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Capital Ltd portfolio soars in value as Aussie investments surge ahead
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/961940/capital-ltd-portfolio-soars-in-value-as-aussie-investments-surge-ahead-961940.html
Looking forward to the Q3 update before I buy in. Looks like a solid business. This a growth stock period on how they have performed.
Start of commodity cycle is big
Great to see CAPD being proactive and issuing an RNS telling the world about their investment success:
Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/capital-CAPD/share-news/Capital-Limited-Direct-Investments-Update/86184660
The investment portfolio is now worth $54.2m - against a £150m m/cap.
And the big unlisted investee company (Allied Gold) is hopefully due to IPO within the next few months.
Plus there's the Q3 trading update to look forward to on the 13th October.
these guys are as good at investing as they are running the business of mining....
Capital reports its investment portfolio position within the interim and full year results. However, returns through Q3 2021 have been significant relative to the size of the portfolio announced in June. These returns are largely attributable to the performance of two key portfolio holdings and have driven an increase in the total investments value of approximately $23.2 million, taking the period end portfolio value to $54.2 million from $31.0 million at 30 June 2021.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CAPD/direct-investments-update-2m9f5zo3e1yn0hm.html
It's actually even better than I'd thought. CAPD now have 141m shares in PDI according to this, having increased their holding substantially this summer:
Https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/PREDICTIVE-DISCOVERY-LIMI-34991339/company/
And per this announcement on 19th July:
Https://www.predictivediscovery.com/announcements/
Which would make CAPD's stake in PDI alone worth a whopping £18.1m, at 141m times AUD0.24 at AUD1.87:£1 - that's over 12% of the market cap by itself.
Wow - PDI are up 37% to AUD0.24 on terrific exploration news overnight, which makes CAPD's 90m shares in PDI alone worth around £11.5m....which in turn should mean that CAPD's investment portfolio is now worth more than $50m....
PDI issued a Maiden Resource Estimate - "3.65 MILLION OUNCE BANKAN MAIDEN MINERAL RESOURCE ESTIMATE"
"Exceptional potential to grow the MRE as substantial drilling programs have continued at #Bankan since the MRE cut-off date."
Crazy bargain times at these prices for CAPD imho:
Https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=quote+%22predictive+discovery%22
Here's a couple more extracts - from memory I don't think CAPD have announced anything with regards to Doropo? Being in West Africa they must be in prime position to obtain CEY's work there too.
Good to see the share price moving upwards today.....about time :o))
"In summary, I'm confident that we will extend the life of the mine and have positive news flow for you in the coming months. As I said, Sukari has been turned around, resources and reserves are increasing, and we're confident of delivering on our growth plan"********************What has emerged is the growth potential in our business outside of Sukari. Something I believe that has not been fully appreciated before. We now have a significant exploration license package in Egypt to complement our strategic first-mover advantage in the country. We can leverage off our infrastructure and our people to rapidly explore and bring to account this potential and this portfolio of licenses.
In Cote d'Ivoire, we can see our next operation at Doropo with a mine that can add an incremental 200,000 ounces per annum to our production profile. In ABC, we have a significant strike package along a promising belt that already bodes to 2 million ounce inventory with more targets being generated. And if we deliver into our goals, we will add up to 3 million ounces of our group reserves over the next two years. These are ambitious targets, but with the team in place we have managing the exciting portfolio backed by our financial robust position, we can deliver this on behalf of all our stakeholders."
Centamin had an Analyst Day yesterday - it's very encouraging for CAPD. Kaizenkid has posted the transcript elsewhere, and CAPD apparently got a specific mention. Here's an extract:
"The ore body at Sukari truly is world-class. And despite being having in production for over 10 years now, we still believe there's a lot more to come from it. We're busy exploring the broader Sukari concession with new targets emerging. And of course, we're excited about the potential of the newly granted exploration permits in Egypt. They cover in excess of 3,000 square kilometers of ready prospective geology. And we have a huge advantage, given our position as Egypt's only gold producer.
In West Africa, we're delivering the Doropo Project, and we believe it has the scale and quality to be Centamin's next mine. While the ABC project has the scale and potential to also support commercial discovery, I'm delighted today to announce that we've doubled the gold inventory at ABC to 2 million ounces, and we still believe there's more to come from this project. And we believe in the ability of the drill bit to create value. Discovering, defining and delivering ounces of gold is fundamental to what we do.
When we look at our commitment to exploration, we've got a significant budget committed this year and next. And the key here, however, is to ensure that this dollar allocation is used as efficiently as possible, delivering the best outcomes in the shortest time frame and as cost effectively as possible. This can be to the use of geological knowledge and experience to focus work streams to the results, and it can also be knowing when to stop spending money as a project doesn't have the potential we're looking for.
And what do you want out of this new approach? Over the next 2 years, we will deliver operational consistency, targeting a plus/minus 10% reconciliation between resource to the mill, demonstrating better planning, better execution and more confidence in the mine. At Sukari, we will deliver a minimum underground mine life of 10 years, and we will deliver resource and reserve growth in West Africa. We'll grow the resources of ABC and we'll deliver reserves at Doropo. And by delivering into these strategies, we're targeting to adding 3 million ounces to the reserves within the next 2 years. These are ambitious targets, but ones I believe we can deliver based on the portfolio we have, the team in place and our robust financial position."
Rivaldo. Thanks for this and your other posts on this board. Very helpful. One more top up on CAPD for me, maybe tomorrow, and I'm fully loaded. Then hold for the foreseeable. SP growth potential looks very good and they even pay a dividend.
The good news just keeps on coming....
- positive drill results from PDI overnight , and PDI's share price is up 10% today - PDI are CAPD's largest shareholding
- Firefinch's share price remains at around the new highs
- Marvel Gold's share price has risen around 20% in the last few days, following news of Tanzanian approval for the spin-off and IPO of its graphite project (more work here for CAPD?)
- great new article from Mining journal on the CAPD web site - here's a direct link:
Https://www.capdrill.com/news/capital-limited-has-never-had-it-so-good-mining-journal-article
The article strongly hints at more mining service contracts coming soon, as per "reliable sources"!
I also like the "structural push into battery metals", such as "rare earths, nickel, graphite, and copper" - this would be pretty substantial to make the suggested non-gold exposure 40% in just the next 18 months.
Yeah, saw that post too. Be nice to be able to register and get those notes!!
Frustrating recent weakness in the share price, but I dare not sell, I can see this doing 10 or 20% in a couple of sessions at some point soon. I have high expectations for CAPD, and I believe we are due another update soon.
according to kaizenkid elsewhere, which implies Berenberg see 15.7p EPS for next year, compared to the 13.6p forecast by Tamesis Partners.
Quite a variation in price targets, as Tamesis go for 135p currently compared to Berenberg's 113p. The only consensus is that CAPD are materially undervalued at present!
Here's kaizenkid's summary FYI:
"Berenberg have published a note on CAPD, focsed on MSA Labs: Here are a few snippets:
Believe $50m of MSA revenue possibly by 2026, believe CAPD can be $250m revenue biz, peers to MSA like ALS have 34% EBITDA margins, the Chrysos technology revolutionises the testing process - an hour from start to finish vs. 1 day, low cost and more environmentally friendly, revised impact from MSA labs assumptions leads to 10% increase to revenues, 17% increase to EBITDA and 20% rise in EPS (all based on 2022 to 2026), price target 113. 7.2x PE their 2022 forecasts."
Anyone see any reasons for the drop today? Or is it just a top up opportunity?
Thanks
JL
CAPD have been tipped in this podcast posted on Stockopedia by Mark Simpson, described as "a private investor, market commentator, and author of the popular book Excellent Investing: How to Build a Winning Portfolio".
Apparently CAPD is the largest holding in his portfolio:
Https://app.stockopedia.com/content/thesis-for-investing-in-finncap-and-capital-858514?order=createdAt&sort=asc&mode=unthreaded
If like me you're not a Stocko subscriber, I managed to listen to it here (it's the latest episode - the CAPD discussion is around 9 minutes in):
Https://capitalemployed.fm/
recieves a BUY recommendation in IC companies report section today
This from Reuters suggests that Allied Gold are actually looking to IPO this year, which would be very good news:
Https://www.reuters.com/article/us-allied-gold-orion-ipo/africa-focused-miner-allied-gold-readies-for-london-listing-sources-idUSKCN2DD3Q5
good question. 5% down. will take about 5 weeks to get that 5% back now. this share is stuck at 79/80p. no matter what.
Why the persistent selling?
Does anyone know?
As outlined in today's presentation, CAPD expect Allied Gold Corp to IPO in the next 12 months, probably early next year.
A poster elsewhere has confirmed that CAPD's investment in Allied alone could be worth $20m - this would take CAPD's investment portfolio to a total of not far off £50m - this against a total m/cap of just £156m.
Here's his summary of CAPD's investment portfolio and the potential Allied Gold IPO:
"The listed stakes are worth just over $30m, despite some selling down of some of the stakes, (although some cash has been put back into PDI.)
The unlisted, which is mainly Allied Gold, was valued at $10.9m but may well have increased in value. Allied are looking to list in London later this year so we may well get a market value for that going forward. They are looking to raise at least $500m to fund their expansion plans which suggest that CAPD's 2% (IIRC) cannot be worth less than $10m and is probably closer to $20m (assuming the raise & listing goes ahead as planned)."
Thanks for the update Rivaldo, sounds positive on all fronts. I meant to attend this morning but couldn't make it in the end.
The presentation was very, very buoyant and confident about all areas of the business.
The CEO's view was that the business could get to $500m revenue, of which about 50% would be non-drilling.
It was confidently expressed a few times that they believe their industry (or customers in particular) are in the early-stages of the positive cycle given that there had been a decade of under-investment by those customers.
Good to hear that CAPD are looking to expand and diversify into mining for rare earths/battery metals etc like lithium.
Also encouraging to hear too that the $3m plus value (anyne know precisely how much?) in the large unlisted investment in Allied Gold Corp is likely to be crystallised via an IPO in the next 12 months.
IMO the current share price is EXTREMELY undervalued.
Quick reminder - CAPD's InvestorMeet presentation is at 9.00 this morning.
He is been discharged not the big deal 145000 shares I have lots more share than that and I am only ordinary share holder
Bye then :)
Hint hint, time to get out.