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Shows inflation dropping last 5days
All does not appear well in Camelot.
Consider all those high-brow economic models, the amount of brainpower employed — not to mention the huge store of data and experience — we can draw upon.
But our success rates in anticipating problems seem to be on the decline. When it comes to solving them, the situation is even worse.
Perhaps the reason isn't quite so mysterious. Just like religion, the theories around economics can be interpreted in whatever way best suits you. And the mdoels they have , have got so many degrees of freedom they are massively illconditioned and can be used and abused by all manner of theories. And, in an era when rational debate and a desire for consensus have been displaced by a polarising dash for the extremes, economics has become a turbulent battleground.
Take the debate over wages right now.
If you believe most business and bank economists, we're on the edge of an abyss. Just like in the 1970s, they argue, we are in the early phase of a debilitating cycle of spiking wages and prices that threatens our future and without firm action to stamp it out pronto, we'll be doomed.
It's an argument thoroughly embraced by the Reserve Bank of Australia, along with every other central bank. In a rare display of unity, all of them are in a panic, pushing through interest rate hikes at lightning speed to plunge a knife into the heart of what they fear most, inflation.
There's just one minor detail they appear to have overlooked. Things have changed since the 1970s, a lot.
Wages aren't soaring. And they're unlikely to. They might be rising at the fastest clip in seven years. But they have come off the back of the slowest growth in history and, in real terms, they are plunging.
Oz is in for another interest rate hike, which if not coupled with a wage increase will mean lower disposable incomes, and economic slowdown, to be polite. Busineses can give wage increases as there are no productivity increases, in fact there are massive productivity declines, due to covid induced work absences, government induced slowness in supply lines, and people being happy to work from home when they want... etc.
interesting times ahead, when the spin can't spin anymore BS
the gnome
Headline news on itv this morning- "facing a countdown to chaos", "people forced this winter between freezing and starving", "many more business will close their doors good", " stark warning for business and charities that Britain faces a winter like no other" and that was in the first minute! 2 weeks ago we were all burning in the climate meltdown, 2 years ago we were all going to die of covid! Media hyperbole- hey guys, joined up thinking... if you spend 500billion they ain't much left now lol- and you want to help Ukraine but not attack Russia(eg you don't mind Ukrainians dying) well again, there are consequences ... still media, you're ok, keep spinning the waffle and your money keeps rolling in-
But who tells the Media what to propagate.
Quite a huge amount of agendas to benefit those needy people, ;-)
The combination of staff shortages and sky high energy bills in nursing homes will mean many of them will soon close. This in turn will mean a number of patients can not move out of hospital for basic care on a temporary basis in a nursing home. This will stop hundred of thousands of people of working age who can not work as they await an operation to improve mobility and render hospitals for emergencies only. This reduces productivity in the economy, reducing tax take, which in turn limits options on what they can do. The future is a massive recession, but of course one person who spends a million pounds for a return Australia air ticket on private jet can not see it as everyone around her flies blind. I guess we will call it Trussenomics which is fundamentally total BS enjoyed by the stupid and bandits.
DONT shoot the messenger. 2.5 years ago many old people were dying of Covid, the pictures from Italian hospitals at the start were truly horrid, and it was very frightening for the elderly seeing so many of their fellows struck down again as they were in the war, and for whom a decent society should care. Now people in poverty, and the elderly living on state pensions, are suffering worse than others from inflation and until energy is subsidised or payments come to them for it yes indeed they have to choose between food and heat which will be very tough this winter. It looks very much like the oil price shock of the 70’s and we know what that did. If gas prices fall right back, inflation falls and no recession, well the media won’t have been wrong about what will happen if we carry on as we are, just the circumstances happily changing partly as a result. Don’t shoot the messenger but choose her to help inform your investment decisions. Will recession and a tumbling stock market cause gold and more so miners to fall, and will they turn back up as investors seek sanctuary, and if so when?
The media are not the messenger- they are biased which is my point. 1 in 2 of us will get cancer- and yet cancer research was cut in half because of COVID- bonkers. If you look at the stats, doesn't matter what approach you took (bar the bonkers outliers like AUS) death rates were similar but economic costs vastly different- media are to blame for the massive overreaction to covid- by limiting opposition to measures. Now, ironically, same are asking for more govt help- ignoring the fact that their approach to covid is responsible for the current nhs crisis- ensuing deaths to cancer etc- far greater than the number saved - bonkers
Some interesting links re cancer
https://www.who.int/health-topics/cancer
https://fullfact.org/health/cancer/
https://gco.iarc.fr/
https://www.macmillan.org.uk/_images/cancer-statistics-factsheet_tcm9-260514.pdf
I will be at a funeral tomorrow where the cause was stage 4 cancer. 2nd friend I have lost this year to late stage cancer. The NHS are right about excess deaths data. Loads of people are fighting there way through a system where it is to late to do anything when they get a diagnosis.
Sorry to hear this Tony-
My condolences on the loss of your friends Tony.
The pandemic is being used as an excuse for just about every case of worsening services in every sector of the UK!
Instead of the Tories squabbling over who is going to be next leader and prime minister they ought to just concentrate sorting out the NHS and other essential public services!
The NHS has become an organisation that side steps its responsibilities and relies on substituting proper medical care with TV add campaigns telling people to see their pharmacist for diagnosis and then treat them selves!
So many medical professionals are so busy not seeing NHS patients and moon lighting in the private sector that they can't be asked to actually do what they were supposedly trained for!
The NHS is well and truly buggered to being no longer fit for purpose!
"media are to blame for the massive overreaction to covid- by limiting opposition to measures."
I find it staggering that people still do not understand basic maths, percentages, and how virus's behave.
Is suppose if people voted in their droves for Brexit when it was obvious the economic destruction it would cause, which were predicted and eloquently explained by Adam Posen in 2017, of which we're just now beginning to live with.
Then it's possible to understand their total lack of understanding shown by people when they start blaming CV-19 for the NHS problems or comparing a disease with a virus.