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I take both sides of the argument on board Bully. I hold both shares and either way I will still be holding shares in both or Just BPC shares. I’ve only purchased CERP shares since the merger was announced. I’ve already discussed my views and don’t see what benefit it would make discussing them now. I’m not singling out individuals, or hold any malice towards anyone, It’s just getting mundane, I thought the missus was bad, well she is really, so I had to voice my opinion. All the best and I mean that.
Bully...............!
"Take for example Bamps who would post a lot of positive things about CERP up until the merger. As soon as he expressed a negative opinion regarding the merger he was told “to f***off” (paraphrasing). "
very much doubt that happened, but both he and neon did the honourable thing after selling............!
Which is not coming back here, to try an justify why .........!
All the best (time to move on hun :()
Chill out the boys they are only here for one reason,
Sorry forgot to add that I hope you are teenagers still finding your way in life this would explain the repetition. I don’t believe, for one moment, that responsible adults would behave in this manner. I digress and look forward to whatever the result. All the best.
There are some individuals on this forum, not just this one of course, that have got serious issues. The problem I have is the repetition of the same points over and over and over. It’s getting so tedious and it’s a shame as this forum without these certain individuals could be a place where we could discuss both sides of the debate without getting it thrown down our throats all the time. You’ve said your piece so for goodness sake give it a rest. I am starting to feel embarrassed for you.
LTnH.............!
aint you Irene......... :()
All the best (prep for some cheese hun, back door I reckon................ :()
See Irene, in the Matrix (if in the know) you can have anything...........!
you flying commercial or Lear Jet SC.............. :()
All the best (bit of lock down has been going on for 3 months .......... ! )
Irene, my beloved CERP Sister and fellow CERP shareholder……. I get the impression you are deflecting your frustrations towards me and others due to local acute shortages of frogs and newts to boil in your cauldron. Why don’t you get your broom serviced at Kwik Fit (with its fantastic customer service and amazing prices) and fly off somewhere for a while? Preferably for 10 years on a frog and newt infested desert island that doesn’t have internet or phone access. I’m sure the family and I can find ways to keep in-touch sis. Xxx
[My grateful thanks to Itochu corporation (Nasdaq: ITOCY) owners of Kwik-Fit who generously sponsored this message. As an independent expert with legendry predictive skills and being a pompous know-it-all, I have officially marked ITOCY as a STRONG BUY with a 32.4% potential upside by year end. I have no shares in ITOCY and if you’re gullible enough to believe that, you probably believe other posters on this forum who shamelessly manipulate SPs and get suspended, can be trusted.]
Starchild
Xxxx
ps...I'm rarely in the UK, and normally on a different time zone, hence the apparently very early morning posts you enjoy reading.
No need Irene..............!
we don't work together............. :()
All the best (you.............?)
Interesting analogy Irene hun...........!
Agent Smith ............?
All the best ("did you see the lady in the red dress........?" :()
Bahamas Petroleum Southern Licences
Moyes & Co. Technical Audit for BAHAMAS PETROLEUM COMPANY PLC - Dec 2017 - still relevant today
External technical audit conducted by Moyes & Co ("Moyes") indicates aggregate mean volumetrics assessed for the key structures in BPC's southern licences is a STOIIP of 8.3 billion barrels, with an upside of up to 28 billion barrels STOIIP. Moyes independently calculated the probability of success ("PoS") factors for each of the major reservoirs assessed, the majority of which were calculated in the 25 - 35% range.
Applying a recovery factor in the range of 20% - 40% to the Moyes STOIIP volumetrics would result in an unrisked Estimated Ultimate Recoverable ("EUR") in the range of 1.6 billion to 3.3 billion barrels (mean), and up to 11 billion barrels (upside).
Outputs from the Moyes technical audit reconfirms BPC's belief that the minimum field size for economic development is less than 0.2 billion barrels.
Simon Potter, Chief Executive Officer of Bahamas Petroleum Company, said:
"We are pleased to have received the results of the technical audit from Moyes & Co. The independent audit has validated our previous technical work, confirmed the scale of our own internal resource estimates and provided new technical insight that further mitigates and reduces technical risk".
Source - External technical audit conducted by Moyes & Co
https://tinyurl.com/y9r7rths
According to recent news articles including this one http://www.tribune242.com/news/2020/may/26/bahamas-facing-eye-popping-100-debt/ Bahamas national debt is heading to 100% of GDP. This generally fiscally responsible country has had to deal with a devastating hurricane and Covid-19. The country does not have the EU to help bail it out (eg Greece c170%). Furthermore the Bahamian Dollar is pegged to the USD, so they can’t devalue without a paradigm shift in monetary policy.
If BPC spuds a middle eastern size well 1st quarter 2021, and the reserves are PROVEN a few weeks/months later, it will mean the following:
1. Dependent on PoO, the size of the proven reserves and quality, the BPC SP may eventually soar to well above the analysts predictions of c30p or $1 in market cap per barrel. That’s just the beginning otherwise institutional investors and PIs wouldn’t risk to buy at >30p/share to make a measly 10-20% profit. They will buy for the medium to long-term (a few months to 4 years) to make money a serious ROI from future dividends or an M+A, or farm-out to a big oil company.
2. It will also mean the BGov can, to a degree leverage lower interest rates for its debt (from the c25% future royalties BPC has to pay), in the same way a 27 year old can probably go to a bank and leverage, to a degree, borrowing against a mega trust fund which kicks in on his/hers 30th birthday.
The BGov wants the spud to happen as much as we do.
Starchild
xxx
Bynari, good find if you pardon the pun. Although the interview was from 2013, everything still applies. It took the BGov until Feb 2020 to give environmental approval, so I don't think its fair for some folks to lay the full blame on the BoD for delays while they were simultaneously searching for farm-in partners. BPC has now spent c$100m vs $50m in 2013 proving oil is there (or as stated trying to disprove it). I also found the part of the interview at 5 mins 30 seconds interesting about news flow for 6-12 months leading to spud..... significantly increasing BPC SP.
Starchild
will find out soon with Perseverance 1
https://tinyurl.com/ybhgrk6f
Thankyou Benty, that was useful information
Bully's Fake news post 3. He 'forgot' to mention RNS 1/6/20 that superseded the one he quoted.
RNS 1/6/20 bottom of page 2 with my CAPS for emphasis....: https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/w11dm9w ……
‘As announced on 1 May 2020, the investor has previously converted, in aggregate, £3.165 million of the amounts drawn down by the Company into new ordinary shares. The Company has now received a conversion notice in respect of the remaining balance of £1.535 million, at a conversion price of 1.27 pence per share, and, pursuant to the terms of the Facility, the Company will proceed to issue 120,866,141 new ordinary shares (the "Conversion Shares") to the investor. Thereafter, there will be NO FURTHER CONVERTIBLE NOTES REMAINING ON ISSUE and the Company will have NO debts owing under the Facility and NO material debts owing to any other parties. The Company considers an essentially DEBT-FREE balance sheet with retained cash holdings to be an advantageous position as it looks to develop its funding strategy in a changed market landscape, ahead of drilling in late 2020’.
[My bottom line: Warning: always DYOR, check previous posts by clicking on their name, and assume the person posting has a conflict of interest including me. Why would anyone want to say negative things about a share they purportedly own, unless they don’t]
Starchild
Trading in shares of Columbus Energy will be suspended from 16-00 on 4th August 2020.
Bully's post is again misleading and stating as facts what are NOT facts.
1. CERP shares 800m post merger in BPC equivalent NOT 935m
2. 200m Warrants irrelevant until 2021-2024 IF SP soars. Refer to my post this morning .
3. Rest of his 'evidence' is totally fabricated stating as fact the BoD have committed to the need to issue 1.8b shares making the total 5-5.5b. Refer to my point 3 from this morning. And he has used misquoted RNSs from May/June as a precedent that if a CLN is executed it will be at around 1.2p!!!
Bully: stop this mis-information. Assuming you have any shares, I suggest you sell them if you are so worried about mega dilution and don't trust the BoDs who unanimously voted in favour of the merger . I suspect and allege you are just shorting the stock for personal gain at the expense of others.
Bully1985’s post is misleading. My commentary in [ ]
1. Let's talk about the shares in issue - you say there are 3.4billion in issue after the merger. [correct, INCLUDING shares to pay off Lind debt. See point 5 ]
2. This ignores the convertible loan options and other options and warrants currently outstanding. [As at merger date there are NO BPC CLNs that can be triggered. Outstanding debt: NONE. Cash in the bank: approx. 10m BPC + c2m? CERP]
3. When the loan is fully drawn down it will have created convertible shares of approximately 1.25billion @ 1.28p. [WHAT LOAN? WHERE DID he get a figure of 1.28p from relating to future CLNs if any? NO RNS has been issued stating this will happen. Refer to BPC email received last week and my commentary on the BPC BB 9/7/20 0309 AM. It discusses future funding options and future dilution.]
4. There are currently a further 200million share option or warrants outstanding @ 2.34p average. [These are part of the directors and staff incentive packages, many of whom have worked with reduced pay or no pay. BoD options and warrants are usually triggered when a company is doing very well, otherwise there is no point triggering them! They are a common incentive for public companies worldwide, with the exception of dictatorships where the incentive to perform is to avoid being imprisoned or getting shot. ]
5. There are also further shares issue for the repayment of the Lind loan facility to come (although can't find any exact figures - assume another 500m shares) [This is FALSE and the assumption WRONG. Lind debt will be paid off by Trafalgar with c80m shares NOT 500m. These 80m are included in the 3.4b total in point 1 above. ]
6. So assuming no further dilution you are looking at closer to 5.5billion shares. Given the reduction on the current SP of these share option and warrants they will be sold into and the surpress the SP for a long time. [Bully’s bottom line maths is based on misleading exaggerations and as such the calculations irrelevant and WRONG ]
7. on the subject of dilution BPC asked for further issuance of new shares for the BoD (laughable given their current options) and for further shareholders so unlikely there will not be further dilution. [Refer to point 4 re BoD incentive]
[My bottom line: to have a difference of opinion is fine. To scaremonger based on fake information and exaggeration of the known facts is NOT. Bully should sell his shares (if he has any) and go off and short another company]
Starchild
Over the years the one lesson I've learned re these boards is when everyone posts 24/7 trying to influence my investment decisions the best option is to do the opposite, Just go with the BOD if you trust them " They after all have first hand knowledge off what is best for the company.
Sugardaddy: Firstly, I believe your post is well argumented and fair considering you are totally against the merger. You are not attempting to mislead anyone to agree with your point of view. I will attempt to reciprocate having stated for the record I am totally in favour of the merger.
1. I disagree Trafalgar will dump 80m shares. Remember 2 BPC CLNs were repaid in shares in May and June, total 199m. Despite this and evidence the holders were selling off, the BPC SP doubled. However I agree Trafalgar being a financial institution and not a speculator in frontier oil exploration companies will dispose of most of their shares. Furthermore, 80m shares over a period of a weeks or months is nothing: just over 2% of the merged company.
2. I disagree the ex-Columbus directors will dump all their shares. They have insider knowledge about the merger and unanimously voted in favour. They know of stuff we don’t, however I agree they may sell some of their shares if they need cashflow money while unemployed, unless they are given short term consulting contracts by BPC.
3. I agree BPC are asking for shareholder approval for 1.8b shares of which only half will be issued for the CERP merger. It makes perfect sense to have shareholder pre-approval for the remaining shares otherwise it causes admin headaches and more voting. Some may be used in the permutations you stated. Please refer to BPC email received last week and my commentary on the BPC BB 9/7/20 0309 AM UK time. Some of the unallocated shares may be used if worst case scenario point 7 in that post is applicable to do Bahamas spud.
4. I agree with your quote, ‘However, they have stated that "given current financial resources, the Company does not anticipate requiring any further working capital for the next 12 months’
5. Please refer to my post at 8am this morning, re the possible upward pressure on the SP over the next few months until spud, to over compensate for the potential downward pressure of above points 1, 2, and possibly 3.
Bottom line: readers of your post and mine can make their own decisions. However it is good that you and I with totally different viewpoints can have a civilized public debate in a respectful way.
Have a good afternoon. I'm about to watch some footie.
Starchild
BPC Webinar event Thursday 16/7 1800 UK time event.webinarjam.com/register/341/gwwg2ho5
(courtesy of Linton78 on BPC BB....Thanks Linton)
Starchild
Bully: I'm more than prepared to do research (backed with references and justifications) and be generally helpful...my currently busy schedule permitting. What I'm not prepared to do is research on behalf of persons who don't read my prior posts properly, de-ramp, and misquote my posts to argue their case.
1. I believe a combined BPC/CERP will have a market cap of MUCH more than £125m pre-spud and given rationale opinions since 11/6/20 based on research and previous precedent, which I suggest you read, rather than asking me to retype everything again. I haven't got the time to be your PA.
2. I am still awaiting an apology from you for starting an offensive thread yesterday entitled, 'Little Rat', alleging I snitched on you.
Have a great day
Starchild
I'm with Hl, can I assume from this that we can trade in Cerp and Bpc stock until the 6 August 2020?
If it’s approved, all Shareholders at close of business on 6 August 2020 will receive Bahamas Petroleum Co Plc Shares in place of their Columbus Energy Resources plc Shares irrespective of if or how they voted. The new Bahamas Petroleum Co Plc Shares are expected to be issued by 21 August 2020 and will be credited to your portfolio on receipt.
If anyone knows any different can post the dates we can trade in these stocks please
Bully, re your comment...'What on earth makes you think a fair value for BPC/CERP is also £125million'.
1. What makes you state I came up with this figure?
2. Read my post again
3. Watch the presentations again
4. Fact: BPC in Feb 2020, without CERP, interday SP was 5.72p and hit a market cap of £121m on 25/2/20 (ref https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BPC.L/history?p=BPC.L) with c2.1b shares in play.
Make your own decisions and DYOR
Starchild