The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Hi 2phevs
Thanks for posting. I would however caution that the first article looks AI generated and the second one does not say much.
Nevertheless it is clearly good that we are getting some positive exposure in these difficult times.
Having held for a number of years I guess my current view on CEY can be summed up as follows:
1. I believe we are at the nadir in terms of high costs/ low production and the investment over the first few years of Martin H's tenure should see, all other things being equal, production move back up towards 500k p.a and AISC fall.
2. However I am nervous about the impact of inflation generally and fuel inflation in particular. We are very large fuel users, albeit the solar panel project, has come at a very opportune time to off-set some of that. Nevertheless I worry about the impact on our AISC despite my positive comment in point 1 above.
3. Gold price. Well obviously this is one of the three key variable (along with AISC and oz produced). And it is difficult to call. High inflation is typically associated with high gold prices however high interest rates make the cost of holding a none income producing asset like gold. Also at present the dollar is on a tear and that is putting enormous pressure on the price of gold.
So at present I am a bit like a rabbit caught in the headlights, not knowing which way to turn.
Best wishes,
Prof
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/why-shares-centamin-may-able-132032010.html
https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://stocknews.com/news/cgau-celtf-ngd-3-gold-mining-stocks-to-buy-in-may-centerra-centamin/&ct=ga&cd=CAEYACoTOTIyMDM2MDc4MTA4MDI2MzgyMzIcMGIyNWQ3NmJmMjNkZGJjMjpjby51azplbjpHQg&usg=AOvVaw3zDJLHVHTVeiJ-q1rbQai2
Equities in Europe traded higher in the premarket on Friday after Finland announced its intention to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to positive reactions from the European Union's members such as Germany and Denmark. Meanwhile, the United States Senate reconfirmed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair.
Investors also kept an eye on the global economy's response to the newest developments regarding Russia's military operation in Ukraine while preparing for the latest report on industrial production in the euro area.
The DAX advanced by 1.36% at 8:01 am CET. At the same time, the FTSE 100 rose by 1.11%, while the CAC 40 grew by 0.37%.
The euro gained 0.18% to the dollar at 8:01 am CET, selling for $109.11, while the pound sterling increased by 0.20% to the greenback to go for $1.22245.
Baha Breaking the News (BBN) / JR
*The unexpected is bound to happen while the anticipated may never come.
Have a good weekend y’al
Warren Buffett once said that it is wise for investors to be “fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”
good luck all... Let's invade Finland!
Western pressure on Russia over the invasion of Ukraine lowered the country’s crude-oil output by 9% in April and reshaped the global oil market as Russia sought new buyers for its production outside the West, the International Energy Agency said.. so just who benefits...Saudi Arabia and the good ol US of A..funny about that?
the gnome
Thank you Cowichan, j Centamin need promote this more!
indeed so prof, as I posted on Hoc board this morning, gold for these sterling quoted miners should always be considered in sterling. However our sterling costs have risen so fast they are probably now £1250 or more per ounce compare to £600m not so long ago, which just leaves somewhere a bit over £200 an ounce profit, or £100 after profit share and royalty which on our paltry production is now not must more than £40m and falling, compared to $153m last year and $315m the year before, so our share price deserves to be quite a bit lower and is only holding up in the hope the mine gets costs back down, but that aint so easy now. imho
Thursday, 5/12/2022 15:31
BUY GOLD prices held above yesterday's new 13-week lows against a surging US Dollar in London trade Thursday as global stock markets sank again, commodities slipped, and so-called cryptocurrencies crashed amid the worst inflation in 4 decades and the steepest US Fed rate hikes in 2.
Regularly promoted as "digital gold" since its invention in 2009, original crypto Bitcoin today sank towards $25,000 per unit – its cheapest since Christmas Day 2020 and down 61.7% from last November's record high.
Shares in crypto exchange Coinbase (Nasdaq: COIN) sank to new all-time lows after it warned that customers will become "general unsecured creditors" with no direct claims on the digital assets it holds in the event it declares bankruptcy.
Crypto-promoter Michael Saylor's tech business MicroStrategy (Nasdaq: MSTR) meantime sank back to pre-2021 spike prices after he offered to pledge some of the company's $3.3bn in current Bitcoin holdings against its $2.4bn in debt.
The Dollar has actually gained quite a bit since [Wednesday's] CPI print and that's prohibiting gold from making gains."
https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/buy-gold-crypto-051220222
* Feb 2017
Re - removal of fuel subsidy – Centamin may have won the dispute by now?
The International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) had ruled in March 2017 that Egypt’s revocation of the tax exemption status of the EMG project until 2025 afforded to it under the private free zones system to be tantamount to expropriation and in breach of the bilateral investment treaty.
Did an Egyptian court really order EGPC and EGAS to pay EMG founder USD 1.03 bn in damages?
Israeli newspaper Globes is claiming that a Cairo court ordered state energy companies EGPC and EGAS to pay Israeli businessman Josef Maiman, who co-founded East Mediterranean Gas (EMG) with Hussein Salim, USD 1.03 bn in damages after EMG was forced to halt shipments of gas to Israeli Electric back in 2013.
http://www.globes.co.il/en/article-egyptian-court-rules-gas-cos-must-pay-emg-$1033b-1001224254
Many long term share holders are of the same opinion in that Centamin appears to has been extremely passive in its stance against the court case, including the diesel fuel subsidy dispute,
I appreciate it was a case involving EMRA rather than Centamin directly, nevertheless, the pain and punishment has been felt solely by Centamin and its shareholders.
Centamin must have a case to bring, which, like the case just highlighted above involves the pursuit of damages?
All share holders have really had had for six years is an annual almost cut and paste statement that says “Proceeding could be lengthy.”
Lengthy indeed, even allowing for the fact that this is Egypt !
Isn’t it time that Centamins legal team were more proactive on these issues?
Diesel fuel case
Points to consider from a well informed Egyptian friend
As the agreement between the Egyptian government and Centamin is based on law 222 year 1994, so it does not fall under the same laws as other investment projects.
-The agreement clearly states that the investor has the rights to recover any operational costs and expenses, and that includes fuel obtained at any price.
-The company, incorrectly and against the agreement, was supplied with subsidized fuel, but that does not give the investor any right or legal position.
To my knowledge It has never been argued that the investor has any right or legal position , it is only Centamin the concession partner and mine operator. who has any right or claim.
I fail to see how supplying fuel to a government/Centamin partnership Sukari at the subsidised price is favouritism in fact it might be argued that it s beneficial to EMRA & Egypt because Centamin will not be claiming as much initial capex costs back from before commencement of profit share
However surely the administrative error allowing fuel at subsidised rates lies with EMRA or the supplier, not with Centamin.
Although whether the fuel supplied is subsidised or not is irrelevant as in the paragraph above It states "fuel bought at any price can be claimed back" so that would include the international price" for fuel since January 2012 $22 million
Perhaps this is why no provision has been made by CEY in the company accounts for the $22 million?
Recovery of all Capex by Centamin was agreed with EMRA before profit share would start.
Also should not a percentage if not all of diesel bought at any price be reclaimable by Centamin against future Sukari AISC?
Very fair observations in my opinion!
A glorious story that has to be told and spread far and wide
Invaders had designs on that mine , but they never could finish its good
And so it's stayed there , a hidden treasure for the Egyptians to dig out
And finally arrived those who prospect for gold , in that golden spot of Egypt's land
Egypt witnesses an engineering and technical miracle
without much work, effort and conscious national investment
We blow up the ground daily and we transform these giant rocks into dust
without shouldering the state any costs
in a race against time, like a giant bee hive , you can see harmony
that gets the best out of those real life heroes
our heroes will put up with cruel temperatures, pressure and humidity
we'll get to unprecedented depths — 250 meters deep , or even more
these great men will be face to face with many dangers , nevertheless
(bla, bla, bla, bla etc. and so forth.... fast forward to the end)
Why would we leave our Egyptian gold hidden , when we stand ready
for digging it out ?
And after achieving the impossible , in (redacted) mine
why would we content ourselves
with only one gold mine ? (fade to black)
--------------------------------->>>
Still don't know what I'm droning on about? Al Sukary - Egypt's Mountain of Gold of course!
Have a look at the slo-mo & drone footage below (it's actually quite good - filmed last year)
Special thanks to General Yasser Lamada , Mr Shady El Raghy (Shadi Al-Rajhi), Colonel Malek Mohamed & Ahmed El Shahat
https://youtu.be/baEr-gNml7c
No Problem Auson,
Yo may recall the the last year at one of the Q & A sessions Ross Jerrard was asked by one of the analysts if Centamin hedged its diesel prices and Jerrard said it didn't.
This is why I keep asking about a resolution on the outstanding and withdrawn diesel price subsidy which was and still is part of the original agreement despite its withdrawal!
Well even if the diesel subsidy is not reinstated there is still $20mmillion owed to Centamin by the EMRA prior to its withdrawal.
Other companies hare gone to the international courts over similar issues and Egypt has been forced to pay u
When asked if Centamin had ever considered going to the international court Ross Jerrard replied that he supposed they could have done, but didn't!
Centamin actually paid EMRA in advance of profit share starting because the government was strapped for cash, when profit share started EMRA could have paid the outstanding diesel subsidy back by now by installments, but it didn't!
Centamin has gone over and above what it is required to do under the concession agreement and yet the directors seem reluctant or afraid to ask why the Egyptian government can't at least reciprocate in some way by chivvying along getting a ruling on a farce of a court case !
Fire sale tomorrow?
ElProfessor,
12 month low £1244.60 12 month high £1553.35, current price £1497.53. Centamin's market cap should really be valued in USD so I guess its just a sentiment thing when gold price is falling.
It's all OK anyway...the further it goes the more feul it will add to the run that is coming...its the elastic band effect
Also I would like to think that by London opening POG might be close to the 1836 or London close. Not always be often it seems to do that regardless of what it does when London is closed.
Interestingly if you look at gold in GBP you get a very different picture. We are still hovering around £1,500 per ounce which is historically very good.
Gold at 1820...looks like cey will break its 5 year low tomorrow. Tin hats on boys and girls, could be messy for a few days
Thanks mrtibbles,
That does seem to match the US at the pump diesel price in 2020, I thought we might be a bit more insulated than that.
Last time I inquired in April 2020 Centamin had a flexible contract with EGPC, which had a set diesel price on a quarter by quarter basis, it was also based on the international price - to some extent!
As we know is a lot of concern in the market about the impact of fuel pricing on cash costs - the model Centamin used in 2020 had costed diesel @$0.60 per litre.
Q1 2022 higher fuel costs to the value of US$23 million!
Thanks for your replies Mr T.
I know Egypt havent really put anything into Centamin but they get a cut of the profits. You would have thought they would have had an expert of their own who could have --and still could--go into Sukari and see what is / has been going on. For what it would have cost them, the would have got their small investment back many times over. Ok we might have had less gold mined previously but it would have been at a steadier rate and without the C-ap of cleaning up the mess the last lot left.
I suppose now legal action will have been taken as it would have caused an even bigger crash in share price that we have had , so the culprits got off free and with money in their pockets.
Times flies. it is coming up to 3 years since Sotolo predicted the share price was going up to £3 --------and we know what happened after that.
I try and stay positive. If the share price is around this price rather than 90-95p then we will get more share with our reinvested dividends. However, at some point we will need a bigger dividend and a higher share price to make it seem worthwhile.
Maybe it is me getting older and grumpier, but the share price always seems to go up between ex dividend date and the date the dividend is reinvested-------then it goes down. it also seems that with every bit of news that Centamin release , that the share price goes down. Maybe we need less news!
Re the food banks etc. Some people do not know how to cut back and economise, but there are people who do and have been doing it. If you are already buying basics in the cheaper places, how much more can you cut back? How much more can you turn the thermostat down? What if you leave the curtains open when it is sunny?
I really fear for a lot of people later on this year. Im fully expecting the announcement " dont worry about your fuel bills, keep warm and sort it out in the spring"
Bit political here Mr T --but after the Queens Jubilee, I dont think we have any Royals who can get married , which they always seem to do to "cheer up" the rest of us when times are hard.
Also pog going back to $1700
Halfpenny
Maybe your name should be "not a full shilling" more appropriate
My advice since you asked is don't buy centamin as they've ran out of gold only a few ounces if any left and it'll cost $7000's to get it out of the ground. Also Egypt is siding with Putin so run run away.....
mrtibbles,
Are you suggesting Centamin are paying circa $5 plus a gallon for diesel when it can be bought on the street in Egypt for around $1.35 ?
Just topped up here. My BT went up 4% and this came down 4%. Looking forward to an extra share of the dividend. Am I right in thinking there is going to be a share buy back now too?