Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
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Hi Dasut,
If you recall thr LHDR wasn't the cause of the crisis , it was the hitting of unexpected low grades, in the open pit which in fact Pardey was made aware of two years previously. but he denied it and carried on glossing over the cracks by high grading.
It was just unfortunate that the LHDR decided to self destruct at the same time they hit the low grades in the open pit meaning that they couldn't supplement i the lower open pit output from the underground,
I understand your point about it not being cost effective to have a second LHDR on site, however that is assuming that the operation was being run properly, which we now know it wasn't, so considering what we know now and the amount of money the BOD has squandered elsewhere I feel the cost of a LHDR pales into insignificance!
However all these issues aside which I agree we have different opinions on, the simple fact is that Pardey lied, not just once, but on many occasions!
March 30, 2022
*Aton is pleased to be in close contact with many of the majors who have already or are looking to enter the Egyptian exploration sector.
**We are also very confident that @MOPEgypt and EMRA will be taking note of the concerns of the industry, with regards to the terms of exploration concessions, both old and new, and particularly with the mechanism for transferring from the exploration phase to #mining, which was so clearly flagged up as a critical risk in Egypt during #EIMS2022
https://twitter.com/AtonResources/status/1509141942705307652
-------------------------------->>>
My Thoughts:
* in reference to 'many of the majors' - is that just hype or are they really in close contact with more than the few we know about?
** Clearly Aton prefers to migrate to the new terms in advance of developing its Hamama resource — and that despite Mr Horgan's recent comments stating the new tax/royalty vs old profit share terms are 'as similar' as to be negligible
Hi Dusut,
I too recall some media reports naming Capital for the underground mess up, absolutely wrong as you say nothing to do with Capital.
One of our forum members and former share holder lives in Jersey, he certainly didn't have a very high opinion of Pardey or his professional abilities, in fact he sold a very considerable Centamin share holding because he felt Pardey was way out of his depth and wasn't being honest with shareholders!
This former share holder said that Pardey certainly spent far too much time away from mining operations and that Youssef was regarded as a clown by most staff and he was disliked by certain members of the Egyptian government.
Sorry Tibbs got called to sort something out I will continue . I agree completely about the underground being not treated as seriously as the open pit back then but it was the major cut back not the LHDR that caused the shortage of ounces and the more I think about it the more it makes sense that they were following the grade and jumped on the issue on hand at the time rather than the larger picture. Namely blame the contractor and the LHDR not that we have backed ourselves into a corner and need to clear some waste to mine some ore.
I remember reading that the blame was Capital they couldn't even get the contractor right and I suppose because it was a rig they immediately thought it was something to do with a drilling contract.
Too much fake news back in history and as I say can't do anything about history have to focus on the here and now and hopefully this will shape the future for all of us.
halfpenny I hope I am wrong about the first quarter numbers that we will shortly be receiving but it will take a very strong wind and a tap into a bonanza grade to show a profit, unfortunately the strip ratio waste to ore and to ounces don't compute.
Pardey wasn't walking about on site he was sitting in Jersey and because of a shortage of any underground mining experience in Egypt is the reason why the contract was contracted out in the first place.
Hopefully the situation has changed and there is now plenty of inhouse expertise otherwise its here we go again the blind leading the blind.
As halfpenny says be confident and retain the faith and the new management and the team at the face.
I wouldn't count on any weakness anytime soon.
Tibbs LHDR was seriously bad luck and only glad that it wasn't one of the large loaders in the open pit because that was where the real work was going on. I don't get and never did get why the LHDR was the cause of the crisis at the time. Unfortunately all mechanical things break and I have said so many times you can't have two of everything on site. It doesn't make financial sense.
halfpenny agreed that the second half of the year should be good but in the meantime the numbers I don't think are going to help maintain the SP and all I was saying is that the sellers could get the opportunity to jump back in.
While the company does have a high rate of return, its low earnings retention is probably what's hampering its earnings growth.
https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/materials/lse-cey/centamin-shares/news/centamin-plcs-loncey-financials-are-too-obscure-to-link-with
Thank you Dasut,
You will no doubt recall the 2018 fiasco when somebody forgot to ensure that there was a credible contingent plan in place should the sole underground LHDR have problems,{i.e. either critical spare parts to hand, or access to essential spares within a tight time frame, or reserve LHDR).
Shortly after the aforementioned Sukari guidance cut I had the opportunity to ask someone professionally involved in the mining industry who had just returned from Cairo what they felt had gone wrong at Sukari.
My acquaintance explained that underground mining production at Sukari and certainly in Eygpt at that time wasn't regarded as seriously the open pit method which was the normal and preferred method of mining, they went onto say that due to this there seemed to be a lack of suitably qualified and experienced underground mining professionals in Eygpt at that time.
I asked if Andrew Pardey shouldn't have overseen the underground contractor more closely, they replied,yes certainly, but the person doing the overseeing has to know the job and what needs to be done, and also be able to motivate their subordinates, there are some willing site workers at Sukari, but they need the right guidance and direction and that doesn't seem to be that evident at the present!
So here we are in 2022 and it seems that Martin Horgan is at the very least addressing the previous shortage of mining expertise in key management areas including bringing underground operations directly under inhouse control!
That maybe but ounces are rising quarter on quarter, just look at the figures, and they are expecting a bumper 2nd half of the year, what's not to like?
halfpenny the year end report and the retail presentation tells us that production levels for first half year will be 45% of annual target with second half 55%. The impact of the cost of the waste removal contract plus other fixed costs will therefore be more expensive in comparative terms.
If the increased quarterly production figures follow on from last year then 2022 Q1 is looking good.
If the increased quarterly production figures follow on from last year then 2022 Q1 is looking good.
Sotolo yes I do see a rosy future but I will add caveats that there are numerous risks or impacts that can turn my optimism and these are all dependant on management taking the right decisions.
IMO it is imperative that additional mines come on stream over the next 18 months, coupled with ending the necessary but expensive muck shifting contract ( wouldn't it be excellent if they find something interesting in close proximity that could allow utilising the already available in country fleet of equipment, sorry getting a bit too optimistic). The move to underground owner mining has to be a success quickly and I mean over the coming few months so not throwing a curve ball that could set us back.
Like you I like the idea of introducing solar power and this will help considerably in powering static plant and mine site facilities.
We also need to see something of a return when offloading Batie West and timing is crucial.
My reason for optimism is Horgan's team but they are still in the talk the talk stage and we are still a way off the achievement bonus level.
Tibbs I think we need to wait to see if Cleopatra is part of the major waste cut back to be incorporated into the larger pit and as I read it the bonanza grades are also if not mainly open pit related.
You call them pull backs I call them unplanned necessary realignment strategies but of all of the decisions made in recent months the one that worries me is moving to owner mining the underground resources. I don't like taking on a used fleet of equipment and this "don't like" can be multiplied 4 times for underground machines that have thousands of hours on the clock.
Time will tell and as I have said previously I can't allow myself to dwell on what has happened in the past and I am sure there are many share holders who benefitted when the SP broke the £2 mark. I for one missed out as my sell instruction was a few pence higher than the peak.
Underground contribution is relatively small at the moment so they have time to grow into the job but on the other hand this change is being used as the reason why the first half will be down on ounces??
Good news Cowichan!
Possibly the Egyptian central bank thinks the POG will rise as some predict?
Hi Dasut,
I am very much inclined to agree with your opinion on this. it's good to see some optimism from halfpenny and others as well though and baring any unforeseen mishaps if all goes as Martin Horgan plans then after possibly some more pull backs the recovery will eventually come late this, or get under way early next year!
Lets hope that there is some some news on the underground Bonanza grades which may help boost sentiment!
What on earth was Pardey playing at with the Cleopatra slope, seems to have been a complete but very costly shambolic fiasco that went from bad to worse!
My word that last Sukari management made a pretty through job of messing up the show!
Sotolo , Just for you!
My Word! You Do Look Queer · Weston · Lee · Stanley Holloway
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXEAVI7p_co
Could see hold back above $2000 before long with nice boost to sp
Getting left behind?
Some they do as the share price is moving into 98p
A much stronger order book on the bid side for the last 15 minutes
Gold price at $1975 +9.30
Dasut, first thanks so much for the knowledge you bring that I much appreciate, second I like you believe that we are getting nearer to better times. Costs will be ghastly but solar should begin to help bit later in the year, and if investors can see a better second half with improved ounces, more important the end of the huge extra costs of this year and last, and a great 2023, and IF gold makes a new all time high, then we may not see 90 again for quite a while so I too am holding, including the extra I bought around 90. Even though a lot of IFS and ANDS!
halfpenny as someone who is holding I hope you are right but I think we need to hold our breath as can't see that there will be much if any good news over the coming few weeks as if production is down which is predicted you can guarantee costs will be high and we will be seeing a financial loss. Will gold price help to offset the not so good news I doubt it but at the same time I am hoping the impact on the SP will be marginal and short lived.
We all know that production will be down and we are looking at a slow first half and stronger second half but this doesn't normally prevent a fall.
So the sellers may well be in with a good chance of the 80's.
Many who sold here for a few percent profit lately will be desperate to see the sp back in the 80's to get back in but doubt that's going to occur you've probably missed lows. War will go on for foreseeable future as will inflation and centamin going forward on the front foot the sp will be going from strength to strength.
Major stock indexes in Europe traded mostly lower in the premarket session on Wednesday as investors followed the latest developments in Ukraine. Shareholders also awaited the key economic data on British inflation set for release later today.
Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky offered to release Moscow's top ally from captivity, in exchange for prisoners. Russian President Vladimir Putin noted it was "impossible to achieve progress" with Kiev as they are inconsistent in negotiations.
The DAX fell by 0.27% at 7:06 am CET. London's FTSE 100 and The CAC 40 were flat at the same time.
The euro was flat against the dollar to sell for 1.08339 at 7:29 am CET, while the pound also stood unchanged at $1.30028.
Baha Breaking the News (BBN) / AB
Happy hump y’al