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Thank you Cowichan!
I really cant recall any benefit or advantage to me as a shareholder in the past when any company I have held was bought out, or went in partnership as a junior member, quite the contrary. there was of course usually a bit of a rise or spike in share price that more often or not faded away if things didn't progress fast enough and if the merger/take over went ahead all the DOD did well or very well whilst the shareholders of the subordinate/acquired company got shafted , especially so with anything concerning" Barrick" as Bristow screws everyone, shareholders, workers, the local community and he goes shooting wild animals, awful man!
In this takeover I suppose it was an awful company being taken over by another but much bigger awful company!
https://www.raid-uk.org/blog/acacia-mining-faces-new-human-rights-problems-tanzania
Acacia which was locked out of negotiations, insists its board must approve any agreement reached between the government and Barrick, and has opened a trade dispute arbitration at the international court.
The said agreement is meant to end a $190bn tax dispute with Tanzania and allow resumption of normal business, including export of withheld gold concentrate worth millions of dollars.
Yesterday, the writing was on the wall for Acacia as the government declared the company was “unwanted in Tanzania.” It demanded that Barrick sorts out the stand-off if it wanted the deal.
https://www.barrick.com/English/news/news-details/2019/Further-Update-Concerning-Acacia-Mining-plc-Acacia/default.aspx
https://www.mining.com/barrick-takes-acacia-mining-back-as-buyout-deal-sealed/
Thank you Cowichan,
Well prior to Tim Donnelly Sukari didn't really have a general manager,, if you recall it was a former Egyptian police captain, now what was his name, El Raghy?
Wonder why he was appointed?
Lovely opening on the share price up to 108.10p. but had to go back to yesterday's closing spread and start again on the way up.
Gold price on the rise - XAU/USD $1,885.30 +11.49 +0.61%, which will further help on the UPtrend.
Come on Sotolo- you know any company take-over is way, way, way more complex than that- many more levers.
European stock indexes were higher in premarket trading on Wednesday as traders seemed to positively react to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's expectations of "significant progress" on inflation this year. European energy giant TotalEnergies will soon post its latest financial results. With the data calendar cleared for today, investors will await tomorrow's CPI results from Germany and the European Union economic growth forecast, as well as the EU leaders summit that will be kicking off in Brussels.
The DAX jumped 0.52% and the CAC 40 added 0.86% at 8:00 am CET. The Euro Stoxx 50 increased by 0.95%, while the FTSE 100 traded flat concurrently.
The euro traded flat against the dollar to go for 1.07302 at 7:28 am CET and the pound gained 0.07% compared to the American currency to sell for 1.20475 at the same time.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / M
Happy hump y’al
Thanks as ever Cowichan Spoonington etc, you are right that the variety of views and lively debate has been stimulating. Viz a potential takeover, if Barrick wanted Cey why are they waiting while the company becomes steadily more expensive? Could the Emra half stake be off putting and could it be ongoing negotiations with them?
Tim Donnelly https://www.linkedin.com/in/timdonnelly69/
Apparently he now works for Artemis Gold - see page 4 here:
https://www.artemisgoldinc.com/news/media-releases/artemis-gold-announces-senior-management-changes
If so it would seem Centamin's previous COO Jeremy Langford (who left with the arrival of Mr Horgan in April 2020) would have recruited Mr Donnelly in the last several weeks (or days!)
For those who don't know Mr Langford is Artemis Gold's COO (he was hired in Q1 2021)
I'm all for recruiting local Egyptian talent and 'retiring' expats but only if the expertise is in place (i.e. a suitable replacement was mentored well in advance)
106.60p +1.15 (1.09%) ( a lower closing price due to 1 1.1M UT trade )
The 4 days chart shows the trend has changed ...... https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshot&u=ReVJi3zvxGTd6YfpdQUXvqJQLuFCU5TWeTBZlJZrz4E=
I'm finding more & more Barrick Egypt employee posts these days (which add up to about twenty or so Barrick Egypt geologists I currently count as LinkedIn contacts) these being the most recent
https://www.linkedin.com/in/bishoy-awad-ab492b209/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/emamahm89/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/wael-mostafa-8a0629129/
Of course not all have Centamin roots (maybe 25%) but certainly indicates Barrick is fully operational in Egypt and pressing forward towards a goal. IMO part of that goal will be to take over Sukari while it's undervalued and geologically underexplored
Speculation aside lots of good posts on the LSE today that pass without comment. Perhaps the most balance I've seen of optimism vs alertness. Although some prefer everyone who posts only post on the positive and move on from past mistakes - there are plenty of future issues that are anything but positive. I see the risks being:
1) Doropo will not be profitable (read viable with current grades/volumes) as the estimate to build was far too low (and the new management knew it whilst continuing to publish outdated estimates)
2) Waste removal of the Sukari north hill is not fully accounted for in future AISC projections (and the new management know it) therefore costs will remain elevated even when the current Capital project is complete in late 2024/early 2025
3) The EMRA has yet to decide on the exploitation terms despite 18 months of negotiation. The process was originally given a 12 month deadline. Perhaps they are waiting for new owners of Sukari?
4) Centamin's dividend will shrink or be eliminated while debt is incurred to fund exploration, expansion, rising costs, falling gold price, etc.
These future risks represent a compelling reason for Centamin's BOD to welcome a buyout. A larger company with deeper pockets can ameliorate such risks for Centamin shareholders. Is that positive for current shareholders?
Most who've commented in the past say they prefer Centamin grow on their own steam - but is that even a possibility without preexisting diversification , lower AISC (bigger profit margins) or even the professional team capable of making it happen ?
Spoonington,
What the present management can say is that there are mining professionals running Sukari by sound mining practice whilst keeping shareholders informed of the true state of the operation, something that the previous bunch of carpet baggers failed to do they were too busy glossing over the cracks and filling their boots with free shares and generous dividend!s
Had Martin Horgan and his team been running Sukari sooner that $400m clean up bill would be contributing to the company reserves rather than depleting them!
Andrew Pardey despite initially claiming inaccuracies tried to stifle the 2015 Kees Dekker article which highlighted serious concerns about the way Sukari was being run and then in 2018 after yet another RNS guidance warning again denied all knowledge of the 2015 article on a webinar phone in!
No- just helps him maintain his slightly hawkish, cautious tone to stop the markets running away with themselves and causing any interruption to the dropping of inflation
In the title
Article.
Do Blockbuster job gains jibe with slow-flation? Fed Powels Dilema.
To me just a form of manipulation of Statisics.
;-)
As for gold: I wondered if another leg up would happen before the pullback that I had suggested since $1925 finally materialized. I thought the price would find support at $1885, but sellers cut through seamlessly,
https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2023-02-07/Stocks-steady-while-metals-smashed-What-gives.html?spot_im_redirect_source=pitc
Re-Mr Bonds post-
Kitco News) Markets are looking for the Federal Reserve to wrap up its tightening cycle as inflation decelerates. But not all agree with this premise. Goehring & Rozencwajg sees inflation as a decade-long problem that will trigger new record-high prices in gold.
Gold will play a massive catch-up game to the commodity complex this year as prices rise above $2,050 an ounce, Goehring & Rozencwajg managing partner Leigh Goehring told Kitco News. "Gold is going to hit record highs this year. In August of 2020, we peaked at $2,050, and then again in March 2022. This year we're going to break through the all-time high," Goehring said. "It's time for people to want to be bullish on gold. Since 2020, the average oil indices are up 200%, and the GDX at one point was down almost 35% from its 2020 peak."
Gold will see this massive surge because the Fed is ending its aggressive tightening cycle, and the market is not pricing in inflation correctly. "The Fed will stop raising rates, and then we'll get another big inflation problem. This is the decade of inflation. The Fed will stop raising rates and maybe even begin to lower them, but something else is going to happen that will kick off another spiral in inflationary psychology," Goehring described.
https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-02-01/This-is-the-big-2023-shocker-that-will-get-gold-price-to-record-highs-this-year-Goehring-Rozencwajg.html
Hi Master,
Yes, absolutely a crystal ball if only, or a desert mirage the day before showing the crack in Sukari open pit wall!
re - 1877
yes but still +$8.64
My $1,887.80 +8.30 is the Gold futures
I see 1877 but like your optimism MasterRSI.
Crystal Ball ,I like that, or maybe Gypsy Tea Leaves.
GLA, It will sort out .GP will rise once the FEDs annualised amendment to Job increases passes through,and becomes just more History. Kitco is very informative.
mrtibbles
re - have access to the inner circle of the market cartel or sit on the company BOD!
You forgot to say... " on possession of a Crystal Ball " or " a dream the night before"
Jokingly .. certainly not a "wet dream"
Happy to say GOLD is up again $1,887.80 +8.30 (+0.44%)
Hi 3bear & Master,
We can all learn from one another's experiences in all walks of life, as far as investment decisions go there is certainly a plethora of different techniques including algorithmic programmes and various charts for predicting how the market may move, no doubt some appear to work well or better than others some of the time, although not all of the time!, but that said to a large extent success or failure depends on luck, unless of course you have access to the inner circle of the market cartel or sit on the company BOD!
bear
I am NOT an intraday trader for your desire to know the right thing.
But a shareholder for the term of the TREND UP keeps going UP.
I considered myself good enough to spot those TRENDS for some time now, naturally using chart Indicators.
Sorry to say you are missing the boat at my good selected point.
107.45p +2p
Really, some on here may well disagree with you!
No I'm trying to work out what's behind the news, like last years Q1 when the AISC soared up to 1558 and SP tanked - that's news, behind the news was the next three quarters were always going to be better so I bought in big time all the way down to 75 without any charts. If you're successfully making intraday gains fine and dandy. I'm looking at a bigger picture. Neither method is wrong.
Your “Centamin official source” is talking rubbish if he/she indeed exists & is not just a product of your over-active imagination!
The primary reason for moving the company to Jersey, list in the UK & de-list in Australia was to avoid tax. Whilst I do not agree with jurisdiction hopping for tax purposes it is a product of the system we have created and is standard practice. Centamin sourced most of its capital in Canada which is particularly good for funding mining companies - London on the other hand is not noted as a great source of capital for miners.
As for the dividend policy this was put in place to return surplus profits/capital to shareholders which is the proper course of action. It was done prudently in conjunction with accumulating significant cash reserves to ensure the long term operations of the company were safeguarded in the event of unforeseen problems such as the ones we are currently experiencing. How you can criticise such a prudent & well managed policy escapes me completely, the fact that the El-Raghys benefited from this dividend policy is simply because they put their money where their mouths were - can current management say the same?
Why did the large drop late last week?
The order book follows the Indicators very closely and as they are approaching the Oversold or Overbought territories, the "BOLT" at the order book, overruns one way or another, UP or DOWN.
That was the case late last week
chart of the drop ...https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshot&u=MgTQOLOlS5h%20JPxHi6HhuqyyBfwCd%20HVlcFdFbfYCjI=