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What I think those nervous holders should consider are things others have raised earlier.
Covid has only affected stores in an impactful way for a total of 1 week during quarter 1.
CARD usually make around 22 million pre tax profits for the 1st half of any given year. With the usual 40million pre tax profits raised in the 2nd half of the year, particularly at Christmas.
They have also seen an increase in revenue of around 10million, (usually 5m) of their online sales during lockdown with their 2nd largest cost (staff) being picked up the government to the tune of 80%.
With this in mind and the additional 100 stores opening in 2 weeks and rest ti follow shortly after I think they have been fairly lucky that they havent been hit in their biggest seasons (Valentines, highest the for the 4th year running and christmas).
In my opinion this is definitely undervalued and a fairer valuation at this current time would be in the 60p range.
Liberum capital BUY From Hold. target 100p
PEEL Hunt LLP HOLD target 80p
Both with todays date on
Dave, who are the 2 brokers with 80 and 100p targets plz?
2 broker updates today one at 80 hold
Another at 100p target on a buy..
If your happy holding you can't lose out here..
But it won't change overnight..
As for a loss this year. I doubt that
Paul Scott from Wikipedia wrote in January this year that this stock was very undervalued when it has fallen to 98p and that he was a long term investor at that time and that the risk/reward was fairly balanced in his opinion. Not sure why Liberum Capital reiterated a Buy recommendation today with a target of £1 and Morgan Stanley very recently with a target of 85p. What is new today that we don't know earlier in the year in terms of last year results. It's all the same IMO.
COVID is a special situation that is new like with all other companies they have to deal with. They have taken actions that are in their control i.e. reduce operational and capital expenditure, more online sales, furloughing staff etc. Comments from analysts are to scare monger small PI's. You dont make a loss until you sell.
Must admit, I don't like their "smoke & mirrors" language. Thanks to HL I missed getting out this morning at 48p. (when will they fix their trading platform?). I decided to get out earlier this afternoon (essentially red break even)
Cheers Wickers. Much appreciated. Unfortunately , unless I read it wrong , the big % increase is only on cardfactory.com which was less than £5m turnover for FY20. The ‘getting personal’ element or whatever hasn’t been so dynamic. Will continue to monitor and probably buy more if it dips. Long term has to go up IMO.
Totally get both your decisions to sell and to be fair not sure where you bought in at however, these results at THIS depressed share price surly is undervalued?
All being well and no second wave, surly a 50% increase in today's share price by December is not too optimistic?
I did the same, I think your right, their core business comes from the shops and if they aren’t open they can’t sell! Online has done well but it’s a very small %, I was in the reject shop the other day and they had a small stand not the greatest selection of card factory cards and they were all 2dollars, not the greatest! They need their shops open to survive, bulk buys to keep in the cupboard for spares ect!
# Trades 2,353
Vol. Sold 15,671,792
Sold Value £6m
Vol. Bought 3,961,834
Bought Value £2m
PE Ratio 2.717
Earnings 15.00
Dividend 2.90
Yield 7.117%
Figures speak fir themselves sadly it’s a sell and re invest in something else, I’ve chosen AA,
Good luck everyone especially those who have held on for a while, disappointing times for card factory shareholders!
Doesnt take a genious to realise that... still doesnt mean sp should be this low fairvalue 90p
Got out today - Did some calculations and i think there is a high chance CF will make a loss this year. Not worth the risk IMO, good luck to those still holding