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Gold could well move a lot this evening
fact...the more the share price falls the more attractive it is to an opportunistic buyer....a 130p bid would probably be enough to secure this single asset producer. Operations have been stabilised and the market is giving them zero credit for that achievement
Will a huge drop in bitcoin tonight, as being widely flaunted on social media, be a bonus for gold. Possibly but probably not..
Still a little time left, but it's looking like the predictions of the 'experts', Macleod - Maguire, et al, as to its affects, has fallen well short. - Again. - So much for being forced into adjusting the books/balance sheets in time to accommodate the NSFR requirements for Jan 1st 2022. - Can it still be done?
Autonomy I think more and more gold investors are becoming discouraged, they invest expecting gold to rise but it keeps not doing so, so many having been burnt by so many false rallies are giving up, hence shares lower while gone in sterling, which counts for us, actually higher £1273 to £1336 over the last 6 months. Plus with Centamin many investors seemed surprising unaware of how much profits would fall over these couple of years and 2024 is a long time to wait. However I am...
Mr Tibbles you asked what I thought of the update of 8/12. In a word : underwhelmed. Yes it's good R&R has increased but the algos homed in on the negative development the rise in AISC.
But this is a problem affecting all the PM mines as noted by Agnico Eagle's CEO Sean Boyd last week. He said that gold will have to rise 20% to address this lag caused by the paper gold market selling.
When announcing the rise in forecast AISC Horgan should have underlined the paradox. We are the only industry not allowed to pass on the cost of inflation because another entity controls the price of gold.
2021 has been really tough for all medium and long term gold stock holders precisely because the market manipulations are done in such a way to try to keep investors invested in stocks and bonds and they have shut off the warning signal that a rising gold price gives.
As such it is imperative that new management show leadership and alignment with shareholders by buying a meaningful holding of stock in their own company. It is the fist requirement of Rick Rule's checklist of mining companies to invest in. It is worth noting that Horgan sold Toro for $305 million in 2019 and let's assume he received 10%. How much has he invested in Centamin ? Just 41,405 shares for cost GBP 46,113.
Another shrewd PM investor Bob Moriarity looks at whether the company management are entrepreneurs taking equal risk with investors in the venture or are they entitled Executive employees keen to maximise their security and benefits ?
On that score I did not like the way Horgan received the equivalent of 1% of the company in share option in his first 11 months in office. Nor could I understand how both he and CFO Jerrard received a 59% salary bonus for 2020. Looking at the benchmarks for the bonus you'll note that there is nothing in it that constitutes increased shareholder value like : conclude court case disputes; JV or sell in W.Africa or advance a mine plan.
With real inflation above 5% and the US 10 yr T at 1.5% what has Jerrard done to retain our capital against inflation since 2016 ? What percentage of our cash holdings are held in bullion (price rise +72% since 17/12/15).
Centamin are producing real money at a time of historic fiat devaluation. The company didn't borrow to grow like peers B2Gold or Endeavour 2013-2021 and we have been left behind as a result of organic growth only approach. Now we have rising AISC, huge costs to clear waste and silence on what's holding back the gold price.
It's time that Martin Horgan made a substantial share purchase and starting talking about the gold price problem. This feels like 16/12/15 repeat. Gold price bottomed $1045 that day and FOMC raised the US Int Rate for first time in 7 years. Form then Centamin rose x3 in 6 months. We could repeat that in 2022. Bu weakness and hold on.
Tornadotony fair enough, normal volumes. It's still a significant sell off?
5 hourly RSI now on 12 and the daily on 24. Polymetal 5 hourly is on 21 RSI read out. I will check and see if other indicators are setting bombed out oversold records.
3bear the additional volume over normal activity is well under 2% over the past two weeks or so. Not a huge amount of evidence of institutional selling thus far.
This morning I was in our local bank and hearing that it was the quiet Christmas run up and that activity 10 days before Christmas was nothing like what they have seen before. A number of local businesses that rely on public facing customers are closing for good. Omicron on some cases has taken away last hopes of a recovery. At the same time inflation is just taking off further and with interest rates possibly going up as well, growth is going to plummet. The word on the street is the pound is going to take a big hit. I can see people emptying bank accounts at some point and put their money into bombed out stocks such as Centamin.
I sold out at 86p. Just over 10 pips down on my initial purchase. There is something not quite right about this price action. As you say Bear Insti's are dumping. If CEY didn't have such a decent cash pile I'd be calling placing but unlikely....I think.
This has got 70p written all over it, but even then I'd be weary unless News explains what's been going on here.
GLA. Nerves of steal required.
The SP tanking so far so fast has to be down to insti/major shareholders dumping large volumes of stock. Why are they doing this? I think it is because the mine has been badly run for several years and that has come home to roost. Horgan is putting it right but it is going to cost and the shareholders are going to have to pay. In a couple of years the business will start reaping the benefits. Who wants to wait that long? In the meantime my understanding of the GP is that inflation in single digits generally leads to better returns on cash which depresses the GP. But if you believe that much greater inflation is inevitable after 10 years of QE and central banks being unable to raise bank rate anywhere near CPI or RPI, much less above it which is where it needs to be... then I'm very happy to buy into a company that's going to be churning out half a million ounces of inflation-proof asset for the next 12 years, especially at prices close to a 5-year low.
Anything less than the expected acceleration of the taper to 30bn will be good for gold. Any dovish, more cautious undertones to Powell's speech will be supportive. We'll see how much the fed considers omicron a threat (it seemingly isn't much of one, but it might overreact like the UK has), and whether that massive jobs miss changes their outlook on the health of the labour market, the other part of their remit. If they surprise and hold the taper at 15 then gold will have a good month.
Uptick coming over next few days for the 10% traders
Wouldn't say there's anything wrong. It's testing its key support level in a market rife with FUD. Very few shares, miners or not, are doing well so far this December. Cey has value, market conditions will improve for it in time.
Nope- most PMs the same- Vitaly over at POLY flagged rising costs in Jan2021 and Aug2021 and SP took a whack both times- CEY latest RNS said same but also other info on Sukari which added an additional SP downside for obvious reasons.
SP's responded to the usual generic markers that other companies do, with the addition of gold price. Sentiment on gold and intra-day movements in gold get the SP to where it is...
Gold price hasnt really moved much in the last 6 months give or take 50 dollars
Cey share price has lost 25% in the same time yet what has changed in the company,so something is wrong somewhere
The FTSE 100 (^FTSE) stumbled against its continental peers on Wednesday as UK inflation rocketed to a 10-year high.
London’s benchmark index fell 0.1% after opening, while the French CAC (^FCHI) rose 0.6% and the DAX (^GDAXI) was 0.4% higher in Germany.
it came as the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics showed that inflation surged to its highest in more than a decade last month. The consumer price index jumped to 5.1% in November, well above forecasts and the highest since September 2011.
The cost of clothing, fuel and second-hand cars all contributed to the surge, as well as the costs of goods produced by factories and the price of raw materials.
This now raises questions as to whether the Bank of England will raise interest rates at its meeting on Thursday. The MPC will now have to weigh up the surge in price rises, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) discouraging it from delaying any further, against the threat of the Omicron variant.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/ftse-heads-lower-uk-inflation-soars-decade-high-european-markets-085743937.html
We all know the US can't walk the talk it'd sink their economy.
Some countries may be buying a bit but America certainky isnt they dont like gold and the world we live all that matters is what America thinks and does and the rest of us follow
Agree Autonomy - The time-horizons are out of court. - The Dec 8th update is not intended to inspire/attract investors. - It does however have appeal for take-over suitors.. IMO
They may taper but will then print another 2 trillion $ for infrastructure. It's never ending.
There is also gold supply v demand on the horizon. Central banks loading up to protect Fiat currency.
Halfpenny
You must be reading different articles to me tapering to finish in March earlier interest rises,dollar up gold down
Some say gold is inflation proof but inflation going up and gold going down
One anaylst in Kitco predicted 1600 gold next year,how much will Cey be loosing then
Taken from the Economic Times 6hrs ago :-
However, the uncertainty engulfing the markets over the Omicron’s outbreak may push the Fed to defer the decision till next meeting. Gold price trend is also suggesting that the tapering is not going to happen anytime soon