Adam Davidson, CEO of Trident Royalties, discusses offtake milestones and catalysts to boost FY24. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Bully1985 has absolutely no credibility. He has admitted having no shares in CERP or BPC. It has been proven he has posted fake news. (click on my name to events at the weekend) So why does he spend all day posting on CERP and BPC forums?
Starchild
Hi Tiburn
That's the trouble with off shore fields everything is so expensive. If anything goes wrong with the drill or it has too much water in it that could be the end but on land it's fairly cheap to drill another and quicker to production.
I have moved to Ggp they already have a farm in partner who are doing the drilling. The difference in that farm in is Ggp have other proven multiple targets or future prospects and are needed by the farm in partner for continuation of the joint venture . BPC don't have that security they have numerous other unproven licenses.
I'm more than happy with my move except the BB is crammed
ATB:))
Thanks Bamps, appreciated.
Perhaps the answer lies in a smaller partner prepared to take on the drilling, perhaps needs wider consortia BPC have been alluding to in the past?
Your right though -production is the critical element, BPC can cobble $36m together to pay for one drill but forget production in Bahamas on their own.
all evaluated in Major business case models before they farm in - I read that those FPSO platforms are $600m- $800m each - needs ordering, take 2-3 years to build etc etc.
But if they strike big i would expect to see some interest even so, if they farm out 80% of the Bahamas asset should hopefully be enough return to fully fund CERP asset development if merger goes ahead.
Either way best of fortune to you.
It's worth holding just for the drilling results. Massive rise coming pre-drill as is usually the case with oilers.
Four over the phone options
Yes
No
Abstain
Chairman vote on your behalf
So phone your brokers and choose chairman to vote on your behalf.
Halifax telephone number is +44 (0)1132701154
Barclay's telephone number is 0800 279 3667
Hi Tiburn
In these days of uncertainty with the oil price and covid any farm in is going to favour the farm in partner not the license holder. They have the upper hand at the moment the deal if any is going to be hard to achieve.
Most of the big oil firms are spending huge sums on renewables to reduce their carbon footprint.
BP certainly won't be one of the farmees they are pulling out of the Gulf, with Miami not far away even a small spillage could end up there with the prevailing winds, which firm is going to want that risk.
At 1 billion barrels I'm sure they may get offers but remember a small firm cannot afford to get this to production, the cost of the production vessel is huge. Big firms will not want to pay the going rate and certainly wouldn't want Cerp assets, so the % going forward for a free carry will be as low as the license holder will accept.
Wish you all the best if you intend to hang on in there, too many ifs for me.
Just for fun................!
it is a pity that there's not a x5 star character on offer, and you had use the "+" in your bottom text Starchild............!
All the best (the * just isn't big enough for Irene............ :()
Irene, warrior princess of the Haddocks, you appear to have an unusual fetish for starfish, and more recently starfish bot+oms. Everyone to their own tastes, however it may be prudent getting psychological clinical advice as I’m not sure of its legality under the laws of England and Wales. The condition does not appear to be listed anywhere. The closest I can find is https://www.crystalrivergems.com/gemstone-fetish-starfish-necklace-25mm/ As there is no scholarly article on the subject matter, I take credit for inventing a new word to describe it using the Latin root for starfish, and also include a draft medical symptoms’ classification…..
Dear BMA, I propose you add……..‘ Asterozoa-philia: a very rare tripartite condition discovered in 2020 on a UK forum, of someone that has a fetish for starfish (especially their bot+oms) and the de-ramping of oil exploration companies while simultaneously being extremely irritating’.
Starchild (AKA Starfish)
xxx
PS...stop twisting my words out of context of the overall meaning
Just ignore IreneKrapp
Irene. STOP this and STOP doubting my integrity by twisting what I wrote. I've been trying to be helpful.
Fact 1: Leo's interview made clear the merger would allow for CERP shareholders to make a decision to sell or keep BPC shares after the merger. He didn't qualify this by stating.........' and of course, the price we used was total BS. It will likely be around 1.8p'
Fact 2: a merger price as reflected in the SP, when unanimously agreed by two BoDs who believe a merger is a great idea, do so with the belief the share price will increase.
I don't mind our little 'fun' skirmishes, but I object to being accused of dishonest posting
Starchild
Starchild......"However, independent experts predicted a much higher pre-spud price which was 8p before they knew of the merger and the share dilution with CERP"
not really dilution, as is a merger (takeover), so with the extra shares that BPC will have, comes CERP assets, current MCAP £16m, although the assets will be worth a lot more in the future.............. :)
All the best (accretive dilution.......... ! ;()
Irene, the assumption of the BoDs was that the SP would be around the CERP (c2.6p) and BPC valuation (c3.3p) pre-merger, otherwise they would not have valued the companies as such, with the help of their advisors, in the prospectus. However, independent experts predicted a much higher pre-spud price which was 8p before they knew of the merger and the share dilution with CERP. We await further expert opinions on pre-spud price taking into account CERP assets. Please refer to proactive presentations in my previous posts.
Kindly explain why you think the merger is a bad thing. I do not think you ever have.
Starchild
Hi Brighty
Thanks for your kind comments.
I never sold my Sou shares at the highs but top sliced from my 4p days, regret not selling now was being greedy believed in the four digit promise, 3 dusters and all were game changers, they were having a laugh. UKOG is another one instigated by Ritson the Gatwick Gusher now look at it , water knackered the game changer .
Ah well
ATB:))
Bamps
just a couple of questions as would value your opinion.
If P#1 strike for upwards of a billion barrels as targeted then likely a major would farm in to the company, how much could they pay BPC for joining up front?
And how much percentage could BPC retain going forward with free carry?
thanks
Bamps21 I would like to thank you for your research on CERP. You have been by far and away the most informed and balanced poster on this CERP forum. You will be a great miss here as your input was always very well thought through. I'm hoping that the CERP/BPC merger produces a spike in to the drill in Q4 when I will re-evaluate whether the merged entity is for me or not. It could be a massive opportunity. Best of luck and I will follow your comments elsewhere as they are always of interest and balanced. Brighty
This opportunity is not dissimilar to TXP or SOU from a risk reward stand point. In June 2016 SOU was 17p. By Sept 2016 it was over 90p. TXP 7 months ago was 13p. It is now 56p. I sold SOU on the rise at 77p and still hold TXP. I bought pre the rises on the back of the potential drills they were about to undertake. The CERP/BPC business has a similar opportunity with the drill in q4 to be transformational. That is why I am predicting 8-10p in the run up to the drill. Thereafter it obviously depends on the outcome but in summary there is scope for the CERP/BPC merged business to multiply after the merger in the run up to the q4 drill. Dyor. Good luck, Brighty
Well it's 3 years since Lk took over from Ritson and his 3 year plan hasn't materialised.
Share price of 2.5p taken down to below 1.7p and diluted with 3x more shares.
LK is a very charismatic leader who exudes optimism but the last year has seen the communication from him becoming very sparse, his optimism draining with outside influences becoming more prevalent.
His connection with small shareholders became an irritant for him .
This merger is the only way out for him although he may take the lead role in the new entity.
The P1 drill may be a world class find but I haven't seen or read about when the production is likely to commence. Once the drilling rig has been removed a well head would have been installed and this reminds me of Providence Resources off the coast of Cork where a well head was installed on a successful gas find. A joint venture was sought after and 10 years later nothing's happened except the sp crashingfrom £7 to 4p.
After 10 years with Cerp and loads of research notes the dream of the SWP coming to fruition snatched away for practically nothing, I am still devastated.
Every oil company I've been in with offshore assets has made me a loss, so I definitely did not want another.
Luckily I have reinvested my Cerp money away from oil and is £5k up already besides the extra loss of the lower sp.
The Saffron well S1 was not a great success and I'm expecting the COS for S2 to be a lot lower than S2. They will still have to use that very heavy drilling mud to cope with the mud diapirism so the same result might happen.
Everything Cerp own at the moment was originally instigated by NR , not LK no good running a company but tremendous knowledge, he found the SWP reservoirs.
2014 Proactive LGO presentation was very good.
LK though knew how to get them active although the Steel drum acquisitions looks like an expensive mistake.
What I am saying is don't follow LK blindly if you can't afford to lose a lot of your cash then you need to think about your investments now not later, a consolidation on merger is likely trapping you all.
Anyway whatever you choose to do good luck
PTMS, You are technically right (as at pre-market opening price today) but not right in the overall picture. The value of each CERP share will be 80.3% of a BPC one. Today both SPs are artificially low. It is assumed by both BoDs and there advisors (and many on this BB) the BPC price will (a) substantially increase after both votes end of July and (b) very much increase as BPC heads to a spud date. Existing CERP holders will benefit from this and can sell at anytime during this period.
Starchild
Interesting that our merger valued
CERP at 25M Mcap when deal announced
From yesterday’s close we are at 16M but BPC have also gone down so how does CERP get the extra 9M.
What is our true value. Remember “we have found what we were looking for”. WHAT was it LK
IMHO things just does not add up here.
Why is our board so quiet. Do they not think we might be interested in what they have to say about current operations.
Yes
No
Abstain
Chairman vote on your behalf
So phone your brokers and choose chairman to vote on your behalf.
Irene, our delightful little vampire bat. The thought you put into some of your trolling posts against me, appear to have the intelligence of Baldrick on Blackadder. Instead of doing this and taking pot shots at others, why don’t you explain why you don’t want the BPC-CERP merger to happen? I assume that you are a CERP shareholder and are not just attempting to talk the price down for manipulative reasons.
Starchild (AKA Starfish)
xxx
My Calendar only says the 15th so you should head on back and sit by your Calendar. Try not to get ahead of yourself as you may collapse into an uncontrollable orgasm. The Fat lady has not even entered the opera house yet. When this goes up I shall let you try and calculate the profit on a 1.75p average when this goes up. Have a bucket to hand as you will feel nauseas and probably chuck up as you realise your error. See the tumble weed pass by your window once again. By the way you are hardly worth replying to. My 4 year old grandson is more intellectual than you imo.
merger date is not here yet so maybe 2.2p to 2.4p still possible. And whilst it stays above 2.20p for BPC I will still be in profit Irene so I do not give a **** about anything you write as you do not even own shares and you are the saddest investor/ individual I have ever met. Reckon most people that meet you must want to slit their wrists. Or are your negative bull**** posts just a front. By the way made another few grand this week you must be upset that you never make money. The key Irene is to actually purchase shares not just pretend to invest. By the way 1.8million shares watch and weep you terribly sad insecure person. Come back and speak to me after perserverance 1 is spud. Stick by my predictions unless something fundamentally changes....and cannot see any sign of that.
Was going to vote for the deal, but I think Columbus would be better to just carry on. Oil prices will recover. The market views the merger as bad for both companies. And the market is usually right.
BPC share holders don't seem too keen on the deal. What happens to Columbus if the deal is turned down?