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We all play the same game Davee.
You may have missed your chance to rebuy at 1020p on Friday, this will now go back 1500 IMO. 1080p is too cheap given Astrazeneva/Oxford and Moderna vaccine news is due this or the following week! Once Pfizer vaccine is approved, I except 2000p by end of the year. So for 10% loss if you don't buy, you stand a chance to lose 90% gain. I managed to buy some at 1040p again after selling out at 1310p. Happy to take a small loss if we go below 1000p but the risk reward ratio is too greater for me to stay out of this when AZ or Oxford announce their result.
Yes
£20/£25 eh. have you accounted for the extra shares now in issue.
You who are considering investing in this share need to be aware it is being played by bigger players than us. Despite all the facts and figures it will continue to react to good and bad news as it has done as long as I can remember. I last bought into this share at 839p and sold at 1200p for a nice 40% profit. I am sitting on gains of £20K having played along with the bounces since the beginning of the first lockdown. Some I have missed by a very small margin. I am now looking at buying at 950p and looking at a bigger bounce to around 1500p. I am gambling on another bounce or 2 before the new year when I will use all gains to buy in for the long run home to £20/£25. I played this same game in the 1990's but missed out by pennies on the final surge from the 900p's to over 3000p.
Well done Davee...who saw a potential vacine news coming
so quickly?
A few wrinkles to work out on the vacine (storage @-70, is it effective for all age groups side effects, can it be mass produced quickly, will it be effectivefor other variants of Covid). Should get this sorted in 2-3 months then they can start the programme. Then another 3-4 months to get sufficient volumes of people vaccinated ( can see the US as a problem as the anti-vax BS will be loud over there). So with a fair wind things could be returning near normal by June/July next year. I believe there will be better vaccines available with a much better effectiveness than 90%.
So probably another 2 cash raises until we return to something like BAU. But should be firing on all cylinders by Autumn 2021.
Then we can get the calculators out to see how much profit is required to pay back the billions in debt payments over the next 7 years.
I for one will be cruising...in 2022 if it is still safe.
Talking Sense said: "This time around I think you are being very optimistic"
I said I would sell at 980p after buying last month at 839p. My sell instruction fortunately had just expired so I was able to sell today at 1200p instead for a nice 40% profit. If you check my previous comments I have been right most of the time!
Is there another bounce coming? I think so once reality sets inand will predict 900/950p soon. Watch this space!
Fill your boots!
She is a beautiful ship.
Unlike the new Cunard ship that was due in 2022 (don't know when now) which I think they may call the Queen Camilla ...definitely not a looker.
In all probability it will be called the Queen Anne as there aren't many other options.
Hi TalkingSense. You are right, cruise ships don’t do well in storms. However, the QM2 is an ocean liner! In fact the only one in service and she performed magnificently in storm force 11 during our transatlantic crossing!
GLA
Carnival is launching its 2022 program next month. It will bring in some revenue but not much.
Sorry, but I would say at the moment we may test the lows of March in the next few weeks.
Carnival will have to look at some more foreign investment in the near future.
Hi Davee, This time around I think you are being very optimistic.
If that report from the CDC the other day is correct and all cruises get suspended until at least March then you are going to see more fund raising here and this almost becomes a survival play.
@$600m a month that's another $3BN on top of the debt pile...and that will be cruising in March AT THE EARLIEST.
Income will also be hit as the proportion of FCC passengers is going up and up each month they cancel current cruises , so the opportunity for fresh income from new fare payers diminishes each month (I'm assuming AIDA will be also shut down for the next month with the German lockdown?)
Seems to be brewing in to the perfect storm for Carnival...and cruise ships don't do well in storms.
I hope I am wrong and some winter miracle happens on the covid front...I like Carnival and would like to see it kept in tact.
Yes bought at 839, well within 5% of the current low. Put a sell on at 980p this time. I think there will be many more bounces this year. Not being too greedy or too optimistic now. Picking up a £3000 profit each time is quite nice. Just hope I dont miss out on the big rise like I did 20 years ago!
Ooooh I 've just bought back in at 8.21, having previously bought at the original low of 6.50 ish, and sold at 11.50. I am happy to hang on to these for a while and hope for the best for the future cruise industry! I didn't think they'd go below 9 again, but here we are.
I don’t believe anyone has the answer regarding the sailing schedule of Cruising! Another operator MSC has successfully maintained Cruises on a reduced and controlled operation, the travel industry is on its knee’s, however there are considerable amount of bookings being made for 2021/2022, so there is trade if COVID-19 can be controlled or mitigated. Having just bought in again at 823p I didn’t believe the price would go below 850p, so I could be wrong but I believe this could be a new low and the price will resume at 950p until a vaccine or successful control of the virus is common place. I expect to be shot down by a few experts, but I believe Carnival as a company will return to at least 50% of its previous value by Spring 2022! IMO GLA
The bottom line is Carnival just doesn't have a date to resume cruising. We're hopeful of a resumption at the end of March as this is what is being discussed in the trade. We need them to resume sailings and bring out their new guidelines. I'm sure they will also be getting a fine down the road for their data breach.
So that means you're buying now, right, Davee?
BernietheBiker said "Have to say im smelling a rat here" Re my comment: " I think it will dip below my planned next buy price of 880p so adjusted to 850p. which is 10p more than my last bounce buy price a couple of weeks back"! ( posted 14th October). Also on the 15th Otober I said "Still in to buy at 850p before the next upturn" (Previous sell price was 1095.2p)
Still in to buy at 850p before the next upturn. Previous sell price was actually 1095.2. I had predicted 1100 but put a limit sell on at 1095 with Barclays. Im no genius just very lucky with this share as did the same thing with it 20 years ago when it was bouncing around the same price and I made big mistake of selling too soon at 1000p (ish) before it started to soar. I may call it a day this time and hold for the long haul but it is hard to resist a few k profit. It all helps offset my £180,000 loss on paper on the rest of my shares!
Have to say, I'm smelling a rat here too.....he's either a genius, extremely lucky, or a liar. Pick one.
You are funny Davee.... this is what you said at 3.27pm on 8 Oct:
"The history of this share tells me there will be more bounces, so will go for the sell and hope to buy back sub 900 maybe 870" Nice profit of £4000! Now looking for the next low!"
Reality is, it hit 1100 briefly at 2pm and it never went near 1095p again after your post at 3.27pm. Well done on the trading nonetheless. LMAO.
Yes, you predicted it spot on but you never traded it! Go on.....fess up.
I think it will dip below my planned next buy price of 880p so adjusted to 850p. which is 10p more than my last bounce buy price a couple of weeks back!
Well done Daveee. As always your timing was spot on
The price on the day actually showed as spiking to 1100.6p. it showed on here at 1100 as the days high. I sold at 1095p as I had to adjust last minute as i thought id missed it!
The greatest traders in the world are hindsight traders....
The high (very briefly) was 1089 on 8th October.
Are you saying you sold better than the high, or did you just manage to sell at the very peak? (again).