The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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B2Gold Corp. Announces Acquisition of Sabina Gold & Silver Corp.
https://twitter.com/b2goldcorp/status/1625160659171254274?s=61&t=VQJRzisw5AWkrHhNmWtLzA
Obviously the high dividends were nice but we are paying for it now with lower ones. If they had gone slow and steady, we would have got the same average dividend over the period of years.
What they did was a bit naughty.
I've been told that police cars are serviced at certain intervals and if you buy one at auction you may be lucky and get a good one that has just been serviced and had worn parts replaced OR you could get a dog, that a lot was worn out on.
Some people were lucky with this share and got in then got out when it was over £2 -------------others bought in at that price and are suffering / losing out because of the previous deceit.
I reckon that if the share was now the £3 you were forecasting before the troubles, you would not be bothered about a low dividend as you would cash out?
Anyone interested in Barricks results on Wednesday.
https://twitter.com/barrickgold/status/1625140258114347008?s=61&t=shzmR5TtDMhEtq9AgPhSXg
As i said- if the data released in the usa this week supports the drivers for gold it will rise and so will cey- and the opposite of course - nothing to do
with charts- they simply provide a rationale was occurred not will occur
1. The retreat has not been that tidy.
4 chart gaps have been created.
30 Jan 113.65p to 113.05p.
31 Jan 112.35p to 111.98p.
2 Feb 108.9p to 108.21p
and finally on Friday 10 Feb 102.45p to 102.17p.
This breakaway down above tells us at some point this will be tidied up in a future rally as RNS data was not the cause of the retreat.
2. The daily chart has Centamin on a support line at 99-100p area. A daily support can be found at 94p and 90.1p.
3. Weekly support has support at 94p.
Charts are not perfect to determine a market bottom position. Other data can arise which break existing support lines. Equally, favourable data can initiate rallies. Centamin is front running the gold price drop along with GDX ETFs and most other miners doing the same. Shanta Gold is a particular exception and the RNS this morning shows the reason why.
My strategy is to slowly drip feed buys in. Currently 10% of the position is on. For those going all in at 94 and 90p is that if the bottom is decided to be at 95p or 99p you having nothing on. Centamin could turn as gold continues to fall if it continues to front run gold prices. Tony
Jeeze- of course it is! it only moves when key data points make it move - there are more this week which will make it move and it will only go down if the data released provides fuel to its negative drivers, and only go up if the data release provides fuel to its positive drivers
Gold going sideways atm.
Seen some saying it could re test c. $1800 before then going to set a new ATH.
Re Simply Wall Street rating -
See the opinion of a well respected mining analyst on this article which should give shareholders some reassurance that Martin Horgan is getting things on track!
Clearly written by a financial man without any indications of having technical expertise. His emphasis on earnings and the surprise about a dropping share price whereas there was earnings growth tells me enough. Of course the price dropped. They had a pit wall collapse that needed a lot of capex to fix. “Earnings” were not affected, but cash flow badly. I suspect with his focus on earnings, he will also not have taken into account that capex will go down from now onwards and net free cash flow up.
Hi Spoonington,
Too much salt on your cornflakes this morning?
If only it were meaningless rubbish, unfortunately its several years worth of uncleared spoil that has severely restricted access and hobbled production until it is cleared away!
You imply that shareholders that believed what they were told by the previous management were "Stupid", whereas in reality it was a case of intentional continued sharp practice and the withholding of the truth regarding the state of the Sukari operation.
I have provided informed and truthful analysis, you have provided copious amounts of vitriol !
As many, have commented the great thing about this board, is that it encompasses different views and tolerance of them. I agree with Spoonington and preferred the rising share and decent dividend under the previous management, even if it meant it couldn’t go on forever, it was preferable to not at all. Now we are promised a relatively low yielding share and the management has yet to prove itself in my humble opinion but as said it takes both views. As regards the share price it looks forward and with less confidence in the gold price this week than last shares will likely be lower at the same price. wWhen compared to a few year ago it will be much lower at the same gold price because costs have risen with inflation, so we need higher gold each year for the same profit and share price.
Gold still virtually where it was on Friday close, but the MM like to push people through their stops losses so as to churn the share and make a profit!
Agreed Ken!
Hi Paul,
Nice summing up!
I hadn't intending going over old ground again, but Spoonington tries to imply that the new management aren't performing as well as the previous management which as we are aware certainly isn't the case.
Also new investors have been asking the reasons why we are in the "last stop saloon!", we LTH are well aware of the reasons, but we should let others know so that they can be aware and prepared.
Keep well!
Tibbs
From what i can see on the chart,i very slightly favour 90p rather than 99p as being the next low.
Any help out there ?.
That might be the case Bob-----------but maybe you forgot the " suggest you buy shares now and get out the same time as Josef"?
I dont think to keep going over what happened is going to do any good Mr T and maybe might put people off investing here as well.
I think you are right about what has happened and long term it has not done us any good. Slower and steadier would have yielded roughly the same amount of gold (averaged out over the years) with less drama, more confidence in the managment and company and probably a higher share price.
Many years ago, a previous owner of my property hade a load of limstone put into the ground. I try and reclaim a little bit of it each year. I've had to use a mattock on some of it as I cannot get a spade in------------and some of it a pickaxe!
The way i prefer to do it is to get all the material out, then sieve it, take the stone down the garden and put the soil back into the hole (having added twigs and compost first). It is the way I prefer to do it, rather than dig a smaller hole and do it in stages. If there was gold in there, I wouldnt get any until the sieving stage. Anyhow --Im sure you understand what Im on about.
At 99.8p on oversold signals on daily and lower time intervals. weekly RSI still at 46. Drip feeding in.
Hi Bob,
That was a fantastic summing up in your post, I see you have a great sence of humour and that's the type of people I like in life, so keep the jovial comments coming through.
Atb
Ken
European stock exchanges were muted ahead of the first session of the week during which investors will monitor Eurozone jobs and economic growth data and United Kingdom inflation figures. Potential revisions to the preliminary fourth quarter 2022 GDP report are expected to affect market sentiment.
The DAX decreased by 0.12%, London's FTSE 100 gained 0.06% and the CAC 40 rose by 0.10% at 8:04 am CET. The EURO STOXX 50 was nearly unchanged at the same time.
Both the euro and the British pound were flat compared to the dollar at 7:59 am CET, trading at 1.06749 and 1.20540, respectively.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / MS
Happy Monday y’al
“stocks muted” is a new one!
Instead on ranting on with meaningless rubbish why not look at actual results in terms of gold mined, dividends paid & cash reserves accumulated?
Compare & contrast current & previous management on that basis removing any bias resulting from an “I want a scapegoat for my own stupidity” mentality.
If you are capable of doing the above you may be able to ascertain a more informed analysis of the state of affairs :)
So we can attribute this mess, which is as Bob eluded to worse than admitted to the previous management!
Ideally, your overall portfolio should beat the market average. But in any portfolio, there will be mixed results between individual stocks. At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in Centamin plc (LON:CEY), since the last five years saw the share price fall 37%. Unfortunately the share price momentum is still quite negative, with prices down 16% in thirty days.
Since Centamin has shed UK£44m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.
https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/materials/lse-cey/centamin-shares/news/02-earnings-growth-over-5-years-has-not-materialized-into-ga-8
Risk Checks
We perform automated risk checks on every company. We flag any failed checks as potential investment risks. A company which passes all our checks, however, is not 'risk free'.
Centamin (CEY) Risk Checks
Fail Are revenue and earnings forecast to grow?
Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 16.7% per year for the next 3 years
Section 2.1
Fail Is their dividend sustainable?
Dividend of 6.18% is not well covered
From 2015 then updated in 2018 , still Pardey & Co were denying anything was wrong and they carried on with the high grading!
Management has put a gloss over this in their latest 5-year production plan, artificially holding down the strip ratio and assuming continuation of underground mining at a very high level, without having the mineral reserves to sustain this.
Should this 5-year plan be implemented, the life of the operation will be curtailed to only these five years, unless there is a major increase in the gold price.
The table below illustrates that open-pit ore is uneconomical at current mined grade at the required strip ratio and a price of US$1,200/oz. The current good financial performance of Sukari can almost fully be attributed to underground mining.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/3695246-centamin-get-out-while-going-is-good
Updated 2018 The financial performance of Centamin is highly leveraged to the gold price
with NPV5 changing by 5.5% for every percentage point change in the gold price.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4229201-kees-dekker-reviews-centamin-plc-analysis
https://seekingalpha.com/author/kees-dekker#regular_articles
This is how things were Spoonington under the last management!
Nov. 19, 2015 5:00 AM ET
The positive factors supporting the historical performance will soon come to an end.
Management's 5-year plan sacrifices long-term future.
Open-pit reserves need a much better gold price to be economical.
Executive Summary
This valuation is based on a cash flow model which uses the latest 5-year production plan of Centamin (LSE: CEY) (OTCPK:CELTF), combined with the long-term schedule in the 2015 feasibility study, to deplete the reserves of material destined to be treated in the Carbon-in-Leach (CIL) plant of the Sukari mine at a rate of approximately 11 million tonnes per annum. Using the gold price as per 17 November 2015 of US$1,070/oz, a net present value at a discount rate of 5% of minus US$89.2 million was arrived at, far more than the Enterprise Value of US$881.9 million for Centamin on that day.
The review of the technical and financial information comes to the following general conclusions:
• Centamin's value is essentially determined by its 50% interest in the Sukari operation.
• The mine is cash-generative even at the current gold price, allowing for return of funds to shareholders as dividends and share buy-backs as capital expenditure has dropped considerably.
• The good cash performance is due to a combination of underground production with very good margins, open-pit mining at low stripping ratios, income tax exemption and profit sharing deferred until investments having been recovered and the mine coming into operation when the gold price was at US$1,000/oz rising to above US$1,600/oz for the period mid-2011 until end-2012.
• The historical performance is as good as it gets as all the positive factors mentioned in the previous bullet point come to an end within the next few years.
• Management has put a gloss over this in their latest 5-year production plan, artificially holding down the strip ratio and assuming continuation of underground mining at a very high level, without having the mineral reserves to sustain this.
• Should this 5-year plan be implemented, the life of the operation will be curtailed to only these five years, unless there is a major increase in the gold price.
• The table below illustrates that open-pit ore is uneconomical at current mined grade at the required strip ratio and a price of US$1,200/oz. The current good financial performance of Sukari can almost fully be attributed to underground mining.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/3695246-centamin-get-going-good
Spoonington,
You should know about regurgitation you have done enough of that concerning how grateful we should all be to the she last bunch of carpetbaggers!
The last management last management were running a "Pyramid" scheme where they were able to cream of all the best grades for short term gain for the own advantage, unfortunately they did this by using inappropriate mining practice until the mine was rendered nearly unworkale by several years of uncleared waste ($467m to clear up)and the company lost half its value and complete credibility with the market!
Hi Tibbs
Purely a bit of fun. However I sadly was not at that meeting but may have been at similar in my previous life. On many things Tibbs we differ but on the way in which the markets are manipulated and the omerta operates we are probably at least on the same platform. However the trick is to see the manipulation and profit from it. Sadly Feb 24 2022 gave massive opportunities in Raytheon, Boeing BAE, Lockheed, et al . A different debate as to whether ethical to profit from the tragedy of war . I did not this time !!!!!!! Had no need but a day traders heaven . Best fun to have with your clothes on is day trading directly into the book leveraged 10 or 20 times depending on the stock being traded, However like gambling take the profit and run . MOST ESSENTIAL ADVICE IS THAT YOU DONT NEED TO TRADE EVRY DAY OR EVESleep tight every one N EVERY WEEK. Compound 1% return per day on 200 days per annum. Wont happen but neither is winning the lottery.
Sleep tight every one
Kindest regards
Bob
Hi Bob,
Fantastic sketch, or is it?
But that said in this instance it's a case of "Many a true word spoken in jest!!"
Are you quite sure that you weren't at this meeting "incognito"?
Kind Regards
Tibbs