Proposed Directors of Tirupati Graphite explain why they have requisitioned an GM. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
The sp is at this level as investors want to see conclusive news that adds solid value to underpin and move the sp on. Ask us much stronger than bid at 750-150k so next move is backwards. They are in the process of selling the current shallows and many investors were expecting more as per some of the unrealistic valuations posted here. The horizontal program has failed and they're leaving it to Absolute who have the cash and expertise to exploit the opportuniy. $83m is just less than 3 years revenue (inc oil trading) for Casper and obviously a steal for Absolute if they can exploit the 15m boe or increase that and the field life. I'm not unhappy with taking the cash as opposed to continuing to fail, spending cash whist depletion continues. The concern that PIs have is that they've sold the only producing asset which you could assign real NAV v a chunk of cash which has an equivalent 3 year value. The key now is the utilisation of that cash and the associated ROI. West Shalva being the first acquisition and we won't wait long to see if it was a great investment or not and more importantly , a field that their skill level can exploit.
This is a high risk investment so we're all expecting large rewards and the news in the next few weeks will show us whether they can change their deep drilling record. The next few news updates could send the sp shooting northwards but investors aren't buying it at this juncture as they want to see concrete good news that strengthens the NAV. The next material updates are below, we can forget any shallow progress as that just helps facilitate the asset disposal .
Next news -;
CE confirmation
A5 flow test result
B8 licence approval and deep test results x2
803 progress update
802 partner confirmation and plan
Shallow sale completion
CE cash is great and added to the shallows pot will make them cash rich and hopefully the CE charter will become a regular occurrence generating annual revenues of $10m+ pa
The big news are the deeps and A5 is imminent, Block 8 should be too and 803 results in Q3. All these assets are huge for all invested and many bags to be had if any or all come in, that's why we're here. No visible flaring videos available on A5 to date and history is against us re success but only a couple of weeks before conclusive news. B8 hopefully not far behind and worst case there, we pick up current production and get loan cash back.
If they fail at all the current prospects, I believe they'll sell BNG deeps as they've all flowed but Casper as with the shallows, can't convert to booked reserves. If that was the outcome, I do believe that with a prod licence, they will raise a significant sum from any sale. If they deliver success at A block, NY and B8 then this gets very silly indeed. Those in the know or should I say, understand the true NAV, will be buying like crazy before the thundering herd work it out.
Contd,
The hype will be ridiculous and the sp will get ahead of the NAV and there will be serious money to be made. Many will exit,some will topslice when it gets overheated and maybe rebuy, lowering their averages if they see that there's more upside to come. We've not seen that real hype since A5 and by god are we overdue some proper fun !!
In summary, the huge upside is still intact but nobody is buying it until they see that conclusive evidence that they've cracked it. Investors are taking out any downside risk of any more poor news and obviously hoping to buy quickly following any positive news release. One thing I do know is that the assets are worth more than the current sp and thus is a raving buy down here but the bid is weak and I feel a little further to go on the downside before bottom feeders, range traders etc start getting involved
Were probably at the most important period of our 18 year history to date and the developments in H2 2024 is going to tell us what we all need to know about his investment.
This is a strong buy :)
Smarty,
I agree with all of that, price may slide a bit more but continue scaling it in around here imo.
Looking at the numbers if they keep MJF and the sale doesn't go through BUT the boat rental money does happen then this 3.43p zone is value.
If they Sell the shallows and the boat rental happens then its increased value ...
The boat rental is happening.
CC,
Lots of variables that can catapult sp but A5 is the BIG news. If it comes in and that’s a big IF, then the sp reaction will be significant, if it isn’t initiall the fill your boots time. If it fails but flows again before blockages, it’s more data yo put into the pot which will accelerate the BNG sale after prod licence granted.
Fed up of the small bits of news that are not rewarding investors. They need to prove up BNG and sell for loads or worst case get gem to flow pre any blockage issues and then sell for a tidy sum, either way we make some real money.
DM,
A mate’s just bought a 9m Stingher with 2 x 250 Mercurys . I actually can’t believe the price ! , eye watering. I either need Casper to finally deliver or if not, rent his rib on the cheap ;)
The A5 Deep Well flowed for a couple of weeks initially before becoming blocked so the drilling g fluid must have been 'nearly' the right mud balance, so I'm thinking after a few years of lab testing they will now have the right mud weight balance, especially as they've drilled the A8 Deep Well to 5,500m.
Only worry is stuck pipe and rocks blocking perforated pipe holes.
BOP at the ready sir!
Smarty,
Unsure that investors will be able to buy back in volume on any news unless the first tranche of West Shalva stock of 5m equivalent at 4p a share hits the market, Kuat hasn't sold stock to the market before - even if they do they will be at 4p+ meaning that adding at 3.43p is an ok move.
Boat deal is done - there is $10m for starters, maybe $15m that clears the debts.
They were talking about selling half the boat to some offshore company ( Cough ) its possible if the first drill leads to a second Abay drill that another offer for the ship emerges.
After being in negotiations to participate in larger Kazak offshore drills unlikely they would sell unless it is part of the deal?
Selling MJF $83m, the RNS sounded positive that it was going through quickly ( by August 2024 )
A5 - who knows.
Block 8 - previous licence renewals have taken time
West Shalva has a licence but is a small parcel of land?
801, 802 and 803 very interested in these drills, they have A5, A6 and A7 ( to be tracked from 2150 ) data already, this side track will show extension of main well, branch pressures etc.
The 802 and 803 wells are of real interest and if that leads to strong flows then it is all ready to be sold.
Or if done peeps buy a few, the sp might go north :)
Quite a lot of buys all of a sudden
If peeps sell 50% of their holdings on A5/ 802-3 good news 150m shares would be sold, will WCP buy them, no new peeps will, so plenty of available shares will hit the market 2H.
Speculative buying on Specialist onboard/ A5 flow testing, news around the corner.
They've had almost 2 months to drill/ flow test the A5 Deep Well so news has to be imminent, a cautious 15m per day drilled of the 400m sidetrack would take 26 days to drill, add a week to cement, frack and flow test for a few days.
Tuesday Op's Update?
Over 2.5m buys and one sale of 288k. Where was all the stock coming from as the sp should’ve moved more than 5%. News on the doorstep ? if so, which asset and what news flavour ?
News on the doorstep ? if so, which asset and what news flavour ?
Lets have a game of hangman ...
B - A T
Or Battleships....
A -
Got it..
5 Boats
Just a casual ramp....
What's the share price if;
Boat hire to Eni - Confirmed
A5 - flowing
MJF sold for $83m
Then add in background noise of;
Rig moving to A7
Block 8 licence awaited
West Shalva rig on its way to drill through the camel
802 and 803 - up next.
There are 6 deep wells to finish off drilling/ flow test this year with the 801-806 Deep Wells in the wings year end, and 6 structures to poke holes into with their 5 rigs to boot.
3.5p is someone having a laugh?
If it is news driven then most likely the barge but could also be FY accounts. Historically, publication was always in May pre Covid. If it is FY accounts, it’ll show a profitable year but liabilities increasing. Much that they’re selling shallows above the balance sheet carry valuation, the increasing liabilities and tight cash position were also factors in the sale decision along with the inability to build and sustain prod volumes.
Could also be B8 licence award or an interim A5 update but I think both unlikely til June.
HQ are in silent mode so obviously in a closed period or CC us up to his eyes preparing the annual accounts.
If you follow Adrianz on twitter ....
A5 flowing and price of 8.5 p at close
Lol, I'd add a bit to that price target John.
A5 and the boat.
As per Twitter the KC Caspian Explorer is officially recognised and Casp appointed the American operations manager in March 2024!
A5 not now as they’ll not want any egg on face moments. If it did actually flow at sensible volumes ie 1000bopd for the 30 day flow test, would they wait longer to ensure that no blockages or c*ck ups. Also will be interesting to see how the news will be received knowing our history. I believe it will take a while for the penny to drop, that’s the opportunity moment for investors, especially the LTHs to pike in if they’re not loaded enough already. Probably would go to 8p first day as there’ll be loads of selling but the hype would be off the scale as they have 5 other deeps on the ho in the H2 period. We all crave that moment whereby we can tell the story and explain the opportunity ahead as bullishly as possible ;)
Cc. I’ll stand by my 8.5 at close on day of announcement .
I think it will take more news than A5 to move it on
The first time it flowed it was at 4p and took three days to get to 24p.
If you prorata the increased shares ( that have gone to Kuat so not for general sale ) that takes it to 15p
BUT, at that point it was the only asset.
There was,
No boat
No Block 8 with four wells drilled.
West Shalva with a leaking well and a camel
MJF & South Yelemes ( or $83m in cash )
No oil trading business.
No CTS drilling business earning money and the opportunity of farm ins.
Possibility of a 3AB payout.
Add all that back into the mix and I'd say you are easily back to 24p or if Rocketeer asks 42p.