Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Thats it Mr T, it has been an enormous exorbitant privilege
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exorbitant_privilege
https://www.econtalk.org/eichengreen-on-the-dollar-and-international-finance/
The other exorbitant privilege the US has is its virtual control of international law. Have a look at the rorts and contorts of how Meta makes its mullions. LOL and you know who pays...muggins
Telegraph link
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/investing/questor-costain-low-priced-stock-bright-future/
Another dig… “Gold mining executives are clearly paying attention to this disconnect, judging by the rash of deals, even if stock markets are not”
I wonder how the U.K. market is going to pan out.
Down the tubes and screwed for ever or wake up!
Gold mining executives are clearly paying attention to this disconnect, judging by the rash of deals, even if stock markets are not, and we are therefore happy to keep faith in both Egypt-focused Centamin (CEY) and Resolute Mining.
Shanta Gold’s 2023 results are due on Thursday (March 28) and the shareholder vote on the deal takes place the week after, on Thursday, April 4.
Questor says: Gold miners could be primed to shine
Ticker: SHG:AIM
Share price at close: 14.5p
Previously tipped (ab a week ago) by The Telegraph’s Questor share tips:
Shanta Gold
Whether a 10pc increase in the offer price from bidder and global conglomerate ETC Holdings (Mar 19) is enough to sway shareholders in Shanta Gold (SHG:AIM) remains to be seen.
If the deal does go through at 14.85p a share, with a dividend of 0.15p a share on top, we will bag a total return in excess of 50pc (Questor, Jan 10, 2023).
Given this column’s dismal record with junior miners, would be more than enough to keep us happy. That said, we can see why some shareholders may feel that even the higher bid represents a bit of a low-ball price.
It equates to a market value of £156m for a firm whose net assets are £133m , according to the last set of published results.
They were the first-half figures for 2023 that were released back in September.
That price tag implies a price-to-book, or price-to-net-asset-value, multiple of 1.17 times.
However, Newmont’s (NEM:NYSE) bid for Australia’s Newcrest in 2023 valued its target at 1.7 times and there is a good possibility of Shanta Gold growing its book value in future, should retained earnings flourish as expected, thanks to both increased output from its New Luika and Singida mines in Tanzania and an all-in sustained cost (AISC) of production of $1,200 (£949.26) to $1,400 an ounce.
With gold trading at $2,175 an ounce, profits should start to pour out of the ground, if all goes to plan, and the metal’s price stays firm.
There are caveats to this. Newcrest is a much more mature and bigger operation than Shanta, with 2.1 million ounces of annual gold output at an AISC of $1,093 at the last count and the stock offered a higher dividend yield than Shanta’s before the acquisition by Newmont.
Investors are also always likely to place a higher multiple on operations in Canada and Australia relative to ones in Africa, for geopolitical reasons, even if Tanzania is one of the most politically stable nations on the continent, in contrast to say Mali or Burkina Faso, where coups in 2021 and 2022 continue to weigh on investor sentiment toward gold diggers such as Resolute Mining (RSG) and Endeavour Mining (EDV).
Intriguingly, EQT’s bid for Shanta is the latest in a growing list of merger and acquisition deals in the gold mining industry. Barrick Gold (BAG:NYSE) swallowed up the then FTSE 100 constituent Randgold Resources in 2019, when Newmont snapped up GoldCorp in 2019.
Agnico-Eagle (AEM:NYSE) and Kirkland Lake Gold merged in 2021 and then in 2023 Agnico-Eagle and Pan American Silver (PAAS:TSX) bought and split up Yamana Gold before Newmont pounced on Newcrest.
The New York Stock Exchange’s Arca Gold Bugs index is trading no higher now than it did in November 2003, when the gold price was $390 an ounce.
*Intresting editor’s call out to U.K. stock market to “wake up”.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mailplus/article-13254937/MIDAS-SHARE-TIPS-Shanta-Gold-mines-rich-seam-exit.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490
The US has the privilege of being able to issue debt at much lower rates than other countries," and this reduces the pain of deficit spending.
The United States also has the privilege of borrowing in its own currency.
If the United States devalues its currency, that means it devalues its debt!
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2019/07/30/746337868/75-years-ago-the-u-s-dollar-became-the-worlds-currency-will-that-last
Thanks you too, Mr Goldgnome.
I forgot to mention that Donald T stands for USA first, second, third etc. So whats going to happen if he gets in, and it look s a fair bet ... more bias to the USA
Good luck the mug punters
the Gnome
Thank you 3bear and Mr Tibbles. I think the comment regarding how well run a company it is with great potential but in the “wrong” place and risk of all going wrong geopolitically comes home. But thank you for taking your time to share your thoughts on it. Brilliant really. GLA.
Hi Confluence,
A pretty fair summing up from 3Bear which covers many of the positives and also some very valid negatives, obviously we cant all agree on everything especially those who have been in the share for over a decade and who are long overdue some reward for their loyalty and patience, rather than another cut in the present paltry dividend , if the CEO & CFO can be awarded such generous bonuses foe doing what they are paid to do anyway then its not unreasonable to expect some similar reward for shareholders.
So let's hope that there is soon a delivery of some substantiated proof that there has indeed been a big turnaround that will invigorate the share price and amplify the dividend!
Tibbs
Hi confluence,
This is my take, others may think I'm in cuckoo land, but for what it's worth:
The fundamental numbers for Centamin are stellar. It has no debt, it is one of the safest and therefore best run tier one mines in the industry. Three years of heavy investment into Sukari sorting out major problems and inefficiences is nearing completion and about to unleash a cash pumping machine as production hits somewhere around 500koz pa and all its niggles get ironed out causing the AISC to fall.
Secondly, I believe the GP is breaking out to a new level poss 2500. Even if it. isn't, the debt burden on first world powers is approaching intolerable levels (US annual interest payments on their debt are now greater than the GDP of Canada - UK interest on debt is an HS2 project every year) the viability of fiat currency as a store of value is under threat. As the possibility of a debt crisis looms central banks are buying tonnes of gold. This company produces more than 15 tonnes of it annually and the price is going up.
Third, the company's growth prospects are fantastic. The Doropo project in Cote D'Ivoire is about to get the green light with first gold around 2028 I guess. So the share price may dip as they sink $400 million into the West African ground for no return in the short term but long term it's all good. The possibility of another major ore body being discovered in the Eastern Desert - to quote another poster on here - is "mouthwatering" with Little Sukari and a neighbouring deposit significant targets under intensive investigation as we speak.
Fourth - Gold stocks as a sector have been significantly undervalued for years now and I think as the GP breaks out so will the miners.
Fifth, the significant downside risk to me - apart from those inherent in mining which is a risky, dangerous and unpredictable industry - is the state of the Egyptian economy and the fact the country is run by a totalitarian dictator, Sisi. If he decided to nationalise the mine and let the shareholders go hang no one could stop him. The risk of an Egyptian default on its debt is extremely high. Egypt is also at the centre of a region of extreme geopolitical risk, note its border with Gaza.
However it is my belief that Sisi is desperate to exploit the country's mineral wealth and wants to attract billions in foreign investment to get at it at no cost to himself. He won't do that if goes about confiscating assets. Egypt's huge strategic importance to the whole world (Suez canal just one globally significant factor) ) means it is too important to be allowed to descend into total chaos. Note the IMF intervention and decision to let the EGP float. I think the first world powers would go to enormous lengths to shore the country up if it was seriously heading for collapse.
So in short, a fantastic company but in the wrong place. You have to be happy with a high level of risk to hold or trade this stock but the potential rewards are enormous.
Welcome back Mr Gnome
A recent publication from the World Bank includes one of the most concise and compelling explanations of central bank de-dollarization and gold purchases to date.
The Gold Investing Handbook for Asset Managers was authored by Kamol Alimukhamedov, Deputy Managing Director of the Central Bank of Uzbekistan and a Member of their Investment Committee. It provides a comprehensive overview of gold as an investment, including its market structure and strategic asset credentials, as well as its trading, custody, logistics, and accounting practices. Much of this will be familiar territory for precious metals people, though the inclusion of statistics and studies right up to 2023 makes it a valuable update for even seasoned gold investors.
Where the Handbook truly stands out is its clear-eyed and unflinching analysis of the growing trend among central banks to reduce their holdings of U.S. Treasuries while simultaneously increasing the percentage of their reserves allocated to gold.
There has been absolute rorting by the US for decades using the USD as the currency of choice for international transaction, which (oddly?) works so much in favour of the US economy that its a wonder the world puts up with it. But ignorance is bliss, so they say ....
ETC
the Gold Gnome
Thank you kindly, Mr Tibbles, I shall have a look.
28 Mar 2024
In this week’s episode of Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire is joined by a returning David Tice, producer and director of “Grid Down, Power Up” and co-manager of the Precious Metals Equity Investment Management Fund.
The precious metals experts disclose the grave threat to both America and the world, warning of geopolitical challenges that could culminate in a takedown of US infrastructure - while offering advice on how to protect oneself with gold and silver.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jUkC8Mk3tN4
Welcome to the Official Grid Down Power Up YouTube Channel! D
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1kErOyJ0u-8
Hold some here but had off loaded more last year around SP 107 at the time if I remember correctly.
So balance sheet looks healthy -
Earnings increasing
Div yield 3% plus
Div cover over 1.5
But do you folk just trade it in the gold price - never seems to go past the 110 mark etc? And 1) are there further mining prospects and 2) How stable are things politically and governance wise?
I know you folk are quite knowledgeable from previous chats but am just looking at some of my portfolio and I haven’t been to attentive to this share. Any thoughts would be very appreciated and as always GLA.
March 28 (Reuters) - Oil producer Capricorn Energy (CNE.L), said on Thursday it received a payment of $30 million this week from the Egyptian government after its debt to the company rose to $169 million last year.
The company has halted new drilling and investment in the country until it agrees with state-owned Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC) on a payment plan.
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/capricorn-energy-receives-30-million-payments-egypt-2024-03-28/
My Thoughts:
A similar extortion is happening with Centamin right now, both the CBE and Egyptian Gov't are stepping out of bounds -
“traders are refusing to claim” over US$2.5 billion worth of goods in ports, Nasser claimed, saying that importers expect a further decline in the value of the buying rate of the dollar, which is making them hold off on selling the goods as they anticipate making higher value sales at a later point.
Prime Minister Mostafa Madbuly cited the same reason on Monday when he announced that US$1.7 billion worth of goods would be confiscated by customs authorities from traders who had refused so far to claim them.
However, according to several importers who spoke to Mada Masr, in order to claim their goods, they would have to pay accumulated fees, which at times could exceed the value of the shipment putting them at a significant loss.
One member of the Alexandria Chamber of Commerce Customs Brokers Division who spoke to Mada Masr on condition of anonymity said that to begin customs clearance procedures, importers must show documentation proving the shipment’s value has been transferred to the supplier abroad.
Once they’ve presented that documentation, “form 4,” they can then head to the port to settle fees, including fees for container space, security fees for container handling companies, port space, and penalties for delaying shipping companies. These are calculated on a per-day basis for the duration of the container’s stay — from the moment it is unloaded from the ship until the goods exit customs.
But the traders expressed resentment about the late fees. “The government is the main cause of the crisis,” the source said.
Importers fees are also payable in dollars or the equivalent in pounds at the new exchange rate, although the value of the pound against the dollar has dropped by over 60 percent since January. All of this adds to the burden, according to the source.
The source called on the government to address the fees crisis. Import transactions could be dated back to allow for fees to be collected according to the exchange rate before the flotation, they said, or companies could be required to reduce or reschedule fees.
Confiscating the goods, however, is likely to mean that they will remain stuck in customs going forward, while traders who imported them will be operating at a sharp loss.
The Egyptian Customs Authority can auction goods which it has confiscated.
https://www.madamasr.com/en/2024/03/28/news/u/importers-late-fees-on-shipments-stuck-in-customs-are-too-expensive-for-us-to-collect-goods/
-------------------------------------->>>>
the cost to foreign companies (and domestic companies for that matter!) to do business in Egypt has become too steep and dangerous to warrant further investment under Sisi
Centamin is no exception - more to follow on whether or not Centamin will be operating under the same concession agreement by this point next year -
R1234, just so, the secret to happiness is indeed count your blessing ….and love your family, but many don’t have one so I have two similar but different mantras, stuff happens to everyone, dumped, fired, collapsing shares, so don’t get bitter and twisted (like count your blessings), and secondly be loyal, to your family, friends, ideas, beliefs (like love your family but more as we live in an increasingly atomized society). The relevance to holders of Centamin, Hochschild Tharisa etc, and now Fisker shares and cars, is getting bitter and twisted doesn’t help, though as Steve Jones might point out the loyalty list does not include shares. At least Cey and hoc etc are finally rising again and asR1234 says count your blessings, and let us hope this is just the start, Happy Easter all.
Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/equities-trading/business-days
Not neccesarily tw.gardner , if Gold continues to rise at this rate .
2213 $ at the moment.
The share price has traded above the May 1st high of last year, doesn't that mean the next price resistance is likely to be at 125, the Jan 2023 high?
Well done Paul, a 3% return in a matter of a few days is good going. Work out the equivalent AER and you'll be delighted.