Firering Strategic Minerals: From explorer to producer. Watch the video here.
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The idea that people will always make rational decisions in their own self-interest is just plain wrong...one of the key planks of economic theory (lets not use the word wisdom)
Kahneman’s greatest insight was that investors make mistakes, which sounds like the bleedin’ obvious. But his groundbreaking realisation was that our mistakes are the norm, not the exception. In our busy lives, we constantly rush to judgment using mental shortcuts (or heuristics), leading to persistent biases in our decision-making. Even when clear evidence suggests we ought to rethink our positions, we often cling fast to our initial judgments. Gulp, sounds like me?
...once you accept the humbling conclusion that you will inevitably make mistakes, you can seek to understand them and therefore become a better investor.
We hate losing money far more than we enjoy gaining it!!?? Losing $100 hurts twice as much as the pleasure from gaining $100. Even in sport, it has been shown golfers play better when putting for par (fearing the “loss” of a bogie) than when putting for the “gain” of a birdie. Loss aversion is in our DNA. As humans evolved, threats were always far more consequential than opportunities...phew its not just me ...
A study revealed 74 per cent of professional fund managers think they are above average. The other 26 per cent thought they were average. Mathematically, this is simply impossible, half must be below average. In Kahneman’s view, overconfidence is the most significant of our biases. He said: “What would I eliminate if I had a magic wand? Overconfidence.”
Research by Kahneman and Tversky provided important insights into the phenomenons known as “anchoring bias” and the “endowment effect”.
Anchoring bias describes the fact that investors rely too heavily on the initial opinion or piece of information they are given on any topic. Imagine, for example, you were told a widget sells for between $85 and $100 but is available today for $75. You might view this as a good deal.
However, if you were simply told a widget costs $75, you’d far more likely question what is a widget? And you’d question its true value. The deliberate “anchor” placed first in the information you are given distorts your financial analysis and is a common pitfall in financial decision-making.
The endowment effect is a term coined by Richard Thaler, and in a 1991 study, Kahneman and colleagues proposed that it occurs, in part, due to loss aversion. A mistake investors make is when we own something (such as a share in BHP), we mentally give it more value than it might objectively hold. This leads to a paradox where we are more likely to keep a BHP share we own rather than acquiring one we don’t, despite the result being the same in both scenarios – ownership of the share.
This cognitive bias skews our perception, often preventing us from selling assets when it might be prudent to do so, as we overestimate their worth due to per
The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has improved.
• 2024 revenue forecast increased from US$945.9m to US$986.2m.
• EPS estimate increased from US$0.125 to US$0.141 per share.
• Net income forecast to grow 77% next year vs 21% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in the UK.
• Consensus price target up from UK£1.37 to UK£1.40.
• Share price rose 5.4% to UK£1.21 over the past week.
By Simply Wall Street 09-Apr-2024
https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/materials/lse-cey/centamin-shares/future?utm_source=braze&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Critical+Updates&utm_content=Email
Wikipedia
Centamin was first listed on the Australian Stock Exchange in 1970.[2] In 1999, it acquired Pharaoh Gold Mines, a company that had been exploring for gold in Egypt since 1995, and became "Centamin Egypt".[2] The company was granted a 160 square kilometre exploitation lease over the Sukari Gold Project in the eastern desert of Egypt in 2005.[3] A listing was secured on the Toronto Stock Exchange in 2007 to raise funding for production,[2] and first gold was poured in June 2009.[3] The Company moved to a full listing on the London Stock Exchange in November 2009,[4] and was delisted from the Australian Stock Exchange in 2010.[5] In 2011, it redomiciled to Jersey and changed its name to "Centamin plc".[6]
What's your point? Are you accusing CEY of illegal activities?
It's lefty, Marxist plotters who conflate what the illegal miners do with the environmentally permitted activities of miners such as CEY,
I once heard a BBC Radio 4 programme talk about the harm that "informal miners" do.
Informal miners? See how they put a slant on illegal mining. That is like calling a burglar an informal visitor to your home.
Is this too extreme?
"Ron Paul: $20,000 Gold"
Not only is Ron Paul saying Gold can 10x and add a zero without breaking a sweat, he points to history and shows it's already happened once before.
https://en-volve.com/2024/04/09/ron-paul-20000-gold/
Any one remember IPO prices for centamin how much? When it was . My understanding 1.60. In 2010 is that correct? If any one know a place reply thanks
Fair comments Dasut,
Yes not easy, to say the least it would require far more co operation between governments and law and other enforcement agencies and market regulators than exists at the present!
The unfortunate thing is that Illegal Mining exists in areas that are lawless therefore easy to corrupt/ involved in conflict/ suffering extreme poverty and all that comes with such problems.
We all understand that it is wrong but how is it stopped?
TornadoTony,
This is just old school thinking and not the case over the recent past-
Same myth that crypto and gold can’t rise togther.
Markets, gold and crypto all seen great rises.
The proof is there for all to see.
The world changes exponentially these days and old school thinking doesn’t work.
I thought CEY had a gold hedge in at $1900. Any idea how many oz’s are hedged and for how long?
Good points Mr Gnome, the damaging effects of illegal and unregulated mining are all too often ignored by the markets, corrupt governments and the supposed regulators
At first glance, the Amazon rainforest of Peru’s Los Amigos Conservation Concession might seem like a pristine wilderness. Brightly colored birds flit through the jungle. A dense canopy of trees echoes with the cries of howler monkeys. Jaguars pad quietly through the shadows. Giant otters swim in Cocha Lobo Lake. But the forest is hiding a toxic secret: It is tainted by mercury at levels as high as those found in industrial regions in China, according to new research.
The mercury is the product of hundreds of illegal, small-scale gold mines, and is leaving its poisonous fingerprint in forest wildlife. “These forests … are receiving an enormous load of mercury, and the mercury is indeed entering into the food web,” says biogeochemist Jackie Gerson, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of California, Berkeley, who led the research as a Ph.D. student at Duke University. The new study, the first to describe such effects anywhere in the world, is another strand in the growing web of evidence that connects mining to mercury pollution in rivers, fish, and forests.
Gold mining has recently outstripped coal burning as the world’s single largest source of airborne mercury pollution, annually releasing as much as 1000 tons of the potent brain and reproductive poison into the atmosphere. Using mercury to extract gold is a miner’s dream: The cheap, liquid metal, when mixed with a slurry of water and raw ore, binds with the precious gold. Miners then heat the globs of mercury and gold until the mercury burns off, floating away as a vapour.
https://www.science.org/content/article/illegal-gold-mines-flood-amazon-forests-toxic-mercury
All the major gold rallies after 2000 in previous.
Steve
If the USA economy was during great we would not have such a gold rally at over 18%. All the major gold rallies were associated with serious banking problems in USA. A few people will question the FED. Will it be a case of instead of just Houston we have a problem it is Washington DC and New York we have a really big problem. Tony
In economic measurement and decision making terms for the key decision makers, less than 2 weeks ago data is deemed up to date.
I was talking of now ,not the past.
There is no doubt the US Economy is not in good shape especially as the banks are getting no more Gov support from the end of last month.
The facts state otherwise .
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-fourth-quarter-growth-revised-up-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-2024-03-28/#:~:text=The%20economy%20is%20growing%20faster,are%20around%20a%202.0%25%20pace.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-fourth-quarter-economic-growth-handily-beats-expectations-2024-01-25/
The US economy by some metrics is in ghastly shape
Almost all the new job creation is part time work positions
Full time employment has actually fell over the last 12 months
I much prefer Powell's approach as being DATA led.
Economists are wrong and right, just like a stock and everything else which can go up or down- so I would say that all economists will be right at some point and also wrong at some point.
And he's so wrong on bitcoin.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/01/17/jpmorgans-jamie-dimon-says-he-wont-talk-about-bitcoin-anymore-after-trashing-it-one-last-time/?sh=2130dec629c1
He needs to wake up and smell the coffee as they say over there:
https://cointelegraph.com/news/btc-price-66k-blackrock-us-banks-bitcoin-etf
Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and billionaire hedge fund founder Ray Dalio admit they got warnings on US economy wrong — for now. High-profile investors and billionaires warned in the past few years that a recession was imminent. But the US economy is performing better than expected, with strong job reports and lower inflation
Completely wrong and so glad I didn't listen to him.
I hardly think the likes of Jamie Dimon, and most US commentators would sgree the US economy is in great shape.
In fact the contrary.
They were all very different in terms of cause.
We are now on an easing cycle about to occur, 4 years away from the first dip since a pandemic in recent history.
US economy in great shape.
I've lost count of the number of times since COVID hit we've supposed to had a crash.
Go with the data.
Events create change not looking back at history.
The rally since 12 February is 18.8%.
The 2003 dot com crash initial rally was 20% in 2003. 10 months later in 2003 another 12% rally occurred.
In 2005 to 2006 Q4 into Q1 rally was 20%. A second rally in 2006 gave 25.6% but then gave it all back in a decline. It took quite a few months to slowly claw it all back again.
2007 the rally was 16%.
2008 the rally was 16.7%.
2009 the rally was 24% and later on followed by 21%.
2010 the rally was 9.3%
2011 gave a rally in 3 quarters. Q1 was 4.5% Q2 was 5.6% and then Q3 was 21%
2019 gave 16% rally
2020 gave two rallies both were 16% with a several week consolidation in between.
1980 rally is unlikely to be ever repeated as so much has changed in how the market works since then.
The current rally is joining the previous top 6 in the history of 2000-2024 rallies. 3 rallies were associated with a stock market crash and recovery phase.
It's up to $2364 now!