sea change to reliability of production forecasts following the change to production drilling - another important change made by Horgan's management.
Personally I see the RNs and presentation on production planning we had recently as much more important than some specific detail about whether production has resumed below the site of the pit wall movement. Though perhaps an enquiry might get an answer?
As I have learnt more about events under previous management, I share concerns highlighted here esp. by Cowichan about legacy issues from that era.