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Great Opp. and with Dividends round the corner can see 20-30% Upside!
"While the price of gold has been falling since late 2020, driven by the stock markets rally and the strong US dollar. This trend is unlikely to continue forever as the global equity markets are trading at all-time highs and could crash at any minute under the right circumstances.
Rising inflation levels in the US and globally due to the money printing being championed by most Central Banks could make gold more attractive in future, given that it has real value compared to fiat currencies.
Centamin shares are likely to rally in line with rising gold prices making its current share price very attractive to long-term investors. I would rate the stock a buy now"
Agree...for what it’s worth!
Great to see this Aticle..
"They have a price target of 170p, which compares with 140p for UBS and 145p at Peel Hunt"
"Centamin intends to recommend a minimum dividend of $105 million for 2021, highlighting its continued focus on shareholder returns based on a five-year trailing dividend yield of 6.1%."
"Seven Centamin (LSE:CEY) directors have bought more than £300,000 of shares in the gold miner after a rollercoaster year for one of the best yielding stocks in the FTSE 250 index."
https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/insider-directors-pile-dividend-stock-ii515611
Long overdue.
It has been well waited on Dasut.
This brings the focus back to a point I tried to make a few weeks ago that after waiting four months for the stock to turn its nearly foolish to leave the table when what would normally be deemed as fair enough profit, better to remain longer term and wait for a double lift.
Good predicament.
With results on Thursday and a possible surprise to the market of fresh court case news the share price could rock unexpectedly.
That's such a good point. Looking at the commodity price is one thing, but a share price can sometimes be a different kettle of fish. The commodity can be in a bull market but if the company selling that commodity is run by idiots, well. Same thing in reverse. We've got Centamin not run by idiots and gold is on the up for now - a double whammy to the plus.
C'mon Centamin. If you can get to 116p by 3pm today, I can have a Tunnocks Tea Cake for tea break.
Just got off golf course- happy days guys, happy days- more higher please :-).
Another positive article:
https://www.asktraders.com/analysis/centamin-shares-are-trading-near-their-12-month-lows-and-appear-ready-to-breakout/
It’s creeping up
Razorsedge totally agree Ground movement so SP drops by half, no effect on final forecasted profit so why a profit warning "follow the lemmings". If we had seen a slip like our Dorset Jurassic coast then would understand as the mine works 24/7 so would certainly have been fatalities and loss of assets but there was no lost assets no serious damage done other than to the SP.
All of you/us who have taken advantage to increase our holding then good luck and roll on 22nd when I am expecting to hear encouraging news.
Dasut I might be wrong but I thought there was in effect a profit warning after the slide as management said ounces mined would be down a fair bit, aisc up a bit more and an additional $200 an ounce capital costs to remedy the situation halving profit and dividends for a couple of years. Excuse me if I misunderstood. However we are already 6 months into the two years so the share price should begin to look to the end of this tunnel, plus gold getting stronger, should hopefully double or more in next two years
Dasut as you know lemmings and Sheeple.
Not professional bandits.
Poor souls lost out big time when they sold.
Totally panicked .
That's life.
To be fair some of thee newer members may not be fully aware what a difference the fuel subsidy made (and would continue to make) in reducing the AISC .
Remember this was all a part of the original considerations on whether Sukari made commercial sense to build given a sub $1000 POG !
Due to unprecedented times and evolving global evens in recent years the POG has risen which fortunately for Centamin's share holders has smoothed out some of the unexpected and considerable increase in diesel cost's, and indeed recent cuts in Sukari guidance due to lower grade and potential pit wall problems which will take around two years to rectify before production can be restored to more normal and sustainable levels.
But as we are all aware the POG ican be fickle and subject to all manner of influences and cannot be guaranteed too continue to remain at what some regard as over elevated levels, of course the POG may continue to rise, but what if it doesn't, when it looks pretty certain that OPEC and Putin will continue to cooperate over restricting oil output to bolster and increase oil prices.
Recently I referred to the diesel fuel subsidy case for which I make no apology because some don't seem to realise the huge amount of money involved.
Centamin's legal advisor's seem confident and believe their case is strong , but even if Centamin were to win the case, then how does the Egyptian government go about refunding such a huge amount of money in a way that doesn’t cause it budgetary and possibly even political embarrassment , now consider could this be why it hasn’t been settled before by the Egyptian court's and government.
I heard from a good source that Martin Horgan believes it is in the best interests of all parties concerned that both the concession court case and the diesel fuel case be resolved as soon as possible.
With this in mind he is trying to come up with a solution that is acceptable and practical for all parties concerned, the latest Egyptian concession awards to Centamin may well have presented an ideal opportunity to have everything on the table and consider the whole Centamin Egyptian package.
I hope you will all take my comments in the spirit in which they are offered.
Tibbs
Those long term holders will remember the share price at this level when the price of gold was much lower than now and stage 4 was still under completion, Capex was still being paid back and and production was such was that profit share was thought though to be a ling way off.
So if anyone or even the market just applied some common sense to the situation now, a bit less production,some open pit waste to claer away and a pit wall to make stable by a new more capable manegment with the expertise, the strategy and the means to increase and sustain production not so far off with access to new and exploited reserves in Eygpt and elsewhere, the likelihood of outstanding issues settled and the possibility of better standardised terms of operation in Eygpt, not mention the rising POG, cash in reserve, a sustainable dividend of over 6% and the knock on benefits of Basil 3 to POG not so far off!
Now how on earth can the MM or anyone else in their right mind else possibly think the present share price is sensible and justified when common sense dictates it simply isn't!
Hi Chris,
Very fair comments,
Indeed so many are no longer investors they are day or even hourly traders, (gamblers) as you say they are only interested in trying to make their 10% on the spin of the wheel, or the tipsters favourite, the shame is so many get themselves into desperate situations's with losses mounting in leveraged CFD positions as the minutes tick by due to the encouragement of unscrupulous brokers who are only interested in how much commissions they can make out of a client in a trading period.
It's very apparent on some of the other forum's , or even on here at times when they pop up those that have gotten themselves into a corner, they are usually the type that are single focused, sometime rude and never have time or interest for any discussion or real debate.
Mr Tibbs
Yes very valid points. I know CEY do not hedge, but given production distribution I would seriously encourage them to buy some puts on the forward curve with the rising gold price.
Analysts are starting to temper their inflation forecasts given slower recovery in the world economy so it very conceivable that should we fail to break through key resistance just above $1800 the traders with short positions won't be stopped out, the gold price is likely to retrace perhaps even to retest $1675. So why not buy a little temporary protection given the variables at play on Egypt for the next year or so?
I wonder if the board and finance bods at Centamin had considered this option?
To some puts on the forward curve with the rising gold price.
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/052014/how-buy-gold-options.asp
They would have to officially change their no hedging policy, but I reckon given the current disruption to volume production & the high aisc and uncertainty right now why not?
it's justified in my opinion.
Hi Paul,
Your suggestion certainly seems to justify some consideration,
Have you thought about putting it to the CEO on the next conference call Q & A session?
Mr T
Not a bad idea.
Mr T
I sent Martin an email to ask the question. I've received an out of office reply, he's back Monday - will let you know if there are any replies. I recently had an interesting discussion on this on the Fresnillo board - they've hedged 7% of the annual production using a collar structure though I'm not sure how many calls they sold for each put they purchased.
Sotolo ounces down yes but not year end profit as was offset by higher gold price and the ounces are still in the ground not lost so actually have a longer life of mine. By all means provide the news due to legislation that ounces will be reduced as this is part and parcel of the targets projected results BUT at the same time the bottom line won't be reduced against forecast because they are unhedged and they have been able to take advantage of the increased gold price with prudent selling. Tell me if the news had been delivered with good PR skills and not panic do you think we would have seen a 50% drop in SP. In my opinion it would have dropped but by nowhere near the 50% and we would now be far closer to the £2 than we are today. Sorry for the tardy response as I have been otherwise engaged.
Gents Hedging is something that Centamin will be very wary of because they have had older members of the gold fraternity advise them on what disasters can occur when hedging at a high future price, believe me I have seen it first hand and discussed the aftermath with the then leading major mining CEO's and CFO's that effectively lost credibility and in some cases their jobs. An absolute no no when you are mining one resource and have no ability to crank up production to meet increased demands at a higher price. If you are contracted to meet future demands and can't supply you may have to go to the market and buy at a higher price than you are getting under the contract.
All looks good on paper but not something I would be advising.
Martine Horgan has actually done a good job in focussing attention of analysts and media away from ounces to value and profit. The old crew Pardey et al were all ozs.
The bottom line was Pardy was below Par. Need to move on, as CEY has.
best
the gnome